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 Japan Box Office (& More): Video Game Sales (06/22-28) 
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Mr. R wrote:
So why is Hollywood declining?


I believe the reason is because the average person in Japan chooses only one or two films a year to see in theaters. And of those films, it's usually a well known property (tv show, anime/manga, etc).

Here is a screendaily article from a few weeks ago (they forgot to mention This Is It in it however):

Quote:

Hollywood struggles in Japan

After North America and India, Japan is the third biggest box office market in the world, way ahead of the UK, Germany and France. Japanese audiences used to adore Hollywood and its stars: back in 1997 Titanic did huge business in Japan, with Leonardo DiCaprio worshipped as a demi-God. But although the Japanese box office is growing impressively in the face of global recession, it is being driven by huge local films and stars rather than US blockbusters. Only the latest Harry Potter film has grossed more than $35m this year – $84m - with local titles such as Rookies notching up nearly $100m. Japanese films tend to be based on hit TV shows, manga and novels and with Japanese audiences seeing a low 1.3 movies per capita annually and paying the highest ticket prices in the world, they choose safely.




Dr. Lecter wrote:
Spirited Away is unlikely to be beaten in Yen anytime soon, hm?


Yeah, very unlikely. It's going to hold for a long, long time. It might be beaten in USD, but only Miyazaki or some unforeseen breakout hit (even more unlikely because original films rarely become hits now) will be able to do it. Ponyo for example grossed 15.5b yen ($172m), which is about half in yen compared to Spirited Away, but the USD total was "closer", though still $60m+ off.

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Last edited by Corpse on Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Jan. 2-3, 2010 rankings (admissions)

1 1 AVATAR FOX 2
2 2 Nodame Cantabile The Movie I (JPN.) Toho 3
3 4 UP Disney 5
4 3 One Piece Film Strong World (JPN.Animation) Toei 4
5 6 Free And Easy 20 Final (JPN.) Shochiku 2
6 5 Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider W & Decade Movie Taisen 2010 (JPN.) Toei 4
7 7 2012 SPE 7
8 13 A Tale Of Ululu's Wonderful Forest (JPN.) Toho 3
9 8 Professor Layton And The Eternal Diva (JPN.Animation) Toho 3
10 12 MICHAEL JACKSON'S THIS IS IT SPE 10


Well apparently This Is It is still in release afterall.

The only number known right now is Up ($3.1m/$41.2m).

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:17 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Quote:
Japan has generated $36.2m

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Nazgul9 wrote:
Quote:
Japan has generated $36.2m


Nice, where did you find this?

12-day total:

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 38.1m
Avatar - 36.2m


Avatar's second week was a holiday week however, so I still can't see $100m for it. Harry Potter fell $14m short of the target, and Rookies was at $33m after 9 days and was just under $10m from $100m, neither of which had the luxury of a holiday second week with no new openers. I'd go with $80m or so.

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:51 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Corpse wrote:
Nice, where did you find this?

Screendaily got the figure...

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:58 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Cool.

If Up went up 9m for the holiday week (3.1m being for the weekend), I'd guess Avatar's weekend will be around $7m again.

Which is great (if it fails to do $100m, don't be disappointed. The Hollywood Box Office keeps dropping year after year now), and would challenge HP6's second weekend of $6.6m. Though Avatar did benefit from holidays where HP6 didn't. If it follows past years, I'd say it'll gross around $4/4.5m this coming weekend, which probably won't challenge HP6's $5.6m third weekend. And it def won't challenge Rookies $8m third weekend.

But it's impossible to say, $100m can't be ruled out, though it's unlikely.

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:05 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Some totals after last weekend (Top 4)

Avatar - 3,000,000,000+ yen (33-35m) after 12 days.
Nodame Cantabile - 2,000,000,000+ (21-23m) after 18 days.
Up - 3,700,000,000+ (40-42m) after 30 days.
One Piece - 3,750,000,000+ (40-42m) after 23 days.

Up (has pretty much matched Wall-E's total in 30 days) and One Piece (becomes distributor Toei's fastest film to 3.75b yen) enter the Top 10 of 2009.

