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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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 Weekend Estimates
Title Jan 22 - 24 Jan 15 - 17 % Chg. Theaters Weeks AVG Cumulative Distributor 1 Avatar $ 36,000,000 $ 42,785,612 -15.9 3,141 6 $ 11,461 $ 552,797,000 Fox 2 Legion 18,200,000 2,476 1 7,351 18,200,000 Sony 3 The Book of Eli 17,000,000 32,789,494 -48.2 3,111 2 5,464 62,003,000 Warner Bros. 4 The Tooth Fairy 14,500,000 3,344 1 4,336 14,500,000 Fox 5 The Lovely Bones 8,800,000 17,005,133 -48.3 2,571 5 3,423 31,624,000 Paramount 6 Sherlock Holmes 7,115,000 9,889,154 -28.1 2,670 5 2,665 191,564,000 Warner Bros. 7 Extraordinary Measures 7,000,000 2,973 1 2,355 7,000,000 CBS 8 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 6,500,000 11,619,949 -44.1 2,549 5 2,550 204,237,000 Fox 9 It's Complicated 6,190,000 8,112,555 -23.7 2,301 5 2,690 98,650,000 Universal 10 The Spy Next Door 4,750,000 9,726,056 -51.2 2,924 2 1,624 1,871,000 Lionsgate Top 5 $ 94,500,000 $ 114,089,342 -17.2 Top 10 126,055,000 148,859,116 -15.3 Top 10 vs. 2009 126,055,000 118,605,040 6.3 Top 10 vs. 2008 126,055,000 109,183,558 15.5 Below the Top 10: The Blind Side 4,515,000 5,557,274 -18.8 1,932 10 2,337 234,027,000 Warner Bros. Up in the Air 4,330,000 5,445,379 -20.5 1,707 8 2,537 69,674,000 Paramount Leap Year 3,015,000 5,928,510 -49.1 1,939 3 1,555 22,981,000 Universal Daybreakers 1,600,000 5,185,554 -69.1 1,523 3 1,051 28,150,000 Lionsgate Crazy Heart 1,425,000 647,473 120.1 93 6 15,323 3,937,000 Fox Searchlight The Princess and the Frog 1,200,000 2,777,707 -56.8 1,082 9 1,109 99,155,000 Buena Vista Youth in Revolt 883,000 3,004,123 -70.6 743 3 1,188 14,333,000 Weinstein Co. A Single Man 766,000 843,600 -9.2 216 7 3,546 4,515,000 Weinstein Co. The Young Victoria 753,000 950,411 -20.8 307 6 2,453 7,385,000 Apparition
From BOG
Last edited by O on Sun Jan 24, 2010 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 11:57 am |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Bring on next week. Come on Edge of Darkness.
Also why doesn't the Blind Side just die already?
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:00 pm |
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Mandeep
The Dark Knight
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2009 11:22 pm Posts: 740
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
I think people see it to see Bollock's back side....
lol
_________________ ACH! Unsere Unterseeboot sind stiehlen mit eine dog und baby und Art Garfunkel!
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:03 pm |
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Bryan_smith
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:13 pm Posts: 2120
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
wow
Avatar has a very good chance at breaking 30 million next weekend, it's 7th weekend in release.
Blind Side will crack 250 million now thanks to Sandra's Globe and SAG win, and what is looking like an eventual Oscar win now too.
Sherlock ended up being a 200 million film after all. Good for it.
Openers are just meh. They will be next week and the weeks ahead as well. Thank goodness for Avatar. I still have it in the back of my mind that it's going to atart dropping harder sometime soon because how long can it keep defying gravity like this? But apparently it's going to coast past 700 million and beyond. Just wow.
_________________ spaces.msn.com/members/metropolis19
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:05 pm |
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Bryan_smith
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:13 pm Posts: 2120
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
P.S.
Avatar is dropping 15% after a holiday weekend! If last Sunday weren't inflated, it would have dropped less then 10% this weekend. DAMN!
