Rank/comment about which January/Feburary box office success (either opening or total) is most surprising.

For me it's Gran Torino, since it was the first of the bunch, everything afterwards conditioned us to not be as surprising.

blart, I still don't get it, Watched the film it blew chunks, bleh.

Taken.

Paul Bluart is sorta impressive too.

But Taken -- a movie that's been out online for a year, of a typically neglected genre, to be not only approaching $100m, but approaching $100m in flying colors, with AMAZING weekend drops that haven't been seen from any wide-release movie in...idk...forever?

Gran Torino is also impressive. It came out of nowhere, like a Borat or FH 9/11. But it's not as unusual as Taken. We can call it the Clint Eastwood version of American Gangster.

I voted Taken, for all the reasons da torri said.

Paul Blart, just ahead of Taken.

Gran Torino had Clint Eastwood, who we underestimated but whose bad-ass presence now makes its performance more reasonable.

Friday the 13th, I had only predicted to open to a bit less than it did.

Coraline is gonna make a lot more than I expected, but it isn't particularly surprising.

He's Just Not That Into You, see Coraline.

Paul Blart had no starpower (as far as I knew) and its trailer was utterly unfunny. I expected it to make less in total than it made in its opening weekend. And now it's gonna make 150m. Just completely out of nowhere. Taken is the same issue, except my predictions had been a bit higher and its total is gonna be a bit lower than PB.

Taken. Easily. Its been released everywhere and did just moderate business. To come out SB weekend and then go on to make not only $100m but substantially more via incredible holds - is nothing short of amazing.

Blart is a surprise offcourse, but kids/family films often breakout in Jan - see Snow Dogs, Kanagaroo Jack, etc But its gone well above the highest expectations. Amazing too.

Gran Torino's strength is impressive. Six months ago I would have said Changeling would have outgrossed it, but its bo has been breathtaking.

The others all overperformed but no real surprises really.

Actually Taken outperformed expectations in most markets it has been released so far.

Hey Lecter, I don't follow international box office really but if Taken were to do 125mil-ish in the US is there any chance it could break 200mil worldwide? I'm just curious.

That would actually make it a lock to break $200 million worldwide. It still has Germany and Japan ahead and without Germany/Japan, with $125 million in the States, it'll stand at $194 million worldwide, heh.

Thanks. I haven't seen it (I'll rent it one day) but I'm just glad Liam Neeson gets a huge hit like this under his belt that's all him.

It did about $7m here which is good, about the equivalent of $70m in the US. Still I expected the gross in the US to be around $50m at the most seeing that Euro/UK films tend to do better here than they do in the US.

Should ask this after they've had their full runs.
I mean say Coraline keeps increasing until Race to Witch Mountain?
Say Friday the 13th manages a 30% drop?
Say He's Just Not That Into You reaches 140m?
It's far too early-maybe Madea hits 45m OW?

I really can't choose, because for me overall everything is surprising. I know that's a bit of a copout, but we have yet to see a film that opened wide not make at least $10 m, and have a huge number of films open to $17 m or more. we've had breakout films before, but I don't recall a time period in all the years that I have tracked box office where everything has done decent or well.

I remember about 4 or 5 days before MLK weekend,everyone (here and elsewhere) were talking about MBV3D and Notorious, and a few mentions for Hotel For Dogs, and when Paul Blart was brought up I just heard BOMB! I went out on a limb about 5 days before it opened calling for 50m+. This was more than expected and had several people tell me it wouldn't touch that.
Paul Blart Mall Cop is easily the most impressive here, I was guessing higher than most and I was...what 100m low? This movie soared above and beyond expectations in every sense of the phrase.
Although, I also agree with BK, this thread is early, some of these movies are just getting going, like Coraline and F13. They could still surprise far more than they have.

A toss up between Paul Blart's opening weekend and Taken's legs. But I'll give it to Paul Blart because of it's shockingly high opening weekend, and legs.

Taken.

Taken with its great holds.

Easily Taken. Paul Blart was simply the result of the Dec.family films stinking., Taken on the other is gonna end up with a 5+ multiplier.

Taken because of it's great legs.

Normally I would have said Paul Blart, but I was looking at past MLK weekends, and a film like Snow Dogs would now adjust to nearly $105 m, but Blart's huge opening and legs were very surprising. But Taken is a mini-Sixth Sense at this point. Granted, it has had very generous circumstances for legs (first weekend was subdued from SB, so 2nd weekend drop was less, while its third weekend had Valentine's Day on Sat and a holiday Monday). If Taken somehow pulls a 25% drop or under next weekend, even with the inflated Valentine's Day, and inflated Sunday, then I certainly think its on its way to $200 m, but $140 m is still going to be huge for it, and would be a whopping multiplier of 5.67.

I think what is most surprising is that we have never had a January film do $100m+ (not including expanders) other than Star Wars (reissue) in 1997. And now - we have 2 films do it in the same month!!! And both will do it comfortably!

um, not to be rude, but 140m+ looks outside and it still needs great drops for that, its' only at 80m right now. 200m seems out of the question unless it's drop is in the single digits next weekend.

Lol! That's not being rude, its a box office forum. It's all about debate.

It would need a 5.08 multiplier for the rest of its run to do $140 m. I only threw out the $200 m figure as a condition if it miraculously pulled under 25% next weekend from an inflated Sat/Sun this weekend. After that it would need to be dropping 15% or less for the rest of its run.

I do think $140 m is reachable though. The last two weeks of February look to be quite slow, that it could certainly hold incredibly well.

200M is impossible any way you cut it. It's not even at 100m yet, 20m away and at 19m only weekend.