The footage at Cinemacon was supposedly fantastic, Leo is one the worlds biggest stars, and the novel is still quite popular. Opens christmas day, what do you think?

I see it as the major christmas wild card. I would be very surprised at anything under 100 million, though a random 300 million gross wouldn't be too shocking either tbh, the material is rich enough

Leo has two movies opening Christmas Day? Sweet.

300 million would be really shocking imo.

Isn't this going to be released in 3D? I wonder how that's going to work.
I think I need to see a trailer first but I'm thinking less than 150 now.

Don't remind me!

I am still so disappointed Baz is wasting his time on an adaptation instead of original work.





(Please, please, please let me be wrong!)

There are so many variables. Oscar nominations, for example. If it connects with critics and audiences in a big way and becomes a word-of-mouth hit/Oscar player, it can go further than if reviews are similar to Australia's notices.

This will be the second time DiCaprio has two movies out at Christmas: Catch Me If You Can and Gangs of New York were released just five days apart during the holiday season in 2002. His 2012 movies even have a similar dynamic. One an ultra-violent period revenge drama, the other a touch lighter and more, shall we say, "humane."

I definitely feel Gatsby, on prestige and name recognition alone, can reach 90 mil. How much further it goes will depend on how deeply audiences are moved or enchanted by this particular version of the iconic story.

It is really going to depend on critical reaction. If it is critically reviled like J Edgar it will be a disappointment, but if it is an Oscar contender it could do 150-200.

www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f ... &p=1167332


Excel, is your real name Baz Luhrman?

hehe excel's Australia prediction was legendary.

Yeah I can see Gatsby doing $80-$130m which would be great.

$90 at most.

Leo is the only big drawl to this film IMO.

EVERYTHING depends upon the quality of the movie. If Luhrman makes another glorious mess I wouldn't be surprised at an Australia type run, a little better since it's a known property. If he makes a cohesive film that wins awards and everyone loves than yeah, 200m+ is definitely in play.

Indeed. More or less impossible to predict with any accuracy at this point. It entirely depends on how the film is received. Though I do believe 80-90 mil. is the floor for this between DiCaprio, the holiday release, and the fact it's based on one of the most widely read and highly regarded novels of the 20th century.

But basically it is just the last factor, right? Because DiCaprio + holiday release...well, I'm thinking of Revolutionary Road and Blood Diamond wich certainly didn't get very close to $80-90 million.

It also needs to be actually good. J. Edgar has shown that DiCaprio's draw is not that strong if the film isn't good.

On the other hand, you didn't mention the 3D bonus. Now that might help (especially if it is as good as the early reports of the footage suggest)

It's also the type of film it is. A tragic love story set among the Roaring Twenties elite. Way more accessible than the relentless, grim Revolutionary Road.

Gatsby is a very romantic, mysterious role. I believe there will be a lot of excitement to see DiCaprio play it, particularly among his legion female fans.

verrrrry interesting trailer. idk what to make of it.

I'm thinking 50-60 though. Regardless of the novel, his movies have a limited appeal as the box office of everything he's done proves.

A billion dollars.

Romeo + Juliet and Moulin Rouge! adjust to 80 mil. or so. I would say this is the floor for Gatsby. The trailer has generated a lot of conversation and interest. And this, as I said above, is such a perfect role for DiCaprio. It's the type of role people truly want to see him in, I feel. The debonair, charismatic, mysterious romantic hero.

I doubt this will get Oscar nominations outside of technical categories. I don't see reviews being much better than they were for Australia. Maybe a 70-80 Million gross.

So, with the May release date what do ya'll think this will do?

I feel like the opening could be either high 20's or it could push over 40 million if the marketing is aggressive, I think the interest is definitely there.

150m+, gonna be huge!

36/108

60-75 Million total.

45/130.

36m | 155m