_________________ spaces.msn.com/members/metropolis19
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:06 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Avatar now needs a 7.87 multiplier for the rest of its run to get to $800 m. Considering it has 3D to itself for five more weeks, and that it had a 15.9% drop this weekend (which would have been even smaller if not for the inflated Sunday last week), it definitely has a chance.
Eli looks like its a $100 m film now. It needs a 3.23 multiplier for the rest of its run to get there, which will likely happen.
Congrats to Alvin on passing $200 m!
Blind Side's per theater average went up this weekend! It will be at $240 m even before Oscar nods are announced. $260 m certainly looks possible!
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:10 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm Posts: 6153 Location: New York
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Very nice for Avatar, TBS, and Crazy Heart.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:10 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Bryan_smith wrote: P.S.
Avatar is dropping 15% after a holiday weekend! If last Sunday weren't inflated, it would have dropped less then 10% this weekend. DAMN! What a useless thing to say since it's Sunday was inflated.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:15 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Bryan_smith wrote: wow
Avatar has a very good chance at breaking 30 million next weekend, it's 7th weekend in release.
Blind Side will crack 250 million now thanks to Sandra's Globe and SAG win, and what is looking like an eventual Oscar win now too.
Sherlock ended up being a 200 million film after all. Good for it.
Openers are just meh. They will be next week and the weeks ahead as well. Thank goodness for Avatar. I still have it in the back of my mind that it's going to atart dropping harder sometime soon because how long can it keep defying gravity like this? But apparently it's going to coast past 700 million and beyond. Just wow. Crystal ball. If anything the openings have been decent but they completely implode as holdovers. Look at YIR it's already below a million and dropped 70% from last weekend. Terrible.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:17 pm |
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Bryan_smith
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:13 pm Posts: 2120
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
BK wrote: Bryan_smith wrote: P.S.
Avatar is dropping 15% after a holiday weekend! If last Sunday weren't inflated, it would have dropped less then 10% this weekend. DAMN! What a useless thing to say since it's Sunday was inflated. you just repeated what I said, that it's Sunday was inflated... tat was the entire point I was making, meaning it would have held even better this weekend had it not been a holiday last weekend. It's not useless, it's actully a valid and correct observation. Also, stop being such a jerk.
_________________ spaces.msn.com/members/metropolis19
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:18 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6788
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
O wrote: Avatar now needs a 7.87 multiplier for the rest of its run to get to $800 m. Considering it has 3D to itself for five more weeks, and that it had a 15.9% drop this weekend (which would have been even smaller if not for the inflated Sunday last week), it definitely has a chance.
Eli looks like its a $100 m film now. It needs a 3.23 multiplier for the rest of its run to get there, which will likely happen.
Congrats to Alvin on passing $200 m!
Blind Side's per theater average went up this weekend! It will be at $240 m even before Oscar nods are announced. $260 m certainly looks possible! i think there are too many 3d films in march for avatar to hit 300m. it probably needs another re-expansion in april and have another 5-6 weeks of 3d/imax run for it to make 800m. anyway it will make close to 750m domestic and 2.5b ww.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:22 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 19747
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
The Princess and the Frog is really kind of a failure, isn't it?
And that estimate for Tooth Fairy seems overly optimistic. The Rock's next two films should do better as he's in better company as far as costars go:
The Other Guys: Two mismatched New York City detectives seize an opportunity to step up like the city's top cops whom they idolize -- only things don't quite go as planned.
Costars: Mark Wahlberg, Samuel L. Jackson, Will Ferrell, Michael Keaton, and Ray Stevenson.
Faster: An ex-con is out to avenge his brother's death after they were double-crossed during a heist years ago.
Costars: Salma Hayek, Billy Bob Thornton, Moon Bloodgood, Maggie Grace
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:25 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Bryan_smith wrote: BK wrote: Bryan_smith wrote: P.S.
