So, in a strange twist, the final Twilight might be fairly hard to predict.

It might disappoint opening weekend and have fairly decent holds but I really think it will do GREAT opening weekend and then just nose dive, unless it is actually good and fans see it more than once.

Which is never what happens. Deathly Hallows Part 2 had incredible reviews and managed an A CinemaScore, but it still barely pulled over a 2.0 multiplier.

BD2 180m
Honest Abe 20m

I believe Skyfall's breakout may have put a dent a little bit into Twilight's opening. It will open better than part 1 but won't exceed $150M OW.

Why would that put a dent in Breaking Dawn? Most people seeing Skyfall wouldn't be seeing Breaking Dawn.

Yeah Skyfall have 0 impact on BD. They could have opened on the same weekend and the effect would still be minimal.

I agree with Jack Sparrow and movies35, Skyfall won't affect BD's OW - completely different audience.

Skyfall skewed older male anyhow. 60% male, 75% over age 25.

I don't know about you, but I've seen PLENTY of Grandpas on bro dates seeing the previous Twilight films.

All kidding aside, I believe there's a certain older niche demographic that will come out for this, but only for the late shows.

Is that because they don't want to seem creepy for liking a tween vampire-werewolf movie?

mtc 150 twilight 17 lincoln {nm} notfabio on Nov 12, 18:29

rs twilight mid 160s {nm} notfabio on Nov 12, 18:30

No RS number available for Lincoln.

Hm, percentage-wise the difference isn't much for Breaking Dawn, so that's still pretty good.

That'd be a really nice opening for Lincoln.

Tracking has proved to be useless when it comes to HUGE movies. Still those are concerning signs for Twilight but then again the probability does state that the numbers are close to MTC most of the times and even with those numbers BD2 will become biggest opener of the series.

The MTC vs RS difference could indicate anything as low as $140m or as high as $160m. Will probably be close to the MTC number.

Who is more accurate for these mega openers?

There is no way it opens lower than BD1. I think a slightly bigger opening from New Moon for $145m (still a decrease of audience)

I don't believe BD2 will end up very high in the end but it looks like the first 6 reviews are positive including THR and Variety. Would be interesting to see if there is any slight impact on the legs if this movie turns out good.

It's because they're grampires, duh .

Legs will likely be no better than they were for any of the sequels. But I am impressed the first 6 reviews are positive.

1. BREAKING DAWN: PART 2 - 138.96 MILLION (New)
2. SKYFALL - 46.83 MILLION (-47%)
3. WRECK-IT RALPH - 23.77 MILLION (-28%)
4. LINCOLN - 17 MILLION (New - To wide release anyway)
5. FLIGHT - 9.9 MILLION (-33%)
6. ARGO - 4.7 MILLION (-29%)
7. TAKEN 2 - 2.648 MILLION (-34%)
8. PITCH PERFECT - 1.749 MILLION (-32%)
9. HERE COMES THE BOOM - 1.69 MILLION (-33%)
10. CLOUD ATLAS - 1.3 MILLION (-51%)

I hope Summit fudges the numbers for PERKS a bit and gives it enough to place it at #10 . It actually could be if it weren't for CLOUD ATLAS. Should be able to do above $900,000 for the weekend which will be better than the other holdovers, IMO.

I still can't believe people are doing the same mistake of underestimating BD2's OW. The same thing happened with DH2. I think this will out open New Moon for sure. May not breakout as big as HP (because of 3D) but the opening day will be huge.

I know this will probably open bigger but right now BD2 feels like a ~120M opener to me.

I don't really sense an insane amount of buzz. It will do great but I only see a slight increase in opening over the last. I do think Thursday night showings will do better than for the last because 10:00 is a much more reasonable time for a school night than midnight.

BTW, Pitch Perfect will probably drop big. It held this well last weekend because there is literally nothing out there for female audiences. But with Twilight out now...