Huge December.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:18 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Jan.2-3, 2010

1. Avatar Fox Int'l $7,351,042 2 840 $8,751 11 $35,050,720
2. Nodame Cantabile: The Final Score - Part I Toho $3,252,911 3 409 $7,953 8 $23,979,527
3. Up Walt Disney Int'l $2,928,793 5 616 $4,755 13 $40,103,323
4. One Piece Film: Strong World TOEI $2,611,102 4 194 $13,459 1 $39,439,879
5. Free and Easy 20: Final Shochiku $1,105,212 2 176 $6,280 49 $3,102,237
6. 2012 Sony Int'l $1,033,978 7 538 $1,922 24 $38,026,185
7. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Double & Decade: Movie War2010 TOEI $955,342 4 293 $3,261 -3 $13,414,727
8. Tale of Ululu's Wonderful Forest, A Toho $626,061 3 324 $1,932 62 $3,409,623
9. Professor Layton and the Eternal Diva Toho $569,624 3 311 $1,832 8 $4,270,243
10. Michael Jackson's This Is It Sony Int'l $503,048 10 156 $3,225 5 $51,542,135


The increases are a bit lower than previous years, but that might have been due to New Years being the day before the weekend.

Avatar's number is very good, but it's not matching the wow factor in pretty much every other key market where it's breaking records and entering all time charts, etc. In Japan, it's not doing any of that. It's not in the Top 10 of 2009 yet either. Though it does have the Wednesday opening record (though almost no local films ever open on a Wednesday). But that was probably to have been expected considering the Hollywood market right now. I won't rule out $100m until I see next weeks numbers, but based on this weeks, I see a total of around $75/80m. It's 2nd Weekend, a Holiday weekend, is lower than Rookies 3rd Non-Holiday weekend for example.

Nodame Cantabile is doing very well, and is yet another hit for the drama show adaptation genre. $40m+ is likely, and it'll battle 2012, which should finish in the low 40's, for the No.10 spot of 2009 I believe.

Up's weekend is actually lower than Wall-E's despite being quite a bit higher every other weekend so far, but it'll probably pass, or at least match, Wall-E's total after next weekend. $50m+ is assured, and probably a top 5 spot for the year.

One Piece: Strong World stayed flat, but has become TOEI's fastest film to reach it's mark. It'll need to beat Partner's $50m total to become their biggest film, which is very likely. And it's doing all this on less than 200 screens.

This Is It is still hanging in there, though it'll begin to fade away now. But still, a finish of about $53m is incredible, and it'll be a close race between it, Up, and One Piece to for the Top 5 of 2009, two of them isn't going to make it (Rookies, Harry Potter, Avatar, Red Cliff Part II will be the top 4), though I guess it's possible Red Cliff Part II ($59m) could fall out, but it's unlikely.


My Projected Top 10:

* = run over.

1. Rookies - 90.5m *
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 86m *
3. Avatar - 78m
4. Red Cliff Part II - 59.7m *
5. Up - 55m
6. One Piece: Strong World - 54m
7. Michael Jackson's This Is It - 52.5m
8. Pokemon the 12th Movie - $50.2m *
9. 20th Century Boys Chapter 3 - Redemption - 46.7m *
10. Evangelion 2.0 - $43m *, Nodame Catabile - 42m, 2012 - 41m

The top 10 should be locked up, with possible ranking changes between films 5-7. And the 10th spot is going to be close.

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Wed Jan 06, 2010 6:23 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Yukihiko Tsutsumi's (20th Century Boys Trilogy which grossed over $120m) new film, Beck, is set for a Fall release.

Quote:
The official website for Yukihiko Tsutsumi's live-action film adaptation of Harold Sakuishi's Beck rock-and-roll manga has begun streaming 30 seconds of the latest footage from the film on Wednesday.

Image

Hiro Mizushima, the star of the manga-based Absolute Boyfriend, Hana Zakari no Kimitachi e: Ikemen Paradise, and Lovely Complex projects, plays the charismatic guitarist and band leader Ryusuke Minami, while Takeru Satoh (Princess Princess D, Kamen Rider Den-O, Rookies) plays the ordinary high school boy Koyuki. After a chance encounter between these two, Koyuki joins Minami's five-person rock band, Beck, on its rise to stardom.

