Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
Million Dollar Arm Predictions
Disney will release this sports drama on May 16th, the same day as Godzilla. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Neighbors will also still be in play.
It is reportedly testing extremely well, a la The Blind Side, but I still wonder if it can catch on. It has many hurdles. Jon Hamm is obviously a respected actor with an iconic television role, but this does not always translate into cinematic drawing power. Baseball movies tend to be fairly soft performers, particularly in the 21st century: for every 42, there are a couple Fever Pitches and Trouble with the Curves. Competition for the core male audience is fierce, too, so staying power will surely be the studio's goal rather than an explosive opening.
Predictions?
11/61
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Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:10 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68236 Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
I hope this bombs worse than Sabotage.
$5m opening / $9m total
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Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:06 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36948
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
The early screening at Cinemacon had VERY positive reviews. BOM is calling it The Blind Side of baseball, it could have decent legs.
Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:35 pm
bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
Disney is offering Sneak Previews for this on May 10.
Quote:
Disney said today that it has added sneak previews of its Jon Hamm-starring baseball pic Million Dollar Arm on the night of Saturday, May 10. Those screenings come ahead of the planned May 16 wide release, which is unchanged. The move comes as the marketing ramps up for the based-on-a-true-story pic, about a fading sports agent (Hamm) who hatches a plot to turn a pair of Indian cricket players into major league baseball players. Disney boss Alan Horn said at CinemaCon last month that the movie scored higher than any other movie he has ever tested — either at Disney or his former home Warner Bros — and exhibitors were talking it up after a screening. Tom McCarthy wrote the script and Craig Gillespie directed.
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48677 Location: Arlington, VA
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
I'll go with $80M total.
Mon Apr 28, 2014 10:31 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36948
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
I so wanted to choose this in Magnus's Summer game but yeah this could do really well. I am thinking a good medium-size hit for $18m opening and good $80m total.
Disney is offering Sneak Previews for this on May 10.
Ooh, when's the last time Disney did that? I remember they did it a lot in the 90s - I often saw TV spots where the announcer guy would say "Sneak previews start [date]!"
Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:22 am
BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
Thing is so many movies have been "testing through the roof" recently haven't they? I'm not sure what that particular track record actually is.
I think Neighbours is one of them. I'm sure there were at least 2-3 more mentioned, perhaps Godzilla, Apes, Dragon 2 and Get On up or something.
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Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:46 am
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23258 Location: Melbourne Australia
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
Should clear 100m. It's a great alternative to the three comic book and monster blockbusters dominating the month.
It might not open big enough to get past $100m IMO. If its really really good then maybe but I think it will end up close to $80m than $100m.
Wed Apr 30, 2014 2:55 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68236 Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
It looks like a DTV drama.
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Thu May 01, 2014 1:22 am
BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
I should never believe a single "tracking through the roof" statement again.
Better than anything at Disney/WB and yet audience score is already down to low 70s on Flixster?
WHAT crock.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
Fri May 23, 2014 2:51 pm
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36948
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
Well the opening wasn't good and apparently the hold over holiday weekend wasn't good as well. I am really surprised that it tested well in early screenings even though I haven't seen the movie myself yet.
Wed May 28, 2014 9:42 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68236 Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
Algren wrote:
$5m opening / $9m total
Yep, I was the closest predictor yet again.
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Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:56 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68236 Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
Yeah, IF....which I doubt it will do.
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Sun Jun 08, 2014 10:36 am
DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15497 Location: Everywhere
Re: Million Dollar Arm Predictions
I had it under 50m, I'm sure you could find others in the total madness game.
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