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 Alvin and the Chipmunks $250 m + Club 

Will Alvin make $200 m +?
Poll ended at Fri Dec 25, 2009 10:24 pm
Yes 100%  100%  [ 6 ]
No 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 6

 Alvin and the Chipmunks $250 m + Club 
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
Post Alvin and the Chipmunks $250 m + Club
I think this will get past $200 m yet again. I think the Alvin will outgross New Moon club is pushing it, as I don't see $300 m for Alvin, but every family film is disappointing. The market is wide open for a strong family film.

Gold and silver club members will be accepted until Friday at noon (EST)!

Gold members join before the Wednesday numbers go up!

Silver members join after the Wednesday numbers go up but before the deadline.

Bronze members are those that join before weekend estimates.

Lump of coal members are those that join after weekend estimates! :P


Last edited by O on Wed Dec 30, 2009 7:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.



Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:24 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
IN


Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:26 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
Sadly, probably.


Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:34 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
Just so people know I'm just not bandwagoning on tracking, here's a post of mine from last month. Alvin will overperform yet again imo!


Initially I thought that there would be a huge, huge dropoff but I am starting to reconsider.

Cheaper By the Dozen 2 managed to retain 59.6% of its predecessor's gross. BUT, it opened the second weekend of King Kong and third of Narnia, two $200 m + films which had a lot of families go to.

Night At the Museum 2 did incredibly impressive considering its move from December to May. NATM 1 had legs of 8.25, so it was hard pressed to get close to its predecessor in May. Yet, it still retained 70.6% of its predecessor.

Pink Panther 2 didn't have a major female star with domestic appeal (ie Beyonce). Being anchored just on Steve Martin was risky. It also didn't have the nostalgia factor anymore.

Garfield 1 was pure nostalgia and its sequel had a huge drop off. The same could happen to Alvin and the Chipmunks, as it did for Scooby Doo. But, December is more forgiving than the summer if there are fewer options for families.

The reason I'm leaning toward thinking Alvin will hold better than expected is that there will be a drought of family films by the time of its release:

-Blind Side will be in its 6th weekend by Christmas
-Planet 51 disappointed
-Old Dogs looks to underwhelm
-New Moon will be very opening week oriented so by that time will have smaller but still solid grosses
-A Christmas Carol will be winding down around that time
-Fantastic Mr Fox flopped this weekend.

That leaves three films that will hurt Alvin. The Princess and the Frog, Avatar, and Sherlock Holmes. The Princess and the Frog will be in its third weekend of wide release, and will skew more toward female demographics slightly, so that leaves an opening for Alvin. It can co-exist with Princess and the Frog. Sherlock Holmes and Avatar look like they'll pull in older audiences, though teens and families will go to that too. But for very young audiences, Alvin may be preferred. Even if teens do go to those in bulk, Alvin 1 made $217 m with I Am Legend and National Treasure 2 both making $200 m in the same month. National Treasure 2 had huge family appeal.

But for family audiences, there will really only be one big family film around (Princess and the Frog). Cheesy pop culture sells, and the Chipmunks album was incredibly successful last time around. With the Chipmunks singing songs from this year, it only brings up its appeal to younger audiences.

Alvin and the Chipmunks 1 would now adjust to $235.9 m. With a 40% drop in admissions it would make $141.5 m. However, with Old Dogs, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Planet 51 all potentially underwhelming, there is a great opening for family films to burst out. It will be Princess' third weekend of release, and Alvin will be the new family film around. The next family film is Hoodwinked on January 15, 2010, so Alvin will be the only family film to open over a five week span.

But on the other side of things, this film doesn't have the nostalgia effect anymore, which will hurt it most. Even so, a string of family film disappointments opens this up to retain more of its audience now. It did have a multiplier of 4.93 and seemed to be well received by its audience.

While I am going to go with about $165 m - $175 m for now, I think the potential exists for the sequel to still do $200 m +...


Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:43 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
IN IN IN IN


Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:57 pm
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
LadiesMan217 wrote:
IN IN IN IN


You are a Gold member of the club!! :cool:


Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:59 pm
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
IN.


Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:45 pm
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Orphan

Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
Since I started the over New Moon club, I'm obviously in for this club as well :thumbsup:


Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:56 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
i'll never join.

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 4:14 am
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
Yeah Im in.

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 6:46 am
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
Gold members are LadiesMan217, Jiffy, neowolf, Harry Warden, The Magnus, and Madgez!

Silver members are those that join before Friday at noon!


Thu Dec 24, 2009 2:38 pm
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Veteran

Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
Please put me in the club. bl1222


Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:47 pm
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Speed Racer

Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2009 10:46 am
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
Looks like I'll be In on this one, unfortunately...


Thu Dec 24, 2009 5:42 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
Looks like this is heading for failure.
Pity the silver members because they saw the numbers, joined, and failed.
Actually this was made because of the first day of numbers so everyone fails.
Chipmunks are being exterminated.

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Fri Dec 25, 2009 7:36 pm
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Speed Racer

Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2009 10:46 am
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
I hope you're right and this club is headed for failure, even if I'm a member.


Fri Dec 25, 2009 7:42 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $200 m + Club
BK wrote:
Looks like this is heading for failure.
Pity the silver members because they saw the numbers, joined, and failed.
Actually this was made because of the first day of numbers so everyone fails.
Chipmunks are being exterminated.


This club was formed before the Wed numbers came in. I even called for the potential for $200 m + for Alvin last month.

Don't doubt those Chipmunks yet!


Fri Dec 25, 2009 8:02 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $250 m + Club
Well $200 m is definitely happening, now this is a $250 m + club. Alvin wins again!


Wed Dec 30, 2009 7:22 pm
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: Alvin and the Chipmunks $250 m + Club
Well this club started out as a $200 m + club, and Alvin passed $200 m this weekend! SUCCESS!

Though the club was upgraded to a $250 m club later on. That won't be happening, but it will certainly outgross the original film!


Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:16 pm
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