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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
That does include the $600,000 Tuesday night showings though . I really don't think it will do great over the weekend. We'll see. Legs aren't likely to be that good either. Under 50 Million is pretty much a sure-thing, IMO.
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Thu May 17, 2012 9:50 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Well my game took a turn for the worst after the first week. 1 of 5 on gross predictions so far. Yuck.
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Sat May 19, 2012 7:29 am |
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baumer
Star Trek XI
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:48 pm Posts: 343
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Dictator could make a run for 60 mill.
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Sun May 20, 2012 12:01 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23787 Location: Classified
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Also 1/5, unless The Dictator has amazing legs.
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Sun May 20, 2012 4:43 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Omni is 5/5 so far.
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Sun May 20, 2012 7:16 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
What an interesting flop What to Expect When You're Expecting is. Even the lowest predictions will prove high by a wide margin. Not too often you see a male (nerd)-dominated Internet forum wildly over-predicting a women's-interest comedy.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon May 21, 2012 4:12 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
It's pretty shocking it flopped so hard. Maybe they should put out some new TV spots pronto.
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Mon May 21, 2012 4:34 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
It more or less grossed half of Baby Mama's adjusted opening. Bizarre.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon May 21, 2012 4:49 am |
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erikdean
The Dark Knight
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:59 pm Posts: 721 Location: Different places!
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Question: is G.I. Joe II's release date change going to be somehow accommodated for the contest?
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Wed May 23, 2012 4:36 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
erikdean wrote: Question: is G.I. Joe II's release date change going to be somehow accommodated for the contest? No, it's comes with the territory. It wrecks my answer for question 5, and makes 15 100M grossers this summer that much more unlikely for my question 6. However, it does open the window a bit for Magic Mike, which could help me, though the demos don't exactly crossover much.
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Wed May 23, 2012 4:52 pm |
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erikdean
The Dark Knight
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:59 pm Posts: 721 Location: Different places!
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Well, poop.
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Wed May 23, 2012 4:54 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
erikdean wrote: Well, poop. Well, I'm pretty sure. You can wait for official confirmation from Casey.
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Wed May 23, 2012 5:00 pm |
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baumer
Star Trek XI
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:48 pm Posts: 343
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
SolC9 wrote: erikdean wrote: Question: is G.I. Joe II's release date change going to be somehow accommodated for the contest? No, it's comes with the territory. It wrecks my answer for question 5, and makes 15 100M grossers this summer that much more unlikely for my question 6. However, it does open the window a bit for Magic Mike, which could help me, though the demos don't exactly crossover much. It doesn't come with the territory at all. This is unprecedented. When has a film ever been dropped a month before it comes out? and not an after thought movie, a freakin tentpole for the summer. There should be something done because of this. I'm allowing changes in my summer game, I can't see how you don't here too.
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Wed May 23, 2012 5:58 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Here is the plan since G.I. Joe decided to be crazy and move to March:
Total Gross Predictions
Obviously, the total gross predictions for G.I. Joe Retaliation are thrown out. No movie will take its place.
Summer Top 5 Predictions
Anyone who included G.I. Joe in their Top 5 will be adjusted based on their total predictions. (Ex: Baumer had it at #5, so I am placing The Amazing Spider-Man in that position, as he had it as his next highest grossing movie.)
Box Office Questions
#4 - What film that was #1 on at least one weekend will have the biggest 2nd weekend drop?
--This question is unfortunately going to be thrown out as 7 people had G.I. Joe as the answer.
#5 - Which sequel will have the best total gross retention to its previous movie - Madagascar 3, G.I. Joe Retaliation, Ice Age: Continental Drift, The Bourne Legacy, Step Up 4, or The Expendables 2?
--For those who picked G.I. Joe, I will use the total gross predictions for each movie and pick the next movie with the best total gross retention from its previous movie.
#6 - How many films will gross over $100 million?
--For those who predicted G.I. Joe to cross $100 million, I will subtract one from their prediction.
If this does not sound fair, please feel free to say. My goal is to avoid everyone changing any predictions, as the point of these contests is to really capture predictions pre-season.
This is a fairly rare scenario, as usually the movies that jump ship are the small ones that do not affect many box office questions. I am quite surprised.
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Wed May 23, 2012 6:12 pm |
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baumer
Star Trek XI
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:48 pm Posts: 343
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Very fair. I like it.
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Wed May 23, 2012 6:27 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
I wish we could predict another movie's total gross. Maybe Lawless or Seeking a Friend for the End of the World.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Wed May 23, 2012 6:28 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
David wrote: I wish we could predict another movie's total gross. Maybe Lawless or Seeking a Friend for the End of the World. Ya me too. The only reason I didn't have backups in place this time was due to the fact that I didn't want to overcomplicate Question #10. At this point, it would be quite difficult to get all 34 players to predict another movie.
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Wed May 23, 2012 6:41 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23787 Location: Classified
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
I think all Dark Shadows predictions should be tossed out the window as well.
Otherwise fair.
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Wed May 23, 2012 6:44 pm |
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erikdean
The Dark Knight
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:59 pm Posts: 721 Location: Different places!
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
baumer wrote: Very fair. I like it. I agree, and way more than I was expecting! Thanks Casey!
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Wed May 23, 2012 9:28 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Charts are updated on Page 6. Predictions updated on the Google Doc.
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Wed May 23, 2012 10:32 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
I really appreciate your hard work in having to figure out what to do in this situation. I feel for ya. But your plan seems perfect. Nice job.
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Thu May 24, 2012 9:00 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Wow Casey! I totally didn't expect you to do that. Awesome.
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Thu May 24, 2012 9:04 am |
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_axiom
The Wall
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am Posts: 16163 Location: Croatia
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
So far it seems like the points for predictions will go to the high end predictions (The Avengers) or low end ones (Battleship, Dark Shadows, The Dictator, What to Expect When You're Expecting), just like it happened in the spring game most of the time.
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Thu May 24, 2012 9:06 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
be.redy wrote: So far it seems like the points for predictions will go to the high end predictions (The Avengers) or low end ones (Battleship, Dark Shadows, The Dictator, What to Expect When You're Expecting), just like it happened in the spring game most of the time. Which really sucks for me since I'm #2 on the most average predictions list
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Thu May 24, 2012 7:43 pm |
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baumer
Star Trek XI
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:48 pm Posts: 343
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Re: KJ's Summer Contest 2012 - Predictions Overview on Page
Flava'd vs The World wrote: I think all Dark Shadows predictions should be tossed out the window as well.
Otherwise fair. Why would tossing DS's predictions out the window be fair? That seems the definiton of unfair to me.
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Fri May 25, 2012 10:25 am |
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