Ha Ha, so it makes equal to TF2 in its opening. I wonder if they were chasing for that headline while releasing those estimates

Well, maybe studios will start to think about releasing movies 1 week in advance of the US/worldwide release date in China. China would never pass up on that.

China will be equal in B.O grosses with the u.s in a couple of years and then will surpass it.

Naah that will still take another 10-12 years time I think, mostly the blockbusters are this huge (not all of those as well). For instance look at Pirates and HP they will be well below half of their domestic gross (HP is just an assumption though I don't see it breaking $150m).

10-12 years is too long. I think in 5 years or less big films will top 100m on the regular

With the quota of 20 foreign films per year, of course some of those will be huge. Kinda like in Soviet Union, where around 50 foreign films had over 40 m tickets sold in 60s-80s, because the demand was big and the supply was so short. In comparison, around 100 Soviet films crossed 40 m tickets in 60s-80s.
Also, Hollywood studios get only 13% of Chinese grosses. Even though the market is gonna be huge, government will never give much to outsiders.

Only 13% that's fucked up deal for Hollywood

Updated 4-day estimate: 410m yuan, $63.4m.

I think the number is higher. Their weekly top 10 shows quite a few foreign releases.

With $63.4m 4-day and $17.5 OD the 3-day number should be $45.9m, still a good $6m higher than the estimates from THR, Variety, BOM and other sources.

That's because they are co-producing films in China to circumvent the quota.

So more daily numbers from Mtime's article:

Thursday - close to 100m yuan ($15.5m);
Friday - 87m yuan ($13.5m);
Saturday - 112m yuan ($17.4m);
Sunday - just over 100m yuan ($15.5m);

4-day - 400m yuan ($62m)

xia are those actuals or still estimates? We have gone from $70m+ to $67m, $63m and now $62m, what kind of over-estimation is this

Don't be surprised to see it goes lower. I'm now seeing the number 393m yuan being reported.

On the other hand, the $70m+ number was never a real estimate, but a guesstimate by a few enthusiastic posters in China after the initial report.

What's the projection from here on out?

So let's just say this will have $58m-$60m in the end for 4-day. That is not a great IM still huge opening

Not that Hollywood isn't rich enough, but that kind of restriction is ridiculous. 13%

Hopefully the Communist government falls within the next decade. Motherfuckers don't deserve to subject all the Chinese to their shit principles. Corrupted clowns.

That's not gonna happen. You'll see the fall of the EU and USA sooner than the fall of Chinese government, you capitalist bastard. Fuck democracy.

Whoa, boy.

LOL this is HILARIOUS

Here are the actuals for last week:

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon（变形金刚3）- 404m ($62.66m) New 95,441 9,503,646 404m ($62.66m)
2. Wu Xia（武侠）- 16m ($2.48m) -68.9% 25,923 478,612 168m ($25.99m)
3. Mysterious Island（孤岛惊魂）- 15.7m ($2.44m) -61.9% 25,969 521,768 80.7m ($12.50m)
4. Treasure Inn（财神客栈）- 5.6m ($0.87m) -62.7% 9,840 185,185 101.6m ($15.72m)
5. Shen Zhou 11（飞天）- 5.4m ($0.84m) New 1,671 157,205 6.2m ($0.96m)
6. Unthinkable（战略特勤组）- 5.4m ($0.84m) -72.3% 9,833 173,521 28.8m ($4.46m)
7. Beginning of the Great Revival（建党伟业）- 5m ($0.78m) -64.3% 6,217 169,548 360m ($55.66m)
8. Legend of a Rabbit（兔侠传奇）- 3.8m ($0.59m) -68.3% 8,560 112,659 15.8m ($2.45m)
9. Coming Back（回马枪）- 3.4m ($0.53m) -29.2% 10,539 124,635 8.2m ($1.27m)
10. To Love or Not（一夜情未了）- 2.3m ($0.36m) -20.7% 7,517 78,284 5.2m ($0.81m)

So what's the actual daily break down including OD preview.s

I think these numbers should be quite close given that the 4-day estimate is $62.6m.

Mentioned it in the blog:

Midnight - 12m yuan ($1.86m)
Thursday w/ midnight - 102.3m yuan ($15.86m)
Saturday - 112m yuan ($17.37m)

Friday and Sunday weren't specified in the article, but from the reports, look like Friday was just under 90m yuan and Sunday just over 100m yuan.

Also 3D-only releases don't count against the quota.