Rounding out the band's roster are Kenta Kiritani (Crows Zero, Rookies) as the rapper Chiba, Aoi Nakamura (Shinigami no Ballad., Q.E.D., Koizora) as the drummer Yuji Sakurai, and Osamu Mukai (Honey and Clover, Nodame Cantabile, Monochrome Factor, Mei-chan no Shitsuji) as the bass guitarist Taira.

A 15-second version of the new footage also appeared on the NTV television program Zoom In!! Super on Wednesday. The film will feature about 30 original songs, although the real-life production team of the songs have yet to be announced. Director Yukihiko Tsutsumi (20th Century Boys, Trick, Ikebukuro West Gate Park, H2) began shooting the film at the beginning of last July, and Shochiku will distribute the film in Japan this fall.

The original manga ended in Kodansha's Monthly Shonen Magazine in 2008 in Japan, and 15 million copies of the 34 volumes have been published since it began in 1998. Whereas Koyuki was the protagonist of the original manga, the film will focus on Ryusuke. Tokyopop published the first 12 volumes in North America, and Funimation completed its release of 2004-2005's BECK: Mongolian Chop Squad anime version in 2008.

Source - ANN, Eiga

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Thu Jan 07, 2010 1:46 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
What's wrong with Japanese market in last few years? :disgust:

I hope that Avatar will have a very long legs in Japan, all I will lose my faith in this market. :(


Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:20 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
The audience isn't willing to pay for a near 1,800 yen ticket (about $20 USD) to view a film they aren't sure they'll like. The economy has only added to that. And the Avatar tickets, in 3D/IMAX are probably over $30 USD. Opening week 3D accounted for 75% of the gross, but that's now down to about 60%. To me, that pretty much shows the unwillingness to pay so much for an unsure product since it's way over 60% in basically every other key market (that has enough 3D/Imax screens available). The local films are now thriving due to this; they are much safer choices.

I posted similar things before it opened to sort of keep expectations down given Hollywood's struggle. Avatar isn't going to be entering any all time charts or anything like that in this market.

However, I noticed the numbers 42m figure, which I guess means it added about $7m from the 4-6th which is very good. And like I said, 100m isn't out of play yet. It's going to require great WOM, which it seems to be getting.

Anyway, even if it does fail to hit 100m and ends with 80m or so, it's not like that's a disappointment That's huge for a Hollywood film these days. Biggest Non-Potter/Pirates Hollywood film in over 6 years.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Thu Jan 07, 2010 5:57 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Hmm, assuming Avatar's WoM is as good in Japan as elsewhere...I see $80+ million.

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Thu Jan 07, 2010 8:27 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Eiga popularity update:
Scale - 1 = Will never see, 2 = Unlikely to see, 3 = undecided, 4 = Likley to see, 5 = Will see

Top 10 Most Viewed Films

1. Avatar - 4.4 (1114 votes)
2. Nodame Cantabile The Movie Part I - 4.7 (1936 votes)
3. Up - 4.6 (883 votes)
4. Alice in Wonderland - 5.0 (762 votes)
5. Solanin - 4.9 (228 votes)
6. Sayoitsu - 4.9 (581 votes)
7. Higanjima - 4.4 (121 votes)
8. 2012 - 4.8 (1031 votes)
9. One Piece Strong World - 4.8 (982 votes)
10. Michael Jackson's This Is It - 4.9 (1934 votes)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:55 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Release Schedule (known dates), Jan-July



January

Spoiler: show
9th
Masakiku aruba (2009)
Sophie's Revenge (2009)
Ong bak 2 (2008)
Planet B-Boy (2007)
Shibuya (2010)
Im Spiegel der Maya Deren (2002)
Capitalism: A Love Story (2009)
(500) Days of Summer (2009)

15th
Where the Wild Things Are (2009)

16th
Bandeiji (2010)
Blue Gold: World Water Wars (2008)
Män som hatar kvinnor (2009)
Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky (2009)

22nd
Océans (2009)
Surrogates (2009)
The Haunting in Connecticut (2009)

23rd
Sayonara itsuka (2009)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009)
A Perfect Getaway (2009)

29th
The Lovely Bones (2009)

