Well, it's time to make some thoughts on how the Top 10 of next year will be shaped like.

Right now the Top 10 of 2009 looks like this:

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $402,111,870
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $301,873,998
3. Up - $293,004,164
4. The Hangover - $277,170,2535
5. Star Trek - $257,730,019
6. The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $206,074,000
7. Monsters Vs. Aliens - $198,351,526 4,136
8. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $196,573,705
9. X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $179,883,157
10. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian - $177,243,721

Some changes will still happen. New Moon will move up, The Blind Side will move in and so will Avatar but I don't expect much more to happen (don't see Sherlock Holmes passing $196 million to be honest).

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My predicted Top 10 of 2010


1. Iron Man 2 - $405 million

The original was a huge hit with great WoM and a start of a new franchise. Unlike Spider-Man, Iron Man was not such a well-known name when the first movie hit the theatres meaning that the fanbase only expanded after the first film. The first movie had good legs and surprisingly ended up as the 2nd-biggest movie of 2008, even ahead of Indiana Jons and the Kingdom of Crystal Skull. On DVD it has proven to be a big hit as well. Overall one could say that Iron Man's success is similar to that of Transfofmers. Both are rare non-sequels that managed to gross over $300 million during their run. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen grossed over $402 million this year, increasing about 25% over the first film and that despite toxic reviews. Iron Man 2 will be the movie to kick off the summer next year which already guarantees it a huge opening. The first folm made around $100 million opening weekend last year so that the sequel is pretty much guaranteed a $140+ million start. On top of that, unlike Transformers 2 I expect it to be at least solid and get decent WoM. It won't have the summer weekdays of Transformers 2 but better weekend drops should make up for that. I see it topping Transformers 2 by a little and probably the original Spider-Man as well. It might not be the movie with the perceived biggest buzz next year (I'd argue that Transformers 2 also didn't have the biggest perceived buzz this year) but it will top the year nonetheless.


2. Toy Story 3 - $385 million

Pixar is undefeatable. Eight $200+ million grossers in a row. Up ended up as their 2nd-biggest film with $293 million. Toy Story films are modern classics. The last Toy Story film made around $246 million back in 1999 which was a 28.2% increase over the original's gross. A similar incease would give us $315 million for Toy Story 3. However this time we're dealing with a wait of 11 years and not just four. Moreover, the Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D combo grossing over $30 million has shown that demand is definitely there. The 3D factor will just add to its success and a June release date means it'll enjoy summer weekdays to the fullest. I don't think it'll be another Shrek 2 but that film has shown the potential of sequels to well-received animated films. This is the only film next year that has a chance to top Iron Man 2.


3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I - $328 million

While Toy Story 3 and Iron Man 2 will likely be next year's biggest films, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows will likely be the year's most hyped film. New Moon has shown that the potential for a huge opening even in November is there. The last three Harry Potter films all increased over their predecessors and were all relatively well-received. No reason to believe that this will change now. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince became the first Potter film since the first to finally break $300 million but the biggest increase over its predecessor was achieved by Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire which jumped by 16% over Prisoner of Azkaban. I always thought and still think that the Harry Potter films are just made for the holiday season and this is the first Potter flick to be released in November since Goblet of Fire. With next December looking realy weak it should have a big opening ($120-130 million) and play well over the holiday season. This will finally become the Harry Potter film to beat the first one in unadjusted numbers.


4. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $325 million

New Moon is heading towards $310-330 million and there's no reason to believe that the fanbase will be less rabid by the time the third movie hits the screens. A summer release date, in particular one right before July 4th will give it a huge opening but the legs should be quite short. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince didn't manage to double its five-day opening and Eclipse will be even more frontloaded than that. It's possible that it'll approach $180-190 million in its first five days and yet won't make much more than New Moon. Still this is a new huge franchise and the switch to the summer won't hurt it in any way.


5. Shrek Forever After - $312 million

The last Shrek film was a big success, grossing $322 million but it has also shown clear signs of frontloading. It barely got to a multiplier of 2.65 after a humongous $120 million opening. The thing is that unlike Shrek 2 it wasn't well-received at all. However, this time around it'll have 3D to make up for the mediocre reception of the last film and it'll also be the first big 3D animated film for the kids since How to Train Your Dragon which will be released in March. That alone will give it a good $110+ million opening again so even if legs will falter once again it'll still cross $300 million.


