The film will have the market all by itself, and its awareness level with be on par with Sith's, given not only the huge popularity of the franchise itself, but in addition, the fact that the next installment in the book series comes out this summer, enabling Harry Potter to be in the headlines along with the summer releases. If you consider the staggering number of people who will buy the book, and the high ratio of readers per book (due to library lending, one book read by the entire household, etc.), it's possible that the book will have as great an audience among kids as Sith will in theatres.

So the hype machine will be in overdrive by November.

In addition, I expect another 4,000+ theatre count, because of a lack of major films in theatres (Only Chicken Little...). If you look at the HP films, irrespective of their totals, their opening weekends are staggering. They can pull people in, and I think this one will pull in enough people to push it past $100m.

What do you think?

Well it's possible. Zathura is second weekend, and from week four on it'll be dead. However, if Azkaban could only match the other films openings in June, I'm not sure if this can beat 100 million. I think that was hurt by Shrek 2, no doubt about it, but the summer does allow for bigger kid film openings and I do think this has lost some audience. The thid one being as dark as it was might have scared off a number of younglings too. It depends how the marketing goes, I think it has the best chance of any movie this year, but for now I'd say it's a coinflip, it could, or it could do 85 million.

Nope. But, I anxiously anticipate the $100+ million predictions I'm going to see, since people never learn. :razz:

i can see this reach 103 million max. So i'm not currently in any club for this.

but this ain't reaching 250 mil.

Hmm ... I doubt it.

Not a chance , no potter film has, no potter film will. If this film wants to proove its self than its going to have to proove it in quality. I expect an opening in the 95m-98m range.

:laugh:

Nope. It might open higher than the other 3, but it's just that it's frontloading even more. I don't think it will make more than $240 million in the winter.

I can't see it. It shouldn't be much more frontloaded then HP3 with Thanksgiving and late December, and I doubt it will earn more then HP3 either. I just can't see it.

Maybe Batman Begins can be that film even with a Wednesday opening. :razz:

i think so too it be nice if they release it on a Friday and not a Wednesday.
it's total (domestic) will still be less then the first movie though.
somewhere around $280-$300 mill.

ooh no! i really dont think thats going to happend!
the highest i think its $90M

Hey zingy, how's that xXx part tre prediction coming along? :wink:

j/k

I don't think it'll open to 100 million. I don't know much about these things, but the hysteria around the franchise is slowly fading. Each film makes less than its predessesor, and I see this being no different. If anything, like Sith, it'll have to wait for the seventh movie to see an upturn. The finale with have a cultural memory associated with it (similar to Sith) that the in between installments don't.

Whatever the former one by Cuaron opened to, chop off another 15 million this time around.

I think it'll be the most action-oriented HP film yet, and they'll probably use a lot of the action scenes from the Triwizard Tournament in the TV spots, which I think should help it's opening.

$88/$251 is my prediction for now.

I just checked adjusted Opening Weekends for the films:

HP1 $90,294,621 --> $102,099,925
HP2 $88,357,488 --> $97,330,107
HP3 $93,687,367 --> $95,935,864


The series has remarkable stamina with regards to maintaing huge opening weekends. All of them are within $5m or so to $100m.

I remember when many here said HP3 was going to make 100mill 3 day and pass 300mill total because it was the best book,well it didnt happen and it wont happen,this series is in decline,every HP film has done less then the previouse one and this will not be the exception.

I say 85mill opening,220mill total.

Well the question this thread poses is if it can open over $100 million not what its total will be. I think it can due to lack of competition and with a higher theater count. Like Ivan K points out every previous HP film has opened near $100 million if you take inflation adjustment into account I don't expect any different this time. Prisoner of Azkaban recieved better reviews then the previous two films you can check Rotten Tomatoes to see them and coupled with the 6th book coming out this summer I wouldn't doubt a $100 million opening.

Why is everyone saying it has no chance whatsoever at opening to $100 million, but will probably do same as the others. $100 million isn't that far off, only 7 or so million, and with all the things Box mentioned, I don't see how we can rule it out. We're talking about opening weekend, not overall gross. The opening weekends have all been around the same.

I would love to see HP4 top $100m opening weekend.