30th
Paranormal Activity (2007)
Kanzen naru shiiku: Maid for you (2010)
Telitalálat (2003)
Otôto (2010)
Samurai sentai Shinkenjâ Tai Gôonjâ Ginmakuban! (2010)
Árvácska (1976) (re-release)
Gôruden suranbâ (2010)



February

Spoiler: show
5th
Invictus (2009)
The Private Lives of Pippa Lee (2009)

6th
Satsuma ogojo (2010)
Los abrazos rotos (2009)
Shokudo katasumuri (2009)
Last Chance Harvey (2008)
Suzumiya Haruhi no Shoshitsu (2010)
Raiâ gêmu: Za fainaru sutêji (2010)
Toy Story (1995) (3-D version) (re-release)
Toy Story 2 (1999) (3-D version) (re-release)
Kôchi: 40-sai no figyua sukêtâ (2010)

11th
Kôshônin: The movie - Taimu limitto kôdo 10,000 M no zunôsen (2010)

12th
Valentine's Day (2010)

13th
Død snø (2009)
Kwasok scandle (2008)
Hannah Montana: The Movie (2009)
Coraline (2009)
It's Complicated (2009)

20th
Ningen shikkaku (2010)
Rudo y Cursi (2008)
New York, I Love You (2009)

26th
Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief (2010)

27th
Pour elle (2008)
Saru lock (2010)
Bakjwi (2009)



March

Spoiler: show
6th
The Princess and the Frog (2009)
The Hurt Locker (2008)
Liar Game: The Final Stage (2010)

12th
Did You Hear About the Morgans? (2009)
Sherlock Holmes (2009)

13th
I Love You Phillip Morris (2009)
Gamer (2009)

19th
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant (2009)
Nine (2009)

20th
Nordwand (2008)
Shorts (2009)
Brüno (2009)
Up in the Air (2009/I)
G-Force (2009)

27th
Cop Out (2010)
Shelter (2010/II)
Armored (2009)
Memoirs of a Teenage Amnesiac (2010)



April

Spoiler: show
3rd
Clash of the Titans (2010)

17th
Nodame Cantabile The Movie Part II (2010)
Alice in Wonderland (2010)

29th
Arthur et la vengeance de Maltazard (2009)




May

Spoiler: show
8th
9 (2009/I)

10th
Zebraman 2: Zebra City no gyakushû (2010)

28th
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (2010)

29th
Zatôichi: The Last (2010)




June

Spoiler: show
11th
Iron Man 2 (2010)

12th
Sex and the City 2 (2010)
Outrage (2010)

26th
Entre les murs (2008)



July

Spoiler: show
3rd
Bayside Shakedown 3 (2010)

10th
Pokemon the 13th Movie (2010)

31st
Inception (2010)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Last edited by Corpse on Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:31 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Corpse wrote:
The audience isn't willing to pay for a near 1,800 yen ticket (about $20 USD) to view a film they aren't sure they'll like. The economy has only added to that. And the Avatar tickets, in 3D/IMAX are probably over $30 USD. Opening week 3D accounted for 75% of the gross, but that's now down to about 60%. To me, that pretty much shows the unwillingness to pay so much for an unsure product since it's way over 60% in basically every other key market (that has enough 3D/Imax screens available). The local films are now thriving due to this; they are much safer choices.

I posted similar things before it opened to sort of keep expectations down given Hollywood's struggle. Avatar isn't going to be entering any all time charts or anything like that in this market.

However, I noticed the numbers 42m figure, which I guess means it added about $7m from the 4-6th which is very good. And like I said, 100m isn't out of play yet. It's going to require great WOM, which it seems to be getting.

Anyway, even if it does fail to hit 100m and ends with 80m or so, it's not like that's a disappointment That's huge for a Hollywood film these days. Biggest Non-Potter/Pirates Hollywood film in over 6 years.


yeah but still disappointing that Japan would make only $80m in total.
i was expecting at least $120m. :(
seems like it will be impossible for Avatar to hit more than $1.8 billion worldwide unless Japan gets more than $100m


Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:01 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Toho 2010 outlook:

Quote:
The Japanese film industry, at least the top end where Toho and its media partners dwell, is looking forward to a prosperous 2010, with a lineup of crowd-pleasers that should thump the Hollywood competition.

