Well, we all know how much the first 3 did...

I don't know when the U.S. trailer will be up, but here's the
French trailer
http://video.fr.msn.com/watch/video/pir ... e/jm5tvrzf
and the
German trailer
http://www.disney.de/pirates-of-the-caribbean/

*same trailer, different languages

$349m Pirates 1
$643m Pirates 2
$652m Pirates 3

?????? Pirates 4

It should increase over Pirates 3. Shrek 4 is going to finish with $515 million with the help of 3D to become the biggest in the series, so why not the same for Pirates 4?

I agree, although I could see this making 550 OS.

While it could gross $500/550, using the decrease in admissions argument doesn't work because of Shrek 4.

Shrek 3 was hated more than Pirates 3, and decreased from Shrek 2. Yet the 4th film saw an increase, and became the highest grossing in the series.

You also have to consider that a few markets are much bigger now. I don't believe Pirates 3 was even released in China.

As crap as people perceived Shrek 4 to be, it had the largest gross overseas of the franchise beating both Shrek 2 and Shrek 3.....it's also a $700m+ grosser despite a woeful $240m Domestic.

It's Overseas gross alone borders on $500m.

Now compare that to Pirates 2 + 3 which were both $600m+ grossers overseas (Shrek 2 + 3 failed to get more than $480m)...coupled with the fact that Russia and China have grown massively and better exchange rate conditions, expect a $600m+ gross for Pirates 4 as well. I would go as far as to say $650m for Pirates 4 is highly likely with an outside shot at $700m.

Some other points:

* Pirates 3 IMO is not as panned as Shrek 3. Thus i think Pirates 4 will hold better to the audience than Shrek 4
* Shrek 4 proceeded in most markets Toy Story 3, Pirates 4 opens in a tight May but is easily the biggest name of that month.
* Pirates franchise plays to a broader audience than Shrek and as evidence in the previous gross, is pretty much a hit worldwide in most markets.

I'm predicting:

Domestic = $300m
Overseas = $650m
Worldwide = $950m

IMO, this is the only movie that can take down HP7-2 overseas next year, nothing else has the power to comes close.

700M+ for shoo. capt jack sparrow is global phenomena

Thank you Keyser

I think it will cross 1B mark this time. It is in 3D and will have a new story, so expect a good OW and strong legs. Being in 3D helped a lot of movies OS grosses last year and though I agree that this would be down in admissions I don't see it missing 700m OS total.

660m+ Overseas, Pirates 4 direct competition will be kung fu panda 2, but most dreamworks films released in the summer are delayed overseas, P4 will be huge !!!

I currently have $680m.

I've got a feeling now this will hit $700m overseas. Its easily the first biggest release of the year overseas and will surely capitalise on this. Trailers have been good.

POTC4 opens here in Australia today, can't believe it's opening day already.

Opening day matinees are quite average...though this is probably the type of movie that plays better at night and of course through the weekend.

Most of the night sessions tonight are around 50% and it's just around 2pm Thursday now. It'll likely grow dramatically through the night.

Pirates 3 has the franchise opening crown at AU$12,074,242 (which was #6 All-Time Opening back when it opened), followed by DMC's AU$11,215,765 and the original's AU$5,172,435.

DMC's lead the overall total here with 38,051,837 followed by AWE's 32,988,977 and the original's AU25,448,052.

There's no way this is doing less than $27m i think with $30m+ a likely total.

I'm thinking an opening around $11-12m is in play; though i don't think the buzz is really there to make a run for the Top 3 which it'll need at least $14.5m for now.

Hong Kong

Opening day: 16,783 -- Wednesday night previews (no morning or afternoon shows)

It had a solid opening day yesterday. That number puts it around $150,000-$200,000 so far.

Today, it is looking like it will pass 40k admissions with the possibility of breaking 50k. For the weekend, we could be looking anywhere from 2.3-2.8m for the 4 day and 2.5-3m for the 4.25 day. Not quite enough to put it over the top but in the top 15 at least (maybe top 5 if it posts strong weekend increase).

Night sessions have been dissapointing IMO, there's no sellouts and it's not filling each session to 90%. It's about 75-80% at this stage through the night.

This is not on the same level as Fast 5 in terms of sales per session, needs a very wide release.

The rumor has it that Pirates had the best opening Wednesday in Russia. No precise numbers yet.

Judging by pre-sales Germany is headed towards the first 1m admissions opening in 2011. My forecast is 1.25m which would be approx. on the same level as POTC1 but a third below 2 & 3...

So far Pirates 4 has the biggest opening day ever in Russia and really great numbers out of France. That's not surprising, following the film's Cannes Film Festival premiere this past Saturday and star Johnny Depp lives in that country. Pirates 4 took in €2.1M/$3.1M which is 17% of Pirates 3 and 10% ahead of Alice In Wonderland.

posting.php?mode=reply&f=12&t=60436

your link is messed up. it just grossed 17% of AWE's OD and you still call it really great. cine-director is predicting 1.7M admissions 1st week which way below 2.7M admissions by AWE.

Darling Nikki has changed her post anyway:

'Pirates Of Caribbean 4' Opens Big Abroad: $18.5M From First 10 Countries Wednesday

The 2011 Summer Movie Season began its blockbuster rollout overseas this time around. Fast Five and Thor both opened first abroad and established its box office bonafides before coming to North America. And now it's Disney's turn: by the time Pirates Of The Caribbean 4: On Stranger Tides wopens in 4,155 North American theaters on Friday, it will already had debuts in 70 countries. Right now, the internationally set movie is scoring huge in the first 10 countries it opened Wednesday, posting $18.5M. This tops the $12.3M logged by Pirates 3 from 16 territories by 50%. True, a big question mark has been whether this franchise is played out, especially after the last installment was excoriated by reviewers and fans, but then sequels always perform better internationally than in the U.S. and Canada.

So far Pirates 4 has the biggest opening day ever in Russia with an industry record breaker there of RBL130M/$5M beating the previous high set by Twilight (RBL122M). This is 125% ahead of Alice In Wonderland and 78% ahead of Pirates 3. France took in €2.1M/$3.1M which is 17% of Pirates 3 and 10% ahead of Alice In Wonderland. That's not surprising since the film premiered at the Cannes Film Festival last Saturday and star Johnny Depp lives in that country. There also were very strong starts in the UK, Italy, and Sweden. UK registered £2.0M/$3.2M, just 1% behind Pirates 3.

http://www.deadline.com/2011/05/pirates ... ge-abroad/

Are there any official figures from Australia yet?

Well, Darling Nikki was talking box office, you're comparing admissions...

Anyway PIRATES 4 delivered the biggest opening day of the year in France IN ADMISSIONS (321,000) vs. local blockbuster RIEN A DECLARER (8.1m admissions total and 301,000 opening day).
The 1.7m admission forecast by cine-director looks fine to me...

Opening days:
218,186 PIRATES 1
693,303 PIRATES 2 (summer vacation)
426,256 PIRATES 3
321,000 PIRATES 4

Then something's wrong with €2.1M/$3.1M OD Number cause average ticket prise for the major 3d release should be at least around 12 USD in France.

Okay, I'm gonna pretend I'm the male German version of Darling Nikki (it's 11pm opening day and this is the umpteenth update) and sources tell me that PIRATES is heading towards 1.2m-1.4m admissions opening weekend here in Germany...

Great numbers all around for Pirates 4. Beating Pirates 3 by 50% so far in 6 less countries is also fantastic news.

There will be big gains in countries like Russia and China this time.