it will hurt everybody's box office expectations, it won´t probably beat Toy Story 3 worldwide

Well this is shocking, but I'm really digging the idea. It suprises me that a studio will put quality first before quantity especially with all the 3D craze today, but now I deffentially have major respect for Warner Bros. However it has now lost the biggest advantage it had over New Moon from last year and now I doubt it will break the OD record, but it will still have a huge opening.

Yeah, this is definately unexpected. Was looking forward to this being the even movie in 3D to look out for. Looks like the mantle is now passed to Narnia and Tron solely.

Yeah, will put a dent in its grosses. What was the issue? they didn't have enough time or were they not impressed with the conversion>?

I wonder how much money they pooled into this? And have now lost.

It'll be interesting if they then scrap HP7-II 3D as well or try to get that one up and running. I think its unlikely...i mean HP7-II is only 7 months away and if they can't finish HP7-I in 3D, there's obviously going to be no room for HP7-II.

What's going on WB?

While i still see $1billion, i've now reduced its chances of beating ROTK to about 50-50.

I think it can still beat TS3, $340m + $730m = $1.07bn

You have a point, better quality then a rush job with something that doesn't really add to the experience at all.

Well if they had been working on converting HP 8 at the same time they should get it done in time.

an increase of 100m (without 3D) from the previous film overseas is pretty hard to reach, but we all know expectations are high on it for being the end of the series however now it turns into a challenge to become the number 1 movie of the year WW

This movie has been in development for quite some time, i somehow feel dissapointed that they were not able to get this out on 3D. Miss Opportunity.

Wow! This is a surprise!

The Top 3 for the year looks certain, the only question now is which placings will they all get.

Any chance they might continue with the conversion and release the movie for 3D in the spring?

Narnia and Tron both look like they could be great in 3D.

TS3 will win the year for shoo.

This was surprising but I surely do respect WB for this now, this would have otherwise been another COTT.

It is now looking difficult for this to make 1B....this is not the last part anyways so I don't it increasing hugely from the 6th part

At least it doesn't have big competition. It's the clear blockbuster of the holiday season.

UNITED KINGDOM - Preview

More than a year has passed since the last Potter flick and we've seen two big changes at the top. Avatar crushed HP6 last year; almost doubling its gross, and this year's Toy Story 3 did much the same. The Boy Wizard used to hold the #2 spot on the All-Time charts here in the UK behind Titanic, but has now drifted back to #5. 6 movies have now crossed the magic $100m mark here, and 7 have crossed the 60m pounds mark, very difficult to crack. HP now holds spot #5 (HP1 - £66,096,060), #10 (£54,780,731), #15 (HP6 - £50,713,404), #16 (HP5 - £49,136,969), #18 (HP4 - £48,328,854) and #21 (HP3 - £45,615,949). The only movies to hold the #1 spot in their respective years is only 3 however; HP1, HP4, HP5. Ever since the HP3 fiasco, the franchise has now made consecutive improvements from HP4 to HP6, and hae fallen into a comfortable range around the 50m pounds mark.

The HP franchise is known for its massive openings. Regardless of days, 4 out of the 6 HP flicks has a stake in the Top 10 largest openings US$; HP4 and HP1 the odds one out. HP3's 7-Day holiday boosted opening is still tops (TS3 wasn't able to beat it this year). Last year's HP6 had 5-Days, and posted a $33m opening; only the 5th movie to do so. This year, HP7-I reverts back to the regular 3-Day opening (not sure if there will be a level of previews). The largest opening for the regular 3-Day (without previews) is still The Simpsons Movie at $27.6m. I see this being achievably considering the weakness in the US$ lately. The record for the largest 3-Day with previews is held by Shrek 3 at a gargantuan $33.5m of which $12.7m are previews. A challenge yes, but not impossible. I see the opening for HP7-I to be around US$32m-35m

There's really only 3 major smashes this year, Toy Story 3, Alice in Wonderland and Inception. The rest have been mediocre at best. HP7-I should have no problems beating Alice; though it's doubtful IMO that it can take down Toy Story 3. Still, the absence of competition this holiday season will give it some very nice holds. I see 50m pounds being a lock, with a total around 60m pounds likely and 65m being the breakout target.