Japan's biggest domestic distributor, Toho will release 30 films in 2010, including several potential blockbusters — that is, films expected to gross ¥5 billion or more.

One of those films is the third outing in the "Odoru Daisousasen" ("Bayside Shakedown") series, about a cheeky detective, played by Yuji Oda, who battles bad guys and police bureaucracy with the aid of lovably oddball coworkers. The film is scheduled to open in July. The second installment, released in 2003, finished with ¥17.35 billion, the most for any Japanese live-action film ever.

Also looking to rake in the yen, starting in September, is the third entry in the "Umizaru" series, about elite divers in the Japanese Coast Guard. The previous film, which opened in 2006, grossed ¥7.1 billion.

Both "Umizaru 3" and "Odoru Daisousasen 3" are made by the Fuji TV network, whose chief producer, Chihiro Kameyama, stands accused by critics of making films that are glorified television episodes. He and other network film producers plead guilty, since so many of their products either began life as a hit TV series ("Odoru Daisousasen") or provided the template for one ("Umizaru").

They also laugh all the way to the board meeting, since these adapted-from-TV films so often hit the box-office gong, such as last year's No. 1 box-office film "Rookies, a TBS high school baseball dramady that was little more than a TV special — but earned ¥8.5 billion.

Meanwhile, indie filmmakers, even ones with prestigious festival prizes on their resumes, are finding it harder to assemble backers in a difficult market for anything but multiplex fare. Also, the minitheaters (i.e., art houses) that are their natural homes have been opting for more popular programming to attract young fans, and once friendly festivals are sending their precious invitations to anime and genre films that would have once been beneath their notice.

Even so, leading indie directors have always found ways to get their films made, and this year will be no exception. Look for them at Berlin, Cannes, Venice and other major fests — if not in quite the numbers seen in previous years.

So what will be the big films in 2010, not only box-office-wise, but worth- watching-wise? In order of release:

"Ototo" ("Younger Brother")

(release date: Jan. 30) : Yoji Yamada's latest is his first contemporary drama in nearly a decade. Tsurube Shofukutei and Sayuri Yoshinaga — who also appeared in Yamada's World War II drama "Kabei" ("Kabei: Our Mother," 2008) — reunite on screen as a ne'er-do-well brother and an older sister who can't stop worrying about him. This may sound like "Tora-san Redux," but Yamada keeps the schmaltz content low and the pathos on high.

"Golden Slumber"

(Jan. 30) : Yoshihiro Nakamura tops his minor masterpiece of last year, "Fish Story," with a thriller about a delivery guy (Masato Sakai) framed as the killer in a successful plot to assassinate Japan's prime minister. As usual with Nakamura, the story takes clever twists, though the emotional wallop at the end is anything but contrived. After several almost-but-not-quite attempts, this could be his box-office breakthrough.

"Ningen Shikkaku" ("No Longer Human")

(Feb. 20) : Producer/director Genjiro Arato's new drama is based on the famous Osamu Dazai novel. Stage and TV drama star Toma Ikuta makes his screen debut as Dazai's alienated young hero, pulled one way by love, another by dark, suicidal thoughts. A career-defining masterpiece — or art-house tedium?

"Parade"

(February) : Selected for the panorama section of the Berlin Film Festival, this ensemble drama by Isao Yukisada begins like an episode of TV show "Friends": Two guys and two gals in their 20s coexist uneasily in a cramped Tokyo apartment. But a teenage male hustler who insinuates himself into their circle becomes a target of dark suspicions — and a catalyst for surprising and finally shocking revelations.

"Zebraman 2: Zebra no Gyakushu" ("Zebraman 2: Zebra Counterattack")

(May 1) : Takashi Miike's followup to his hit 2004 action comedy about a nebbishy superhero. Sho Aikawa returns as the hero and Kankuro Kudo as the scriptwriter, but the story unfolds in 2025 and, from the trailer, looks to be more on the hyperkinetic than comic side. With yakuza movie icon Aikawa at its center and Miike at the helm, though, the film won't be the usual sci-fi outing.

"Kokuhaku" ("Confession")

(June 6) : Tetsuya Nakashima, director of "Kiraware Matsuko no Issho" ("Memories of Matsuko," 2006), and "Shimotsuna Monogatari" ("Kamikaze Girls," 2004) — two of the best Japanese films of the past decade — returns with a drama set at a junior high school, based on a best-selling novel. The catch-phrase: Thirty-seven 13-year-olds confess.