Avatar is dropping 15% after a holiday weekend! If last Sunday weren't inflated, it would have dropped less then 10% this weekend. DAMN! What a useless thing to say since it's Sunday was inflated. you just repeated what I said, that it's Sunday was inflated... tat was the entire point I was making, meaning it would have held even better this weekend had it not been a holiday last weekend. It's not useless, it's actully a valid and correct observation. Also, stop being such a jerk. Oh, I read it wrongly. Sorry.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:27 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Hey what happened to Legion? I thought that this week it will claim the Number 2 spot from Eli.
It seems that the early numbers haven't yet included the estimates for Legion. I am hoping it will cross 18M otherwise it is going to be a total bummer
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:28 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
The Princess and the Frog really is disappointing. It was a Disney film opening over the holidays. It was the big movie for its weekend, opened the fourth weekend of The Blind Side (plenty of room for both of them), all the family films had flopped or disappointed before it (Christmas Carol, Old Dogs, Planet 51, Mr Fox, it had great reviews, etc.
Alvin was huge, but there was plenty of room for Princess and the Frog to do well as it had a 2 week buffer.
Given all of those factors in its favor, it's going to end up with a little over a multiplier of 4. Given the legs that family films are supposed to show over the holidays its quite disappointing...
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:32 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm Posts: 6153 Location: New York
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Heh, Avatar's estimated to have the exact same post-MLK drop as Titanic. Pretty impressive.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:35 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Full estimates are up!
Box office was up 6.3% this year. It's still on a roll!
Nooo! The Blind Side fell out of the top 10! Still headed for $260 m though!
Great for Crazy Heart!
I still think Up in the Air is headed for $100 m. It had a great hold this weekend.
It's Complicated has been holding well week after week. Could get to $125 m!
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 1:12 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm Posts: 12333
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
That's a wonderful number for Crazy Heart. I tried seeing it yesterday at 4:20 but every single showing for the day from 12 to 9:30 was sold out! Now the theater I went to was the only one that had Crazy Heart in St. Louis so I guess I'll have to get my tickets online next time I try and see it.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 1:39 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
January 2010 box office is now at $895.3. With another full weekend to go, and last January at $1,014,386,445, it looks like this will be the biggest January ever, and another $1 billion January.
March and April look like they could beat last year, but February looks iffy right now though its certainly possible. A breakout of every opener on PD weekend would push February over last year I think.
If all four months beat 2009, that would be a huge push of momentum for the year.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 1:46 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am Posts: 4556
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
O wrote: March and April look like they could beat last year, but February looks iffy right now though its certainly possible. A breakout of every opener on PD weekend would push February over last year I think. March will definitely be beaten. February has a 50% chance. Outside of Valentines weekend, Feb. 2009 is going to dominate but then this year has an extra weekend day. April is 50/50 as well. It also has an extra weekend day, which is Elm Street's opening, and has a bunch of potential 25m+ openers (new Tyler Perry movie, Date Night, Kick-Ass, and Wall Street 2) but then April last year had F&F opening huge and a few others as well.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:17 pm |
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_axiom
The Wall
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am Posts: 16163 Location: Croatia
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Bryan_smith wrote: Sherlock ended up being a 200 million film after all. Good for it. Completely deserved.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:38 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
Great for Crazy Heart. The Globe win definitely increased interest. I had a customer come in the other night asking if we had the new movie Jeff Bridges just won an award for.
A very nice hold for Up in the Air. It didn't even need Globe wins and still held up nicely. A lot of the nominated films did (A Single Man, The Young Victoria, An Education, etc...). I think Robert Downey, Jr. winning is responsible for the surprisingly terrific hold for Sherlock Holmes.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:47 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
My condolences go out to Magnus and all the other TDK loonies.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:53 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
How did Sherlock hold so well this weekend? Did Book of Eli hurt it that much last weekend?
Legion did very well all things considered. I guess the marketing overcame whatever it lacked in quality.
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:57 pm |
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Mandeep
The Dark Knight
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2009 11:22 pm Posts: 740
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 Re: Weekend Estimates
_________________ ACH! Unsere Unterseeboot sind stiehlen mit eine dog und baby und Art Garfunkel!
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:58 pm |
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