6. Inception - $273 million

This is a big wild card next summer but let's look at the facts. Christopher Nolan became one of the biggest names in business after delivering the 2nd-biggest movie of all-time. The marketing will VERY heavily rely on the fact that it's from the maker of that film. With films like Blood Diamond and The Departed, DiCaprio established himself as a movie star that is being taken seriously by moviegoers. The first teaser was released about a year before the film's opening which always means great confidence in the project. The teaser is reminiscent of The Matrix and I'm sure the real marketing will offer a lot of eye candy too. It also has one of the year's best release dates in the middle of July and there's no big competition for a while after its release. It's pretty much the summer's last huge action blockbuster. However as it is a completely original film not based on anything I still don't see an opening of more than $75-80 million. It'll have to rely on good legs for the rest of its run and this is what I think it'll manage. Nolan's films have all been quite leggy so far, even those that were expected to be frontloaded.


7. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time - $200 million

I'm not completely enamored by the trailer. It looks hokey and reminds me more of something like G.I.: Joe than Pirates of the Caribbean. However, it has a terrific release date with the Memorial Day Weekend all for itself (Sex and the City is really not direct competition here) and adventure flicks like this one usually end up with rather solid legs (also see National Treasure, Sahara...). It won't be huge but it has a good light summer blockbuster vibe which will help.


8. Rapunzel - $190 million

This is more of a wild guess. There are a number of 3D animated films released next year. Shrek 4 and Toy Story 3 will certainly make the yearly Top 10 however there are also still Despicable Me, How to Train Your Dragon, Rapunzel and Oobermind coming next year. With its fairy tale setting, Disney behind it and a Thanksgiving weekend release I think Rapunzel has the best chance of them to break out. As I said, next December is still pretty weak so Rapunzel should play well through the Christmas days.


9. Due Date - $185 million

Todd Phillips' follow-up to The Hangover. Robert Downey Jr, Jamie Foxx and Zach Galifianakis starring. An early November release. That sounds like a great recipe for a successful comedy flick and I think of all comedies next year this one probably has the biggest potential to break out. In particular Robert Downey Jr.'s name will be huge by then after Sherlock Holmes and Iron Man 2.


10. Alice in Wonderland - $184 million

With most of next year's hits coming from November or the summer season I think there will be one release before May and of all candidates Alice in Wonderland seems most likely. Burton has definitely delivered his share of hits in the past, indlucing Charlie and the Chocolate Factory which grossed over $200 million. Alice in Wonderland is an old story with countless adaptations and that might work against it. However I think a good marketing campaign and the 3D/IMAX factor will help it to a good $50+ million opening and it'll be able to reach $180 million at least.



Other potentials:

Gulliver's Travels - adaptation of the classic tale with Jack Black in the leading role. The director previously made Monsters Vs. Aliens and I think of all movies next December this one really does stand out as one with great potential to break out. Right now I see $160-175 million but it could do more.


The Other Guys - From the director of Talladega Nights and Anchorman a cop comedy starring The Rock, Will Ferrell, Mark Wahlberg, Samuel L. Jackson, Eva Mendes. It has an early August release date (like Talladega Nights) and should definitely at least deliver a big opening weekend. Depending on the legs it should make $140-160 million.


A-Team - hard to get a grasp on ot before a trailer but I see something similar to G.I. Joe here as well. Maybe $150-170 million tops.


Valentine's Day - this is the romcom's Ocean's Eleven. It's difficult to estimate its potential. The star cast is huge and the release date is terrific but I'm really not sure about the quality and thus the legs. This year has shown the power of female moviegoers but I still don't see this making more than $140-155 million.


Oobermind - early November release of a Dreamworks animated film. The superhoer/supevillain theme will probably sell well but it has a lot of competition throughout the month. Difficult to predict now but anything around $140-190 million can happen.


