From THR:





http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/h ... ice-303773

If it can get to $70-80m today, it will blow past $150m for the weekend, because it would mean $50-60m Friday without midnight, or in another word, midnight would account for less than 30% of Friday total, much less frontloaded than those last few Twilight/HP films as we've been arguing; then it would mean $50m+ Sat is possible, and thus putting $160m+ in play.

60-80 million is a pretty big range. Still monstrous.

60M Friday would put this just above $160M for the weekend. OW would be in play

They can't make up their minds.

Non-midnight. That would be the non-midnight single day record, and would tie the adjusted non-midnight single day record

It's looking to have higher non-midnights than any film for which midnights are known, which is a bit shocking.

Also remember, DH2 opened in the summer, and its 47.76M Friday came after burning off 43.5M from midnights.

This is a March opener, and only pulled 19.75M for the midnights, with the third highest midnight PTA of all time. There's a lot of pent up demand for the evening shows right now, and that's why THR threw out that 80 million figure.

TDK, if I recall correctly, did somwhere near 35M in the summer in evening shows. This could feasibly hit, and surpass 40M.

There is just insane ammount of Hunger Games showtimes. It's like they are adding new shows all the time.

Fandango is unable to update the showtimes status for many cinemas because showtimes that are suppose to be available for sale are sold out when you click them. Cinemas are even doing interlocks which I haven't seen in a while.

Yeah it is a ridicoulous amount of showtimes. It's showing like every 15 minutes here and that somewhat makes it harder to track the amount of sellouts. I can tell you that there are already quite a few early evening sellouts and even more late night sellouts. I haven't seen that type of craziness since DH2.

So DH2 made $20m in matinees and then only $28m for the rest of the day?

Yes. DH2 was a Summer release, and had already burned off $63.5m of demand before evening shows.

TDK was at $18.5+12.5M through the matinees for $31M, and then clocked $36M more for the evening shows.

Both of these were summer releases. This is a March release; evening shows should (not will) be stronger.

aren't most colleges off this week?

I feel way out of touch - I didn't have it on my top 10 opening weekends of 2012 in January, and hadn't even heard of the books. Geez.

That this would now have any realistic shot at top OW of 2012 makes it the most impressive opening since HP 1 I think.

It's the most impressive opening ever by bar, IMO.

BOG also replied in an ensuing tweet:

WTF

I wonder if THR isn't taking into consideration just how much midnights boosted DH2's OD. If it's following the matinees of that movie, that'd put it at $49 million for the day, or $68-69 million. Now, if it is following that movie in matinees in MARCH compared to July, that'd definitely point to $50+ million for the day. But $60+? The highest adjusted Friday of all time w/o midnights is POTC2, which made $56 million, and that was in July, when matinee business is much more booming.

I'm gonna take these with a serious grain of salt, but remain optimistic because I really don't want to lose that $35.

Xia, that has to be Mid+Fri. 65 million is nearing single day market capacity

Of course it is. Check out his previous tweet a few posts up.

Yes, BOG tweets always include midnight.

Got it.

As has been stated, if $20m for matinees is true then i can't imagine it making less than $35m for the rest of the day as matinees-to-total-for-the-day ratio should be better in March than in summer.

+1

How in the world do you see this doing $55m for Friday and then have it not dropping on Saturday?

20m midnight + 20m matinee + 35m rest of day = 75m day 1????
Yay? Nay?