Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
Studio Estimates1. Moneyball - $6,750,000 - $6,750,000 2. The Lion King 3D - $6,050,000 - $45,596,000 3. Dolphin Tale - $5,110,000 - $5,110,000 4. Abduction - $3,800,000 - $3,800,000 5. Killer Elite - $3,500,000 - $3,500,000 6. Contagion - $2,625,000 - $51,182,000 7. Drive(2011) - $1,882,000 - $17,535,000 8. The Help - $1,310,000 - $151,354,000 9. Straw Dogs - $685,000 - $7,469,000 10. I Don't Know How She Does It - $677,000 - $6,643,000 . Warrior - $350,000 - $11,440,000 . Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $320,000 - $172,759,000 . Colombiana - $275,000 - $34,460,000 . Crazy Stupid Love - $250,000 - $81,536,000 . Machine Gun Preacher - $10,000 -$10,000 http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/--------------------------------------------------------------------- Nikki's Guestimates - Friday 11pm1. Moneyball (Sony) Week 1 [2,993 Theaters] Friday $6.8M, Estimated Weekend $20M, Estimated Cume $20M 2. The Lion King 3D (Buena Vista) Week 2 [2,330 Theaters] Friday $6.1M, Estimated Weekend $20M, Estimated Cume $60M 3. Dolphin Tale (Warner Bros.) Week 1 [3,507 Theaters] Friday $5M-$5.5M, Estimated Weekend $24M, Estimated Cume $24M 4. Abduction (Lionsgate) Week 1 [3,118 Theaters] Friday $4.2M, Estimated Weekend $11M, Estimated Cume $11M 5. Killer Elite (Open Road Films) Week 1 [2,986 Theaters] Friday $3.5M, Estimated Weekend $10M, Estimated Cume $10M 6. Contagion (Participant/Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,136 Theaters] Friday $2.8M, Estimated Weekend $9M, Estimated Cume $57.5M 7. Drive (FilmDistrict) Week 2 [2,904 Theaters] Friday $2M (-50%), Estimated Weekend $6M, Estimated Cume $21.6M 8. The Help (Participant/DreamWorks/Disney] Week 7 [2,695 Theaters] Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated cume $154.5M 9. I Don’t Know How She Does It (Weinstein Co) Week 2 [2,490 Theaters] Friday $700K (-55%), Estimated weekend $2M, Estimated Cume $8M 10. Straw Dogs (Sony) Week 2 [2,408 Theaters] Friday $600K (-62%), Estimated Weekend $1.8M, Estimated Cume $8.5M --------------------------------------------------------------------- Nikki's Guestimates - Friday 6pmDolphin Tale - more than $6m - $24M for the weekend Moneyball - $8M Friday - mid-$20sM for the weekend Abduction - $4.5M Friday - mid-teens for the weekend Killer Elite - $5M today - low teens for the weekend Lion King 3D - mid-teens for the weekend http://www.deadline.com/2011/09/first-b ... r-elite-4/
Last edited by Jack Sparrow on Sat Sep 24, 2011 1:13 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 1:09 am |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am Posts: 6245
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
Well, if accurate, pretty mediocre for Abduction, and pretty fantastic for everything else. 20m+ would be simply extraordinary for dolphin tale imo, and while there may be better candidates it's nice to have a breakout. Moneyball looking very very good too, 100m looks possible.
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:26 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
Numbers up now are a little different.
Despite competition from Dolphin Tale and a huge opening last weekend, The Lion King is holding up terrifically. It's really too bad it's already being released to Blu-ray October 4th as this could have added another 100 Million to its total.
Incredibly nice opening for Dolphin Tale and with that A+ CinemaScore rating it looks like legs will be great. Isn't this only the 16th movie to ever receive an A+?
I really want to know how Drive held up, even if I'm scared to find out.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:51 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
Her weekend projection on Dolphin Tale is way off. It'll be more like around $18m from a $5.5m start. The Lion King is the one to have a shot at $24m for the weekend.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:58 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
Yeah, Dolphin Tale would need more than a 60% increase on Saturday. I'm seeing a weekend close to 20 Million though if it does 5.5 Million for Friday. I'm thinking maybe a 50% Saturday increase. Would be cool if it could pass 20 Million.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:12 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
Very few films could achieve a $10K PTA on their second weekend of wide release when under 2,500 theaters. The Sixth Sense is the only one I saw from the few I searched. And The Lion King, a re-release, could do that this weekend. Pretty incredible.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:15 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
There are more up. Drive is estimated to have a 50% drop from last Friday to 2 Million. Please be true! It would be a bit better hold than I predicted and could end up getting to 30 Million if its drop isn't too steep. Surprisingly it appears to have held up better than I Don't Know How She Does It and Straw Dogs. Looks like the great reviews were able to win out over the poor WOM from audiences.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:19 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
First post updates with new numbers. As expected the numbers are way off from the initial guesstimates/projections.