Avatar - £8,509,050 (US$13.8m) // £93,442,625 (US$152m) = 11x
Toy Story 3 - £21,187,264 (US$32.7m) 7-Day // £73.3m (US$118m) = 3.46x*Still Grossing
Mamma Mia - £5,204,651 (US$10.3m) // £69,166,087 (US$132m) = 13.29x
Titanic - £4,805,270 (US$8m) // £69,025,646 (US$113) = 14.37x
Harry Potter 1: PS - £16,335,627 (US$23m) // £66,096,060 (US$91.5m) = 4.04x
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - £11,058,045 (US$15.9m) // £63,051,172 (US$89.5m) = 5.7x
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - £15,021,761 (US$20.9m) // £61,062,348 (US$109m) = 4.06x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - £13,063,560 (US$26.5m) // £57,654,384 (US$93m) = 4.41x
James Bond: Casino Royale - £13,370,969 (US$25.3m) // £55,495,547 ($109m) = 4.15x
Harry Potter 2: COS - £18,871,829 (US$29.8m) // £54,780,731 (US$85.7m) = 2.9x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - £13,740,784 (US$25.4m) // £51,998,090 (US$98m) = 3.78x
James Bond: Quantum of Solace - £15,384,217 (US$25.3m) // £51,070,677 (US$81m) = 3.3x
Star Wars 1: PM - £9,512,295 (US$14.9m) // £51,063,811 (US$83m) = 5.37x
Harry Potter 6: HBP - £19,784,924 (US$32.3m) 5-Day // £50,713,404 (US$85m) = 2.56x
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - £16,493,305 ($33.5m) // £49,136,969 (US$101.4m) x2.97x
The Dark Knight - £11,191,824 (US$22.2m) // £48,824,392 (US$89) = 4.36x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - £14,933,901 (US$25.6m) // £48,769,962 (US$86m) = 3.26x
Shrek 2 - £16,220,752 (US$29.6m) // £48,104,138 (US$88.1m) = 3x
Harry Potter 3: POA - £23,882,688 (US$43.7m) // £46,077,489 (US$84.5m) = 1.93x
Chronicles of Narnia: TLTW&TW - £8,884,111 ($15.6m) // £43,903,853 (US$77m) = 4.94x
Alice In Wonderland - £10,555,220 (US$16m) // £42,169,542 (US$66m) = 4x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At Worlds End -£13,412,294 (US$26.6m) // £40,646,683 (US$83m) = 3x

Opening = US$32-35m // 20m-22.5m pounds
Total = US$95m-$105m // 60m-65m pounds

GERMANY Preview:

2010 would have to be the weakest year in the past decade with no movie able to crack the 4m admissions mark by November. This is even weaker than 2008, which at least posted a movie above 4m and 5 movies above 3m by this time in the year. Only 2 movies has managed to crack 3m, Eclipse and Inception. Terrible. More capital to HP7-I then.

The HP has been on a declining streak here; very much like Japan. Last year's HP6 was the lowest in the franchise; overshadowed by Ice Age 3 and finished 3rd in the year, also behind Avatar. This is the equal lowest showing on the yearly charts for the franchise; equal with HP3 which also finsihed 3rd back in 2004. All other years, Harry Potter has performed magnificently, finishing #1 in 3 years (HP1, HP5, HP7) and a close #2 to LOTR: TTT in 2002. Will its fortunes turn around?

Potter flicks have always shown great pace out of the gates, though stamina has been not as impressive comparatively. With the last 2 pics playing in Summer may have something to do with it; much more competition and distraction for audiences. Potter Winter releases have been standouts, in fact, 3 of the top openings in history belongs to Potter...HP1, HP2 and HP4. While admissions are of course a shadow of what they used to be, expect a similar performance for HP7-I, especially when its the start of the end now. This year's leargest opening was Eclipse at just above 1m admissions over the regular frame, I think Potter 7-I can almost double this. I'm expecting at least 2m admissions (over the 5-Days, it opens on Wednesday November 17tg) start which should be the largest start since Pirates 3 in 2007. HP6's opening is a good barometer.

