That does include the $600,000 Tuesday night showings though . I really don't think it will do great over the weekend. We'll see. Legs aren't likely to be that good either. Under 50 Million is pretty much a sure-thing, IMO.

Well my game took a turn for the worst after the first week. 1 of 5 on gross predictions so far. Yuck.

Dictator could make a run for 60 mill.

Also 1/5, unless The Dictator has amazing legs.

Omni is 5/5 so far.

What an interesting flop What to Expect When You're Expecting is. Even the lowest predictions will prove high by a wide margin. Not too often you see a male (nerd)-dominated Internet forum wildly over-predicting a women's-interest comedy.

It's pretty shocking it flopped so hard. Maybe they should put out some new TV spots pronto.

It more or less grossed half of Baby Mama's adjusted opening. Bizarre.

Question: is G.I. Joe II's release date change going to be somehow accommodated for the contest?

No, it's comes with the territory. It wrecks my answer for question 5, and makes 15 100M grossers this summer that much more unlikely for my question 6. However, it does open the window a bit for Magic Mike, which could help me, though the demos don't exactly crossover much.

Well, poop.

Well, I'm pretty sure. You can wait for official confirmation from Casey.

It doesn't come with the territory at all. This is unprecedented. When has a film ever been dropped a month before it comes out? and not an after thought movie, a freakin tentpole for the summer. There should be something done because of this. I'm allowing changes in my summer game, I can't see how you don't here too.

Here is the plan since G.I. Joe decided to be crazy and move to March:

Total Gross Predictions

Obviously, the total gross predictions for G.I. Joe Retaliation are thrown out. No movie will take its place.

Summer Top 5 Predictions

Anyone who included G.I. Joe in their Top 5 will be adjusted based on their total predictions. (Ex: Baumer had it at #5, so I am placing The Amazing Spider-Man in that position, as he had it as his next highest grossing movie.)

Box Office Questions

#4 - What film that was #1 on at least one weekend will have the biggest 2nd weekend drop?

--This question is unfortunately going to be thrown out as 7 people had G.I. Joe as the answer.

#5 - Which sequel will have the best total gross retention to its previous movie - Madagascar 3, G.I. Joe Retaliation, Ice Age: Continental Drift, The Bourne Legacy, Step Up 4, or The Expendables 2?

--For those who picked G.I. Joe, I will use the total gross predictions for each movie and pick the next movie with the best total gross retention from its previous movie.

#6 - How many films will gross over $100 million?

--For those who predicted G.I. Joe to cross $100 million, I will subtract one from their prediction.

If this does not sound fair, please feel free to say. My goal is to avoid everyone changing any predictions, as the point of these contests is to really capture predictions pre-season.

This is a fairly rare scenario, as usually the movies that jump ship are the small ones that do not affect many box office questions. I am quite surprised.

Very fair. I like it.

I wish we could predict another movie's total gross. Maybe Lawless or Seeking a Friend for the End of the World.

Ya me too. The only reason I didn't have backups in place this time was due to the fact that I didn't want to overcomplicate Question #10.

At this point, it would be quite difficult to get all 34 players to predict another movie.

I think all Dark Shadows predictions should be tossed out the window as well.

Otherwise fair.

I agree, and way more than I was expecting! Thanks Casey!

Charts are updated on Page 6. Predictions updated on the Google Doc.

I really appreciate your hard work in having to figure out what to do in this situation. I feel for ya. But your plan seems perfect. Nice job.

Wow Casey! I totally didn't expect you to do that. Awesome.

So far it seems like the points for predictions will go to the high end predictions (The Avengers) or low end ones (Battleship, Dark Shadows, The Dictator, What to Expect When You're Expecting), just like it happened in the spring game most of the time.

Which really sucks for me since I'm #2 on the most average predictions list

Why would tossing DS's predictions out the window be fair? That seems the definiton of unfair to me.