The previous trilogy broke all December records and even more impressive is the fact that they did not open over 3-day weekend.

The Hobbit has slightly different release schedule (opening a weekend earlier than the previous three) but they then this time it is opening over 3-day weekend.

The opening will be BIG regardless of the legs. This movie will also decide the fate of rest of the trilogy (ugghhh...)

I am currently predicting a modest $90m but I can see it opening as high as $125m.

P.S. Last year Sherlock Holmes looked like the biggest blockbuster but it did not open as big mostly because of Mission Impossible being HUGE at the same time. This year it looks like Skyfall is providing that competition but it released a month earlier and I don't see ANYTHING in December's slot that can steal Hobbit's thunder as much as MI4 did to Sherlock Holmes 2.

[Poll is up till Dec 13 and you can re-vote till Dec 7th]

Forgot to mention that 3D will also help in its OW, the trailers and teasers are making it look like an event 3D movie and then ofcourse the addition of 48 frames.

Will the sun rise tomorrow?

Well its winter here so the sun is not coming for days....even if it rises it will be cloudy for my sight to see it I do believe there are lots of naysayers to December OW record.

Also this is more of OW prediction...so put yours in.

What, no option for $150m?

Kidding. But $120m is on the cards.

Where do you live Jack sparrow?

Hobbit will break the record easily.

Currently I am in India (New Delhi), will be going to Malaysia (in two days) and then back to Singapore

Changed the title to just the OW prediction. I hope this is fine with Naz and Gez

You are giving our company of dwarves, hobbit and wizard a run for their money, in terms of covering a distance.

38¢

Well middle-earth didn't have air vehicles

Ha Ha Ha. Well I can claim that I will eat my own face if it makes only $38c over OW.

I used to think it wouldn't open very high, but after seeing Skyfall's performance.... I mean, James Bond isn't that big of a deal, and yet it opened to $88M. How hard will it be for Hobbit to open that high as well, a prequel to a hugely popular franchise?

The highest gross in the franchise is $168M.

Wrong, it's one of the most enduring franchises.

Skyfall's over performance is no indicator for Hobbit's success. Skyfall looked really good and the marketing was spot on.

Now Hobbit is looking good and the marketing is great but there is always comparison to the original trilogy which is why I have a doubt that this won't see as big of a jump as the LOTR movies (adjusted) over OW.

Well for starters there will be a jump due to the fact that it's opening on Friday.

I do think its those other factors but Hobbit opening to 3-day OW of ROTK will not be great, actually even just the 3-day OW adjusted numbers will be just good but not great IMO. ROTK's 3-day OW adjusts to $95,635,100. Even if it opens THAT big it will still be lesser than ROTK cause it would have grossed much more if it was released over 3-day.

As of now I don't see Hobbit getting to $95m OW, more like $90m.

Well it has a lot less hype than RotK, that's for sure.

However, look at Toy Story 3, which opened to $110M. 11 years seperated it from TS2 (while 9 years seperated RotK and Hobbit). Nobody asked for TS3, everyone understood that it was made only to milk the franchise. And LotR was much bigger than TS2. Yet it had a huge opening. Hobbit at least has some reason to exist beside milking the LotR franchise. I'm not saying Hobbit will necessarily open to $110M, but now that I think about it, I see nothing stopping it from opening that high.

In fact, now that I think about it, I don't understand why just a week ago, I didn't think Hobbit would reach even $70M on its opening weekend.

Yes I agree the hype for this movie is lower than ROTK which is also the reason I don't see it getting to $100m OW. Plus the source material is not as popular as LOTR, then the scope is small. All these factors I could agree will result in this one opening lesser than adjusted LOTR openings.

The only point I can't agree is "since Skyfall opened this big Hobbit should have no difficulty in opening more than that".

It's a mid tier franchise in the USA. Or rather, it was.

Look, ROTK would have opened to $150m today adjusted for 3-day, inflation and 3D / IMAX. Hobbit will easily break $100m.

136 million

Oh, i wish...

I never said Bond is bigger than LOTR, where did you get that ?

I still don't see it getting $100m OW