Overall totals should not be dented by competition. The only notable releases in December are Megamind on December 2nd, Narnia 3 on December 16th and Fockers/Yogi Bear on December 23rd. Megamind/Yogi Bear i don't see beating 2m admissions (animation overload); especially when Despicable can't get much more than 2m. Same goes for Narnia 3 which should hover around 2m (Caspian gross less than 1/3 of the original at just over 1.3 adms.). Fockers is the only one anywhere capable of crossing 3m. Though i still have doubts about that one as well considering the 2nd, can't get much more than 3.1m (saying that however, it didn't open until Feb 2005). It would be madness to suggest Potter can get back to the levels of HP1/2....but everything else can be surpassed. HP3/6's totals should be surpassed with a gross around HP5 likely (7m mark) and a outperformance range at HP4's 8m. At the momment, i'm pegging this in-between ar around 7.3-7.5m admissions.

Harry Potter 7-I: DH - 2.1m adms. 5-Day // 7.5m adms. - 3.6x

Harry Potter 1: PS - 2.590.464 adms. (US$14.8m) // 12.556.007 adms. (US$68m) - 4.84x
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - 1.813.898 adms. (US$12m) // 11.831.850 adms. (US$70.8m) - 6.5x
Avatar - 893.169 adms. (US$13.3m) // 11.181.666 adms. (US$156) = 12.52x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - 2.021.239 adms. (US$15.2m) // 10.691.738 adms. (US$76m) - 5.3x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - 2.050.755 adms. (US$17.75m) // 10.430.320 adms. (US$90m) - 5.1x
Harry Potter 2: COS - 2.489.952 adms. (US$16.28m) // 9.693.596 adms. (US$60m) = 3.9x
Jurassic Park 1 - 1.742.937 adms. (US$10.5m) // 9.367.216 adms. (US$56.3m) = 5.38x
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - 2.395.588 adms. (US$17.15m) // 8.732.937 adms. (US$63m) = 3.67x
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - 1.457.891 adms. (US$16.2m) // 8.705.891 adms. (US$82.5m) = 5.97x
Finding Nemo - 2.032.136 adms. (US$13.3m) // 8.678.707 adms. (US$56.5m) = 4.27x
Star Wars 1: PM - 1.786.960 adms. (US$12.4m) // 8.044.788 adms. (US$55m) = 4.5x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - 2.685.158 adms. (US$21.7m) // 7.915.895 adms. (US$63m) = 2.95x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - 1.924.778 adms. (US$18m) // 7.144.107 adms. (US$61m) = 3.7x
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - 1.682.806 adms. (US$15.5m) 5-Day // 7.076.615 adms. (US$65.9m) = 4.2x
Madagascar - 1.226.475 adms. (US$8.6m) // 6.704.558 adms. (US$43m) = 5.48x
Harry Potter 3: POA - 1.987.285 adms. (US$15.27m) // 6.545.279 adms. (US$48.7m) - 3.3x
Harry Potter 6: HBP - 1.844.184 adms. (US$23.85m) // 6.128.515 adms. (US$65m) = 3.32x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: AWE - 1,860,775 adms. (US$16.6m) // 6.079.497 adms. (US$59.4m) = 3.2x
Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa - 1.475.967 adms. (US$11.2m) // 6.042.282 adms. (US$46m) = 4.1x
Pirates Of The Caribbean: TCOTBP - 1.193.025 adms. (US$11.6m) // 5.978.657 adms. (US$40.6m) = 5x
Star Wars 2: AOTC - 1.846.885 adms. (US$11.8m) // 5.699.678 adms. (US$35.2m) = 3.08x
Star Wars 3: ROTS - 1.964.960 adms. (US$17.8m) // 5.620.503 adms. (US$46.8m) = 2.86x

Exhange rate is no longer a problem at all, in fact overall it's better than it was for HBP. Euro is about the same now but others like yen and AUD are way higher.

Yes, in Australia the Aussie dollar has now surpassed parity with the US. i.e. 1 AUD is now above the USD. This bodes well for any movies releasing now because a gross of like AU$40m which HP7-I is capable of will generate above US$40m. Which is huge

Both Toy Story 3 and Avatar had huge help from 3D in the UK (and probably everywhere)

You simply have no choice to choose between 2/3D if the movie is in 3D. Adjust for inflation as well and HP is not far off/may even beat them.

60m pounds i say is almost a lock in the UK,

Without 3D, I'm not so sure. I'm thinking 55-56 million.

In Germany, I'm thinking around 7,300,000 admissions.

Well there's not much in it, its bound to do well and get this franchise back to HP4 levels in terms of admissions or local dollars.

And what's this i hear about a possible re-release in 3D?

85% at RT right now