Date Night - The trailer has been very well-received and Carell/Fey seem like a great pairing but I am reluctant to predict anything above $125 million right now.


The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader - I think it'll be able to rebound from the last film's disappointment but by how much? I don't think it'll ever get close to the heights of the first film so something around $170 million is more likely.


The Sorcerer's Apprentice - Jon Turetltaub and Nicholas Cage has proven to be a winning combination in the past and a mid-July release is great but it is going up against Inception so I don't really see more than $150 million.


Little Fockers - I expect something a Rush Hour 3/The Mummy 3(Mission: Impossible 3 effect here. It'll still do well but will go down significantly. $155-165 million total.


You can check out next year's release schedule here.

I predict Zach G will be the next Seth R.
Also isn't Gulliver's more along the lines of the horrid Year One?

Anyway I don't really have a Top 10 confirmed so I'll just throw out numbers.

1. Iron Man 2 445m
2. Toy Story 3 405m
3. Potter DH 325m
4. Eclipse 310m
5. Shrek 4 285m
6. Rapunzel 250m
7. Prince of Persia 235m
8. Inception 220m
9. Dragon 205m
10. Oobermind 195m

Others
Narnia 3 180m
Little Fockers 165m
Clash of the Titans 150m
Salt 140m
Alice in Wonderland 135m
Last Airbender 125m
The Expendables 125m
Sorcerer's Apprentice 122m
Sex and the City 2 120m

I want to see SCOTT PILGRIM on the schedule.

1. Shrek 4ever - 430 mil
2. Iron Man 2 - 410 mil
3. Toy Story 3 - 350 mil
4. Harry Potter 7 Part I - 320 mil
5. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - 310 mil
6. Inception - 240 mil
7. Sex and the City 2 - 200 mil
8. Yogi Bear - 180 mil
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader - 175 mil
10. Clash of the Titans - 170 mil

Don't underestimate his Shrekness. Last time it/Spiderman/Pirates all ate each other, plus the movie sucked. The plot for 4ever sounds better and it'll have an entire month before Toy Story 3

Also Yogi Bear is in a very good release date a couple weeks before Christmas. Could be as big as Alvin and Night at the Museum

I dunno about Clash of the Titans but I put it there anyways because I couldn't think of anything else (I have Prince and Persia and A-Team bombing)

1. Toy Story 3 - 133m/455m
2. Iron Man 2 - 152m/390m
3. HP7 Part I - 150m/335m
4. Eclipse - 125m/305m
5. Shrek 4 - 110m/290m
6. Inception - 65m/250m
7. Alice in Wonderland - 62m/230m
8. Narnia 3 - 60m/210m
9. Rapunzel - 40m/180m
10. How to Train Your Dragon - 50m/175m

I assure 2-3 of these won't actually end up in the Top 10.

Iron Man 2 - $400m
Toy Story 3 - $370m
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $320m
Shrek Forever After - $315m
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows, Pt. I - $310m
Inception - $250m
Little Fockers - $200m
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader - $200m
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time - $180m
Rapunzel - $175m
Due Date - $175m
Alice in Wonderland - $170m
Sex and the City 2 - $160m
The Last Airbender - $150m

Shrek 4 will have to compete against Marmaduke in its third weekend and Prince of Persia in its second.

And isn't Yogi Bear somewhat less popular than Alvin and Scooby Doo, though?

On top of that I don't think we'll see such a low-grossing #10. I know last year the #10 film of the year made $155 million or so but it's getting rather unusual. In 2007 none of the films in the Top 10 made less than $200 million and this year's #10 looks to be a $196 million grosser at least.

Maybe, but not significantly if it is. Yogi is still a household name, everyone's heard of it or seen the cartoon at some point or another

2010 will probably lose to 2009 by a wide margin so the number 10 could have a low gross.
I don't see how we can replicate this amount of success year after year.

Seriously why are 75% of your posts pessimistic?

