Assassin's Creed- 10/17
Sing- 30/47
Passengers- 18/32
Why Him? 7/10
Fences- 7

What a fucking mess.

Christmas Eve falling on Saturday means the opening weekend will be depressed, but the multipliers will be insane, 7+ generally.

Still think Passengers will open in the $25-30m range despite horrid reviews.

Rogue One-58%

It could actually increase week 3 if I'm correct.

I believe Passengers' reviews are bad enough to notably hurt it. Its Rotten Tomatoes score will sour many people on it. Reminds me of an December film from a few years ago, The Tourist: can't-miss star combination tempered by fairly toxic critical notices.

There is a lineage for Assassin's Creed, too: a niche, male-oriented genre alternative to a more widely accessible Christmas release. Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem against National Treasure: Book of Secrets. 47 Ronin against The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. I believe enough of the video-game fan base will turn out for a respectable opening, though legs will almost certainly be poor for December.

On paper, Why Him? once reminded me of Daddy's Home or the Fockers franchise, but the ad campaign seems muted, and it ended up being rated R.

Five-day:

Sing - 53
Assassin's Creed - 21
Passengers - 20

Three-day:

Why Him? - 12

Christmas Day:

Fences - 10

Depressed Saturday because of Christmas Eve we will get lower opening weekends, but huge business on Christmas and the week after)

Rogue One -60%
Sing- 30m (47m 5-day)
Passengers-24m (37m 5-day)
Assassin's Creed-12m (18m 5-day)
Why Him?-10m (3-day)

Sing- 33/50 (5-Day)
Passengers - 22/35 (5-Day)
Assassin's Creed - 14/20 (5-Day)
Why Him? - 9 (3-Day)
Fences - 8

Rogue One -56%

Five-day:
Passengers $34m
Assassin's Creed $16m

I believe the star power is too great and hip at the moment to have bad reviews stop Passengers, though I hope it does because it looks shit. Assassin's Creed is DOA, in my opinion. Nobody is talking about it. Does anybody care?

Christmas/New Year's Eve falling on Saturday is my least favorite holiday daily pattern.

I remember being kinda blindsided by the terrible drops in 2005 (when it hadn't happened since 1994).

I hope Sing just does ok... it's such a missed opportunity.

5-day:
Sing - 48
Passengers - 28
Assassin's Creed - 25

Why Him - 11 (3-day)

Yeah, the Illumination gravy train needs some derailing.

Sing looks hilarious. I'm thinking more a $70m five-day.

SING! - 29.137 MILLION (3-Day)/43.323 MILLION (5-Day)
WHY HIM? - 17.077 MILLION (3-Day)
PASSENGERS - 15.458 MILLION (3-Day)/25.382 MILLION (5-Day)
ASSASSIN'S CREED - 13.488 MILLION (3-Day)/20.566 MILLION (5-Day)
FENCES - 12.655 MILLION (3-Day)/19.375 MILLION (4-Day)

Sing will do a bit better than Hop.

I really wonder how wide La La Land will expand.

Star power? Neither Chris nor Jennifer are draws. At least not in a sci-fi movie. If it was a romantic comedy or smth women might be tempted to check this out. I expect this to bomb hard. Especially considering the reviews now.

Not star power in the sense that Denzel or Hanks has, but they are both attractive, popular, likable stars, and being in the same film will appeal to the 12-24 year old range that have liked films that they've previously starred (incl. Jurassic World, The Hunger Games etc.). They are draws for the right crowd, and this demo doesn't care so much about reviews. But did you look at my predictions? I mean, a $34m five-day ain't exactly great. I'm not exactly claiming this will be 2016 domestic #1...

Passengers will do fine with the masses and have good word of mouth. It's perfectly enjoyable popcorn entertainment that washes over easily and should be a date-night choice. It's basically Titanic in space

And you know that how?

Yeah I haven't seen it but figure a B+/A- CinemaScore is in order.

I almost forgot Live by Night is coming out in limited release on Christmas. Doesn't seem to be generating much heat considering the pedigree. I wonder how reviews will be.

It's embargoed until right before the release but people on Twitter have been hinting that it's really bad.

Patriot's Day is also coming out in limited release this week. That's another one that's flying under the radar. It will probably do well in wide release though.

I always felt that "the pedigree" isn't actually that impressive anyway. Ben Affleck, while he's made a few decent films, isn't exactly Martin Scorsese. He's still stuck in a strange place between Batman, his comedy past, and his aspirations to be respected.

Yeah I also heard about that which sucks, because it looked awesome from the trailers, but who knows The Accountant didn't get great reviews either and I really enjoyed that one. I'm way more bummed out about Assassin's Creed though. It had so much potential, but apparently it's one of the worst movies of the year. I'll still see it eventually, but what a disappointing way to end the year. Of course I still have La La Land, Fences and Patriots Day to look forward too, but I wasn't planning on rushing out to see any of them.

You should rush out to see La La Land.