"Karigurashi no Arrietty" ("Arrietty Borrows Everything")

(summer) : Studio Ghibli's latest feature animation is based on the classic Mary Norton fantasy novel "The Borrowers." Ghibli veteran Hiromasa Yonebayashi directs, while studio maestro Hayao Miyazaki scripts and supervises. The last time Ghibli tried a similar experiment with a foreign children's book, for the 2006 "Gedo Senki" ("Tales of Earthsea"), the result was a formulaic disappointment. Have lessons been learned?

"13-nin no Shikaku" ("13 Assassins")

(fall) : A samurai swashbuckler starring Koji Yakusho and directed by Takashi Miike, this promises to be a fun time for all — maybe. Sword action is hard to make interesting and new — the weight of its cliched past is too heavy — but if anyone can do it, it's the always-inventive Miike.

"Outrage"

(fall) : Takeshi Kitano's first gangster pic since 2000's "Brother," "Outrage" promises a return to violent and entertaining form after several self-indulgent outings. Kitano plays a low-ranking gang boss charged with doing the dirty work for his superiors. The cast list reads like a Who's Who of top male character actors, including Tomokazu Miura, Ryo Kase and Jun Kunimura.

"Space Battleship Yamato"

(December) : Takashi Yamazaki, of the famous "Always" films, is directing a live-action, big-budget version of the iconic 1970s Leiji Matsumoto anime space opera, starring SMAP "boy" Takuya Kimura. Huge expectations are being placed on the film; it's like Japan's "Avatar." A computer-graphics whiz for the Shirogumi effects house, Yamazaki launched his directing career with the sci-fi pics "Juvenile" (2000) and "Returner" (2002), though the results, creatively and commercially, were mediocre. But he has progressed considerably since, as has the technology under his command.

Most of these are commercial films, but many good indie films, whose makers often have to scramble for distribution, will pop up as well. So there will be plenty of reasons to go to the theater through the year — and to keep up with those Japanese lessons.


If you follow these threads, you'll know that Toho dominates the Box Office in Japan. In 2008 they earned $817.5m, third year in a row for them breaking their own record, and estimates as of November of 2009 put them at $801.5m for the year, not including December earnings. But they clearly broke their own record again thanks to Nodame Cantabile Part I.

It looks like they'll easily beat their own record once again in 2010 with some huge films being released. I'd bet on $900m+.

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Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:09 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
wogusvh wrote:
Corpse wrote:
The audience isn't willing to pay for a near 1,800 yen ticket (about $20 USD) to view a film they aren't sure they'll like. The economy has only added to that. And the Avatar tickets, in 3D/IMAX are probably over $30 USD. Opening week 3D accounted for 75% of the gross, but that's now down to about 60%. To me, that pretty much shows the unwillingness to pay so much for an unsure product since it's way over 60% in basically every other key market (that has enough 3D/Imax screens available). The local films are now thriving due to this; they are much safer choices.

I posted similar things before it opened to sort of keep expectations down given Hollywood's struggle. Avatar isn't going to be entering any all time charts or anything like that in this market.

However, I noticed the numbers 42m figure, which I guess means it added about $7m from the 4-6th which is very good. And like I said, 100m isn't out of play yet. It's going to require great WOM, which it seems to be getting.

Anyway, even if it does fail to hit 100m and ends with 80m or so, it's not like that's a disappointment That's huge for a Hollywood film these days. Biggest Non-Potter/Pirates Hollywood film in over 6 years.


yeah but still disappointing that Japan would make only $80m in total.
i was expecting at least $120m. :(
seems like it will be impossible for Avatar to hit more than $1.8 billion worldwide unless Japan gets more than $100m



Gah, I don't think you understand just how big $80m would be.