1. Iron Man 2- $412 million
2. Toy Story 3- $403 million
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One- $345 million (off of a $145 million OW)
4. Shrek Forever After- $325 million
5. Inception- $309 million
6. Twilight: Eclipse- $283 million
7. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time- $225 million
8. How to Train Your Dragon- $211 million
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader- $185 million
10. Tron: Legacy- $175 million

Others
Gulliver's Travels- $168 million
Little Fockers- $165 million
Oobermind- $145 million
Due Date- $140 million
Rapunzel- $125 million
Sex and the City 2- $123 million
Despicable Me- $115 million
Dinner for Schmucks- $107 million
The Sorcerer's Apprentice- $105 million
Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief- $93 million
The Last Airbender- $90 million
Hot Tub Time Machine- $53 million (though with how awesome it looks I hope it can break $100 million)
Get Him to the Greek- $45 million

My top 10 outgrossed yours.

It's the rest of the year that may not hold up well.

And it's the truth really. Can we really replicate PB, Taken and all the other crap that happened? Answer is most likely no.

That is possibile, the year could be just a lot of huge mega hits...

That's why I said 75% and not 100%.

1. Iron Man 2 $385
2. Toy Story 3 $360
3. Harry Potter 7: II $315
4. Shrek 4 $315
5. Eclipse $250
6. Alice in Wonderland $225
7. Prince of Persia $210
8. Inception $200
9. Narnia 3 $185
10. Avatar $175

I'm going to switch Rapunzel and Narnia 3, the latter is going to break out again I think.
Disney just are epically bad at marketing that's why Narnia 2 died the death it did.
Not to mention the release date change. Studios are really quite stupid.

For anyone's interest, here are the 2010 adjusted box office grosses for some of the predecessors for 2010's biggest films:

Shrek the Third $361,652,727.94
Shrek 2 $547,802,635.16
Shrek $364,610,818.87

All three Shrek's next year will be at $360 m +. With the add on of 3D, it would need to outright lose more than 30% of its audience not to do $300 m. If it loses 30%, it would still get to $304 m. As the main family for Memorial Day weekend, Shrek is tried and true. I think there will be an uptick from the last one, and that this is headed for close to $350 m. Just look at what 3D did for Pixar. Up was more likely close to a $250 m movie, and nearly became a $300 m with 3D. I had a hard time seeing DW not benefitting from it with Shrek 4. Family audiences are also quite forgiving and will probably not stop themselves from seeing Shrek 4 because of its predecessor.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $310,930,218
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $327,232,053.78
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $348,830,032.38

The November release will help Harry Potter 7, as will being the first part of the final book. I think we'll see an uptick from HP6's audience, and be just under HP5's, for about $325 m.

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $350,872,305.53
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $152,075,444.00

Narnia is a tough one to call. But at the bare minimum its headed for $150 m + imo. December is fairly light right now and so there will be room for it. I think being closer to Christmas will also increase its box office gross yet again. The first Narnia would adjust to $351 m next year, so there is plenty of room for Narnia to grow from the last one. It just isn't the type of film that works well in the summer. I think we could see about $190 m from this.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory $248,330,651.48

CATCF isn't really Alice In Wonderland's predecessor, but its close. That had the WB brand, but with the backing of Disney, with one of their iconic films, an all-star cast, a fairly open marketplace, and Johnny Depp, this certainly looks like it will be huge. It will face some competition with How To Train Your Dragon, but should still do solid business. I'm expecting about $210 m.

Toy Story 2 $373,133,917.34
Toy Story $339,942,288.83

The Toy Story predecessors are fairly close in box office gross adjusted for inflation. With 3D, the nostalgia effect, proximity to the July 4th long weekend, and a Pixar uptick with Up, it would be hard to see this not be absolutely huge. We've only see Pixar benefit once from the sequel upticks that DW has seen with Shrek 2, Shrek 3, Madagascar 2, and Fox's Ice Age 2 and Ice Age 3. The re-release of the originals certainly helped to raise awareness. The second half of summer also feels fairly empty next year after the long weekend, so there is plenty of room for it. It also has appeal to demographics across the board. I'm expecting about $360 m.

Sex and the City $163,915,091.81

The original film seemed well received and the sequel could build on the first one. I'm going to go with a $175 m total this time around.

