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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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 Summer benchmark disappoint/breakout: Fault & EoT Basically let's put out the benchmarks for disappointing and breakout opening/total numbers for a movie. DOMESTIC ONLY.
This week is ofcourse Godzilla
We can then come up with a number closest to the latest numbers.
Godzilla:
Disappointing - $60m/$150m
Breakout - $95m/$305m
Let's put the numbers before the movie releases like Friday.
Last edited by Jack Sparrow on Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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| Fri May 16, 2014 8:58 am |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm
Posts: 8889
Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz What would you consider something like $35m/$305m?  _________________
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| Fri May 16, 2014 9:14 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
Posts: 7195
Location: Wisconsin
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz I agree with the disappointing level. I think it's a breakout if it hits 85M OW or 250M Domestic total. I have to factor in the genre here. Yes it's being marketed as a disaster movie, but it's still a monster movie. Even King Kong only did 218M, and that had better reviews, the holiday season, and director Peter Jackson hot off LOTR. Expectations are too high for this.
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| Fri May 16, 2014 9:19 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Price wrote: What would you consider something like $35m/$305m? That's a good question But the answer is quite clear. Disastrous opening and not-possible legs
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| Fri May 16, 2014 9:27 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68263
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Disappointment: $39m or lower opening / $119m or lower total
Breakout: $81m or higher opening / $251m or higher total
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
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| Fri May 16, 2014 9:45 am |
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FILMO
The Original
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:19 am
Posts: 9808
Location: Suisse
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Algren wrote: Disappointment: $39m or lower opening / $119m or lower total
Breakout: $81m or higher opening / $251m or higher total Breakout I would say the same as Algren Dissapointment I go with 45/145. There is a lot of nerd and geek porn about this movie all over the Internet. So anything under that would suprise me. _________________Libs wrote: FILMO, I'd rather have you eat chocolate syrup off my naked body than be a moderator here.
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| Fri May 16, 2014 10:15 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Under $60 mil OW, and under $150 mil Total would be disappointing.
Over $75 mil OW, and over $225 mil Total would be a breakout.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Fri May 16, 2014 11:30 am |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am
Posts: 1742
Location: Calisota
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Disappointment: under 200M
Breakout: over 300M
_________________
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| Fri May 16, 2014 11:34 am |
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FILMO
The Original
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:19 am
Posts: 9808
Location: Suisse
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Opening Breakout incoming!
_________________Libs wrote: FILMO, I'd rather have you eat chocolate syrup off my naked body than be a moderator here.
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| Sat May 17, 2014 4:43 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm
Posts: 6665
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Godzilla:
Disappointing - $70m/$165m
Breakout - $93m/$220m
I used Godzilla (2008) as reference. That film did $229m adjusted.
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| Sat May 17, 2014 6:19 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Godzilla is surely looking to surprise OW. It should do $200m let's see how high it goes.
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| Sun May 18, 2014 3:07 am |
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Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 15197
Location: Planet Xatar
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz The following analysis from back in January had predicted Godzilla would flop, partially based on weak marketing... Is 'Godzilla' The 'John Carter' Of 2014?Clearly, the producers took heed of these warnings and poured the bank into marketing the hell out of this - - with special attention on misdirecting potential ticket buyers from finding out just how lame the actual story is. Is there any word on what the marketing budget was?
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| Sun May 18, 2014 7:12 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: X-Men and Blen X-Men (4-day):
Disappointing - $90m/$190m
Breakout - $140m/$300m
Blended(4-day):
Disappointing - $15m/$40m
Breakout - $35m/$100m
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| Mon May 19, 2014 4:11 am |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am
Posts: 7041
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: X-Men and Blen Breakout
Godzilla: 80/230
MDA: 18/67
X-Men: Above XM3/240
Blended: 20/75 (3-day)
_________________
Calls
Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2
Lorax over Despicable Me
Men in Black 3 Under 100m
Madagascar 3 Under 100m
Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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| Mon May 19, 2014 10:10 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: X-Men and Blen DoFP:
Under $120 mil 4 day OW, and under $225 mil Total would be disappointing.\
Over $140 mil 4-day OW, and over $300 mil Total would be a breakout.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon May 19, 2014 12:39 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
Posts: 7195
Location: Wisconsin
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: X-Men and Blen This movie is made for disappointment. Basically, many are saying if it doesn't out-open Last Stands nearly 123M Memorial Day weekend, it's a disappointment. That was the peak of the franchise coming off the most well-liked movie. While it had a fair amount of competition, it had less direct competition than DoFP does. The last two movies in the franchise had 3 day OW of about 55 and 53M. You have to give some credit for the goodwill from Frist Class, the time travel-mix-up-the-cast premise, inflation, and 3D. But even so, I wouldn't be disappointed unless it failed to hit 90M for the 4-day weekend, or 200M total.
