Three star-driven studio comedies come out during the second half of December. Which will earn the most? This Is 40 is rated R for sexual content, crude humor, pervasive language and some drug material. Parental Guidance is rated PG for some rude humor. The Guilt Trip does not yet have a rating, though I suspect it will be PG-13.

Opening December 19th via Paramount:



Opening December 21st via Universal:



Opening Christmas Day via Fox:

I am going with The Guilt Trip. The trailer plays well. I believe the star pairing will connect with audiences in two distinct demographic groupings. Also, for what it's worth so many years after her screen heyday, Streisand seldom headlines flops.

I s'pose Parental Guidance might be a hit, but it almost feels too outdated. It reminds me in this way of the modestly performing Old Dogs: an easy hit if this were the mid 1990s, a harder sell to families now.

This Is 40 is a hard one to predict. This may be a return to formula for Apatow, but it is also his first film to so strongly emphasize his wife as the star, not just a member of the ensemble. It is also rated R, so it definitely won't be the choice for families going to the theatre over the holiday season. I'm not sure how much the Knocked Up connection ("sort-of sequel") will mean to audiences either.

I'd say Rudd is just as big as Rogen was in '06 though. He might even be more liked.

"From the director of The Proposal...", I think some audiences have learned their lessons well from that movie and know to avoid this one (The Guilt Trip). But it will still appeal to older women.

Parental Guidance looks like a filler for the holiday schedule.

This Is 40 boasts an ensemble of likable supporting cast. Its appeal to the young crowd makes it the winner of holiday comedies.

The Guilt Trip - $80 million
Parental Guidance - $45 million
This Is 40 - $100 million

The Guilt Trip will probably come out on top due to the cross-generational appeal, although This Is 40 should be a hit and Parental Guidance could post solid numbers too.

This is 40 looks the better movie. Paul Rudd is more funny than the others.

The Guilt Trip has cross-generational appeal?? I think it has cross-generational hatred. Just because it stars two people from different generations does not mean that it will automatically appeal to them. They'll just both hate the corny cheese-fest with a passion.

It is so sad that we have nothing in November and then all these movies are going to eat up each others business. Aside from Summer and animation movies this year has turned into another scheduling mess.

I think Parental Guidance is the perfect holiday season movie even though it is outdated. It is also coming out last which will hurt its chances at BO.

Guilt Trip should make the most if it can generate okish WOM but it can get lost cause it will see one after another competition in the coming days.

This is 40 doesn't look as funny and Rudd movies are not very consistent at BO plus I don't see Mann pulling good comedy crowds.

It will be between Guilt Trip and This is 40. For now I am going with Guilt Trip.

I see no evidence of this. 2006 Rogen is a year before the Rogen of Knocked Up and Superbad. Dinner for Schmucks? How Do You Know? Our Idiot Brother? Wanderlust? I almost wonder if Rudd's popularity has cooled since 2007/8.

Rudd is more liked than Rogen now. Rogen's popularity was big and over pretty soon because he's an annoying wanker.

This is 40 easily.

This Is 40, but maybe The Guilt Trip could breakout as well like The Proposal did.

All three will do well. Parental guidance is the only new family alternative to The Hobbit released in December. It will get past 70m.

The other two will share 180-200m between them.

I can't see Parental Guidance doing the better of the other two. I hope atleast one of these movies reach $100m

The Guilt Trip will clearly win the older demographic with Streisand and Seth Rogen is probably on par with Paul Rudd so I think it will beat out This is 40.

I think The Guilt Trip has the most appeal. Then This Is 40, though that might seriously under-perform. Parental Guidance I could see doing solidly. Won't be surprised if 40 and Guidance end up close.

It's amazing how far Apatow's draw as a director fell after Funny People. Three years ago This Is Forty would be a lock for $100M. I think it can still make it, but it'll have to be his best movie ever.

Ironic considering Funny People was his best movie.

Not real interested in seeing any of these, to be honest.

I think all could be solid hits if they were spread out a little more.

I wouldn't say that. Three years ago people thought unny People was a lock for $100 million too.

Parental Guidance seems innocuous enough to get like a Yours Mine and Ours run...not sure if that was any good (the run) but I can't see a Cheaper by the Dozen total.

Parental Guidance has absolutely no chance to make better than either of those comedies. Billy Crystal hasn't produced a hit since Analyze This back in 1999. Between 1991 (City Slickers) and Analyze This, he had dealt with a number of flops. The marketing is terrible and it doesn't help the premiere was cancelled. I see this making 1/3 of Cheaper by the Dozen's total.

My vote still goes to The Guilt Trip.

I think this could go to Guidance.

I am going to change my vote to This is 40 now. The marketing seems a little better.

A lot of people I talk to think This Is 40 looks bad. I don't see it connecting in a big way at all.