I have a lot of confidence in this one. The trailer always gets a great reaction, for one, especially the last scene. Also, the initial tough concept (a cancer comedy?!) will end up being a plus, in my opinion. It's an attention grabber. I'm not sure how to phrase this, but I almost feel as if this is...Terms of Endearment for the Apatow crowd. Its promised blend of humor and sadness will draw people in. Gordon-Levitt has never been hotter, and Rogen has solid appeal. And if this-- http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/08/ ... _score.php --is any indication, I expect positive reviews and maybe even Golden Globes/Oscar buzz. Unless Summit completely botches the TV spot campaign, I have high hopes for this one. I don't believe it's nearly as hard a sell as many have suggested. It's a hit.

Who's with me?

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Members:

Bluebomb

What the hell...I am in.

Wise decision, Bluebomb.

This looks great, and while I think $80M might be a stretch, I think this will do well.

Out.

The movie is great, I've seen it.

That said, I still think the subject matter is far too depressing for that many people to see. $50M tops.

This movie looks great, I would definitely see it if Summit releases it here.

Still I don't see a $80m potential, it could do very well and might run very well if it gets Awards notice.

$80m is doable though I don't see it right now. OUT

While I was initially worried about its subject matter, I think starpower will get people through the door and it will just continue to spread with good WOM from there.

Reviews seem to be good so far. I think it could go over 100m.

I want to see 50/50 because I'm a big fan of the leads and The Wackness. This club has good intentions... But ultimately it's foolish. Here's why:

Subject matter. Sorry guys, but I just don't think mass audiences are sophisticated enough for dark comedies about cancer. Sure, Bad Teacher and Horrible Bosses opened to 30 million, but these had easily communicated and relatable premises, and much better titles than the ambiguous 50/50 (I think they should've confidently stuck with I'm With Cancer myself.) Seth Rogen can be a draw, but I think Funny People demonstrates his demographic's unwillingness to show up to comedies that aren't fluff.

Distributor's track record I don't mean to hate on Summit Entertainment, but if this makes 80 million that'll mean it's their second-highest non-Twilight title after Red. Knowing almost hit 80 million, but in addition to decent legs it also opened to 24 million, a number I really don't see 50/50 hitting.

Comedy competition. This may very well have good WOM, but in it's second weekend the Judd Apatow-produced comedy Wanderlust opens. In it's third weekend it'll face the Jack Black/Steve Martin/Owen Wilson bird-watching comedy The Big Year. The latter is directed by David Frankel whose coming off a 100+ million hot streak of The Devil Wears Prada and Marley & Me. I could see both of these comedies opening over 20 million, and close to 30 million if they have really good trailers. To me that means that a 5.0 multiplier is the absolute ceiling for 50/50, with under 4 being much more likely. So that means 50/50 needs to open to at least 16 million, and more likely 20-25 million to reach 80 million. And while I could see it opening to 16 million, much higher will be hard with the comedy What's Your Number? opening the same weekend and cannibalizing their respective audiences. Because with JGL as the lead, 50/50 will need women to show up as well as guys to open above 20 million.

Like I said, I'm excited to see this movie. After Contagion it's my most anticipated of September. But anyone who has had to deal with cancer afflicting a loved one knows that it is a really painful, difficult process. So while I will optimistically, and maybe even naively, predict this will be a break-out hit with 16/56, I am 100% OUT.

MovieDude, you mentioned Wanderlust but I've heard rumblings that film might be pushed back to January.

MovieDude, you mentioned Wanderlust but I've heard rumblings that film might be pushed back to January.

No kidding? Yeah I suppose I would have expected a trailer by now (same for The Big Year for that matter) and if I were Universal I wouldn't want to be squeezed in between multiple comedies either. January is missing a solid comedy... But the last time Universal moved a comedy from early October to next Spring, it was the also-promising Your Highness.

Either way, I still think my prediction is generous and this club is extremely unlikely.

I think a 50m club would be daring and optimistic, this just seems silly. The film looks promising for quality, but not box office imo.

I'm guessing that will happen since there hasn't been a trailer. Too bad as I really want to see it.

The promotion during the VMA's was actually really good and it did get alot of positive hits, but I'm still OUT.

Somehow this remains unlikely.

This isn't just unlikely, but plain silly. This will go the way of the Fright Night $75 million club, just off by a bit less.

Blow me, Hans Landa.

This probably won't even do 80 Million worldwide .

You never know. You did that many dudes in Minnesota alone in 2002.

YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Wow, you're really funny .

I would join the "I want it to make 80 mil Club".

Someone hasn't said it, so I will: the club has less than a 50/50 chance.

My theater has this on two screens this weekend, what a waste. It's not going to need it at all.

No kidding. It probably won't even fill up 1 screen. None of this weekend's openers need 2 screens. My theater was smart and didn't put any of them on more than 1.