This is turning out to be a really strong weekend. September 2011 could turn out bigger than expected with Top 3 movies of this weekend
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:09 am |
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Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm Posts: 15197 Location: Planet Xatar
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
DT FTW!
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:27 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48626 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
In terms of CinemaScore, Dolphin Tale got an A+ and Moneyball got an A, respectively.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:49 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:20 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Friday Number - Nikki's early Guestimates
BO has now the Top Five:
$6.75m MONEYBALL $6.05m LION KING $5.11m DOLPHIN $3.8m ABDUCTION $3.7m KILLER ELITE
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:14 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
Where did you get those numbers mark ? I can't seem to find them at BO
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:29 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
They're in the left column (text)
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:32 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
mark66 wrote: They're in the left column (text) aah i see thanks
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:37 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
It's very surprising, but The Lion King's re-release will essentially DOUBLE the number of weeks The Lion King has been at #1 in total. As huge as the original film was, it was only at #1 for two weekends.
The top 10 tally is at $104 m estimated. The biggest September weekend of all time was Sep. 27–29, 2002, at $91,795,628, when Sweet Home Alabama opened!
So even though the opening weekend record won't be broken this weekend, the biggest September weekend total record will! All of the other top 12 weekend total records for Jan-Dec aside from September are all from the past four years, so this is a record 9 years old, no other month even comes close!!!
Top 12 total could be at $107 m! So not only will this become the biggest September weekend ever in all likeliness, it will break the previous record by 17%!!
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 12:23 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
^ Wow goes to show how big this weekend is. Very nice analysis as always O
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 12:38 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
BOM numbers are also up now. First post updated with numbers.... http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 1:07 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
So it looks like outside of TLK's second weekend hold and the solid opening of DT everything else was pretty MEH ! MB should have great legs considering it got an A Cinemascore, but the same can't be said for either Abduction or Killer Elite. I'm actually glad Abduction didn't breakout too. It looked terrible from the begining and reviews only made it seem worse. All that media hype about Lautner being the next action star is the only reason I went high on it in the first place, but it's obvious outside of those Twilight loving tweens that nobody wants to see this dude in an action movie. He should just stick to the Twilight series and get those nice round paychecks like everyone else.
Last edited by Dil on Sat Sep 24, 2011 1:52 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 1:07 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
Moneyball got an A, not an A+. Dolphin Tale got the A+.
Drive dropped 53.1%. Could have been worse. I'm hoping it can drop below 50% for the weekend. That would be incredible.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 1:10 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
It is not looking as good for Machine Gun Preacher. It looks like IDKHSDI is going to loos again this weekend to SD(2011)....that would be really poor for it.
Moneyball is still looking to win this weekend among openers. DT though looks like it will make more than MB which would be amazing. Depending on next weekend drop it looks like TLK will be very close to MB in the end and will end up in Top 3 movies of the month....simply amazing.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 1:19 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48626 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
The Lion King's performance has been incredibly impressive and is a testament to just how beloved the film is. It dwarfs what The Little Mermaid reissue pulled in in 1997, and actually harkens back to when the original Star Wars trilogy was re-released that same year.
I feel like calling Moneyball's opening "slightly disappointing" is...eh. I think it's going to have a healthy Saturday jump and will come in over $20M, which is what I expected personally. And with the apparently glowing word-of-mouth and reviews, I can't see it not holding well.
Dolphin Tale is definitely a big winner as well. Abduction and Killer Elite did OK. I actually expected Drive to hold worse.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:14 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
Recent weekends specifically make me feel like people are increasingly paying closer attention to both reviews and originality - something I've not felt was so entirely obvious before.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:06 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
Libs wrote: I actually expected Drive to hold worse. I agree. With so much competition and bad WOM from general audiences I was expecting it to be hit harder. Glad I was wrong though. I personally think a 30 Million gross for the film is great. FilmDistrict did a nice job with this one.
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:30 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Friday Numbers - Studio Estimates
Proud Ryu wrote: Recent weekends specifically make me feel like people are increasingly paying closer attention to both reviews and originality - something I've not felt was so entirely obvious before. +1
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Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:20 pm |
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