I think it's a breakout if it does Last Stand #'s OW, and/or beats 250M total.
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| Tue May 20, 2014 8:34 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68263
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: X-Men and Blen X-Men:
Disappointing - $110m total
Breakout - $220m
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
LIBERATE HONG KONG
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| Tue May 20, 2014 9:54 am |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm
Posts: 8889
Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: X-Men and Blen SolC9 wrote: This movie is made for disappointment. Basically, many are saying if it doesn't out-open Last Stands nearly 123M Memorial Day weekend, it's a disappointment. That was the peak of the franchise coming off the most well-liked movie. While it had a fair amount of competition, it had less direct competition than DoFP does. The last two movies in the franchise had 3 day OW of about 55 and 53M. You have to give some credit for the goodwill from Frist Class, the time travel-mix-up-the-cast premise, inflation, and 3D. But even so, I wouldn't be disappointed unless it failed to hit 90M for the 4-day weekend, or 200M total.
I think it's a breakout if it does Last Stand #'s OW, and/or beats 250M total. I agree with this. I think X-Men is suffering from geek hype and general audiences won't be as enthusiastic. _________________
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| Tue May 20, 2014 2:37 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68263
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: X-Men and Blen Any talk of $300m is just retarded.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
LIBERATE HONG KONG
BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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| Wed May 21, 2014 8:29 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: X-Men and Blen Depends on your definition of "retarded", I guess.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Wed May 21, 2014 11:12 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Summer benchmark Disappoint/Breakout: This Week Malefice Maleficent:
Disappointing < $35m/$100m
Breakout > $75m/$200m
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| Wed May 28, 2014 5:45 am |
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Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 15197
Location: Planet Xatar
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Re: Summer Disappointment/Breakout benchmark: This Week Godz Bradley Witherberry wrote: The following analysis from back in January had predicted Godzilla would flop, partially based on weak marketing... Is 'Godzilla' The 'John Carter' Of 2014?Clearly, the producers took heed of these warnings and poured the bank into marketing the hell out of this - - with special attention on misdirecting potential ticket buyers from finding out just how lame the actual story is. Is there any word on what the marketing budget was?I found a source for Godzilla's marketing budget - - via Variety... Quote: “Godzilla” arrives with a $160 million production budget and when marketing and other costs are taken into account, Legendary Pictures says that it will need to make $380 million globally in order to break even....
CLARIFICATION: In an earlier version, the amount needed for “Godzilla” to break even was given as $450 million by a source close to the company. Legendary says that figure is incorrect. So it appears that Legendary are not further denying a marketing budget of ~$220m. ...and that was indeed money well spent - - the marketing was the best thing by far about the reboot Godzilla. If the marketing hadn't been so effective at tricking customers into theatres before WOM got out, it would have have been a BO bomb for the ages!
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| Wed May 28, 2014 6:44 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Summer benchmark disappoint/breakout: This Week Malefice Well $380m to break even is not good. It won't make more than $500m WW total.
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| Wed May 28, 2014 6:50 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Summer benchmark disappoint/breakout: This Week Malefice Disappointment: Less than $150 million
Breakout: More than $225 million
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
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| Wed May 28, 2014 6:14 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Summer benchmark disappoint/breakout: This Week Malefice Maleficent:
Under $50 mil OW, and under $150 mil Total would be disappointing.
Over $75 mil OW, and over $225 mil Total would be a breakout.
Million Ways:
Under $25 mil OW, and under $90 mil Total would be disappointing.
Over $40 mil OW, and over $150 mil Total would be a breakout.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Wed May 28, 2014 6:16 pm |
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