1. Original films rarely do big business anymore in Japan.

2. Hollywood films are seeing huge drops each year. I posted a few examples way back, for instance: Ice Age 3 dropped like 80% from Ice Age 2. Terminator IV dropped around 60% from Terminator 3 (the series was once very popular). Angels and Demons dropped 55% from The Da Vinci Code. Transformers 2 dropped 30% from Transformers. That's just in USD, the Yen drop would be even larger. Even the most consistent franchise of this decade, Harry Potter, has experienced severe drops. HP1 - 20b yen, HP2 - 17b yen, HP3 - 13b yen, HP4 - 11b yen, HP5 - 9.5b yen, HP6 - 8b yen. In USD, HP6 grossed nearly $100m less than the original. Iron Man 2 will be lucky to reach 7/8m this year (the original grossed just under $10m).

3. $80m would make Avatar the biggest Hollywood film, not including Potter or Pirates, in 6 years. And the gap between any big Hollywood film vs Potter/Pirates is huge, over $20m. And there's still a good chance Avatar can go above $80m. $100m isn't out of the question yet.


And any ground it loses in Japan is easily being made up from countries such as China, Russia, and Spain.

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Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:28 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
It's just interesting to see how, just as many foreign markets seem to have significantly expanded this decade, Japan has become less favorable to Hollywood.

Something like MI:2 did $95m in 2000 when maybe it wouldn't even make half of that in the current market climate. At least action films seem to be getting some compensation from China's rapid expansion as they see diminishing returns from Japan (I'm lookin' at you, Transformers franchise).


Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:18 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
It's not really surprising. Japan has been stagnant economically since 1992. They've barely budged.

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Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:20 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Box wrote:
It's not really surprising. Japan has been stagnant economically since 1992. They've barely budged.

ew

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Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:56 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Avatar has crossed 4b yen (on day 17) heading into it's third weekend. So about 43m, and the 19 day total will probably be around $48m. I'll post some comparisons in a few minutes.

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Last edited by Corpse on Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:22 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Only a few films (2007-2009) which grossed over $80 are included here:

2-day openers
2008 Boys Over Flowers: The Movie Final ($87m) - $35.7m after 16 days.
2009 Rookies: The Movie ($90.5m) - $49.5m after 16 days
2008 Ponyo ($172m) - $49.8m after 16 days

3-day openers
2007 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix ($88m) - $44m after 17 days.
2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($102m) - $50.8m after 17 days

5-day openers
2009 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($86m) - $50.2m after 19 days



If Avatar is at $43/44 after 17 days, that's very impressive even if 7 of those days were holiday days. I'd assume the coming weekend will be around $5 or so, so that'll be a total of about $48m after 19 days. It'll still be tough to guess a total right now though since it'll be the only Holiday opener of the films that have grossed over $80 the past few years.

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Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:50 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
Encouraging...

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Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:26 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
One Piece Strong World also broke the 4b yen mark heading into the weekend. On top of that, it's also broke several Toei (second biggest distributor in Japan) records, which include:

-Fastest film to reach 1b yen ($11.7m in 2 days),
2b yen (about $21/22m USD, day 7),
3b yen (not sure what day),
and now 4b yen (about $42/43m USD, day 28).

-Biggest opening/single day, 553m yen (just over $6m USD)
-Biggest second day, 485m yen (about $5.5m USD)

-Biggest Opening Weekend (1.04b yen or $11.7m)
-Biggest PTA ($62,200), which isn't just a company record, but a country record for opening weekend.

-Fastest film to hit 1m admissions (probably day 3, the 2day was 820,000),
2m admissions,
3m admissions (day 24),
and now 3.5m admissions (day 28).

And it hasn't played on more than 194 screens, which is about half the screens the usual big local films receive, and about a third to a fourth of the bigger Hollywood films. All Toei records unless I mentioned otherwise. Toei is still aiming for 5b yen, or about $54/55m USD, which will put it in contest against Up and Red Cliff Part II for the Top 5 of 2009.

http://eiga.com/buzz/20100109/4/


Toei's biggest film, Partners: The Movie (Toei) $49.31m (4.44b yen), released last year, is going to be beat soon too.

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Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:10 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office (2010)
According to THR (keep in mind they and screendaily are usually just a tiny bit high with their numbers here), some totals after this weekend:

2012 - $40.5m
Up - $46.6m
Avatar - $50.8m

Avatar is right with Harry Potter 6 now after 19 days, so $90m is looking pretty good right now. Also, this past week was quite strong it appears. These are some great holds.

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Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:39 pm
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