Meet the Fockers $346,715,546.47
Meet the Parents $237,799,923.37

While it was mentioned that Meet the Parents 3 will see the Rush Hour effect, didn't we think the same about Meet the Fockers, which had a 6 year wait after the 1998 original? It's another 6 years this time around, and while it stupidly was moved from December to July, it will have a lot of trouble reaching anywhere close to its predecessor. But, the second half of the summer is fairly empty, and it has demographic appeal across the boards, so could still do solid business. I'm going to go with about $175 m.

Iron Man $341,916,058.32

I saved Iron Man 2 for last. Next year, the original Iron Man will adjust to $342 m. An uptick to $400 m with seem like barely a dent given its out of this world wom and reception (ie just a 17% increase in its adjusted box office gross). Transformers 2 wasn't the best received, and crawled its way to $402 m. I think Iron Man 2 will be a much better quality film than Transformers 2 was, and will see a huge uptick. Iron Man 1 is one of only 4 films in the top 25 all time adjusted opening weekends (Finding Nemo, TPOTC, Spider-man). It will imo open to $165 m and break the opening weekend record, on its way to roughly $440 m, and may reach #4 of all time.

While all of these are the obvious picks of 2010 aren't you guys forgetting about a little flick called Tron:legacy. I know it doesn't have a HUGE fanbase, but it's been getting alot of buzz and publicity at Comi-Con and alot of people seem excited about it. I don't expect gangbuster numbers, but it could easily be one of the breakouts of 2010 especially since it opens close to Christmas.

My early feelings:

1. Iron Man 2 - $410 million
2. Toy Story 3 - $375 million
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I - $300 million
4. Shrek Forever After - $285 million
5. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $260 million
6. Prince of Persia - $215 million
7. Alice in Wonderland - $190 million
8. Little Fockers - $180 million
9. Inception - $175 million
10. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader - $155 million

Grown Ups - $150 million
Gulliver's Travels - $150 million
Valentine's Day - $140 million
Date Night - $140 milllion
The Zookeeper - $140 million
Footloose - $135 million
Sex and the City 2 - $135 million
Clash of the Titans - $130 million
Rapunzel - $125 million
Shutter Island - $120 million
The A-Team - $120 million
Due Date - $120 million
Dinner for Schmucks - $115 million
Avatar: The Last Airbender - $100 million
The Sorcerer's Apprentice - $100 million
Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief - $90 million
How to Train Your Dragon - $90 million
Salt - $90 million

1. Iron Man 2 - $404 million
2. Toy Story 3 - $355 million
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I - $321 million
4. Shrek Forever After - $317 million
5. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $301 million
6. Inception - $272 million
7. Prince of Persia - $231 million
8. Little Fockers - $214 million
9. Alice in Wonderland - $193 million
10. Clash of the Titans - $178 million


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Due Date - $177 million
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader - $175 million
Tron: Legacy - $175 million
Gulliver's Travels - $161 million
The A-Team - $159 million
Sex and the City 2 - $144 million
The Sorcerer's Apprentice - $140 million
Rapunzel - $135 million
The Expendables - $130 million
Valentine's Day - $129 million
Shutter Island - $120 million
The Zookeeper - $114 million
Get Him to the Greek - $113 million
Yogi Bear - $110 million
Avatar: The Last Airbender - $108 million
How to Train Your Dragon - $107 million
Edge of Darkness - $105 million
Date Night - $100 milllion
Knight and Day - $100 million
Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief - $91 million
The Wolfman - $93 million
Salt - $87 million
Kick Ass - $80 million
Jonah Hex - $80 million
Unstoppable - $77 million

Looks pretty strong all up. Should be able to break the 1985..1990..1995...2000...2005 box office dip scenario. Or will it?

Your Top 10 has 11 movies

hehe fixed!

I agree with (literally) every single one of these.

1. Toy Story 3 - $440M
2. Iron Man 2 - $375M
3. Potter 7 - $350M
4. Inception - $300M
5. Shrek - $290M
6. Eclipse - $260M
7. The Zookeeper - $220M - read the script, this is gonna kill
8. How To Train Your Dragon - $190M
9. Sex and the City 2 - $175M
10. Random breakout movie

Great minds my friend, great minds

Any new additions?