We have a very crowded may with 7 films potentially breaking out to over 100m+ and I can't see all of them making it there, something is gonna get left in the dust, so why not this?
Here's the lineup:
X-men: Wolverine- no matter what WOM on X3, or whatever else this is an X-Men movie, which means 150m+
Star Trek: Great trailer reactions, strong marketing, and a strong anticipation for a reboot, 120m+
Bruno: first big real comedy of the summer, Borat WOM, and love for SBC= 100m+ (although this is the movie that could miss out instead of A&D)
Natm2- I think this will tank, as I have been parading for a few weeks, but interest from the 1st should guarantee 100m+
Terminator- not only is this a Terminator movie but it has Christian Bale and looks awesome= 150m+
UP- to me, easily the strongest movie in may, Love for Pixar+intriguing premise+Wall-e Good will= 200m+

So there it is, all of these movies have their own advantages that give them a great shot at 100m+, is it possible to have seven blockbusters in may? Sure, why not? But usually when things get too crowded something misses out and while this definitely has a book fanbase, it does not have the support or controversey of DaVinci code, and has seen very little marketing thus far, (least of these 7 except for Bruno).

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Benjamin Milk

Bruno was pushed back two months.

I'm not comfortable betting against Angels and Demons. I think Star Trek and Museum and Terminator are all shakier bets.

I see this performing the worst of the bunch, but I still see it doing 100m+. I mean, it's not like DVC looked that good either, but that didn't stop it from opening to 80m.

then again - i'm completely sure that we won't have all seven of these movies do 100m, so something needs to fail. I'm just not sure what yet.

Not sure starring Christian Bale is a good thing anymore for Terminator.

As much as i'd like to say this will tank, the book is very popular and more often than not preferred by readers over DVC. So that alone should get it above $100m. It also has the weekend to itself plus its 2nd weekend is Memorial Day weekend so it will atleast make $100m and more likely flirt with $150m. And as yoshue said - its probably a surer bet than Star Trek and NATM at this stage.

Ron Howard + Tom Hanks = Angels and Demons' advantage.

With the exception of Pixar they're the safest bet to bet on especially during the summer. The only Tom Hanks film released in the summer over the past 20 years not to reach $100 million was The Terminal which still had a pretty damn good run (17/77 - 4.5 multiplier). He's seven for eight in the summer since Turner & Hooch.

As much as it'll drop off from Da Vinci it should still be good for $120 million. And I think the other five films are good for at least $100 million. All of them will end up cutting each others legs out from underneath one another, but they should still get to at least $100 million. Teens will rush out to see the three big May films on each of their opening weekends. Because of that, there's a chance none of them will have great legs. It's almost like '07 but on a much smaller scale. I'm kind of surprised one out of the trio of Wolverine, Star Trek and Terminator, hasn't moved into the slot the week after Land of the Lost. They'd at least have two weeks before Transformers.

I actually think at this point that Up and Land of the Lost are kind of sitting pretty. LotL has Up's second weekend it's opening weekend and then has two weeks without anything big opening before Transformers in it's third week. If kids like it, it could have some shelf life. And oddly enough, Angels & Demons might be the safest bet in May. If it's any good, it might have some legs if adults like it.

^You're right in the sense that it's a smaller repeat of 07.
However, seeing January and now February's start, can such films not co-exist? (If they're all good)

Wolverine has the advantage of a summer start and has at least an 85% chance of getting 100m.

Star Trek comes next and if the trailer is any indication, it could be spectacular, then again, it has to compete with the nerd factor associated with it, meaning it really has only a 50% chance of 100m.

Angels and Demons is sandwiched between everything and has to compete with DVCs terrible WOM which included Hanks most wooden performance, yet A&D is a better book and could still pull in some fans, it has about a 65% chance of getting 100m.

Terminator has Christian Bale, it's on Memorial weekend and is a sequel to a popular franchise, theoretically it looks as though nothing's wrong, so I'd say it has a 95% chance of 100m.

Night at the Museum 2 has its predecessors good WOM and opens on Memorial weekend too, it however has Up in its second weekend, followed by Land of the Lost in its third, not to mention it could suffer the winter to summer transition seen in Narnia last year, but its still a family flick and they tend to have decent legs at the very least so this also has about a 90% chance of 100m.

Lastly we have Pixar's Up and as it is Pixar its guaranteed 100m unless it is really, really shitty, which is highly unlikely and even then, it'd still get at least a 50m OW and a 2x multiplier to 100m.

The smaller films this year are worse than Jan/Feb films. I mean to ensure being NOT last of the year they need a 10.4m total. Ghost of GF's past looks good, but WTF is Battle for Terra?
Next Day Air, Wild Child and My Life in Ruins are definitely tanks from a mile away.

Bale is not a box office draw, and this has nothing to do with his rant. He is a solid performer, but he doesn't guarantee butts in seats.

Definitely NOT in.

Wolverine could OPEN close to 100M. Anything's possible, so I give it 99%
likelyhood of hitting 100M.

Star Trek has the least chance of hitting 100M. The last one made 43M. The
marketing has been solid, I'm just not sure it has the fanbase anymore to achieve
a huge gross. 60% chance of making it to 100M.

Angels and Demons, even if it takes a big hit from DVC's opening, should still open
with at least 50M. That's good enough for 100M+ total. 98% likelihood.

Terminator will be close to 100M after it's first 4 days. 99% likelihood.

Night at the Museum 2 should open around 40 or 50M, and summer will carry it
past 100M pretty easily. Up and LotL will hurt it though. 90% likelihood.

Up is a lock. I haven't wanted to see a Pixar movie this much since Finding Nemo.
99% likelihood.

But it does mean that a quality performance is likely, which in turn could mean that the movie will be of a higher quality than one would expect. It's not like this will have an inconsistent star who is known for one good movie or no good movies.

Dude, these were enough:

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=48053

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=46490

sorry forgot excel had one out there, but oh well.

No offense bro but one of those is your own thread...

true, I knew I had that but I didn't want to go find it and change it so I just started a new one instead, I know how lazy that sounds, but...
is there a faster way to find an old thread than sifting through all the old pages? Can you search it somewhere or something?

Angels and Demons could lose 59.4% of the audience of The Da Vinci Code, and it would still make it to $100 m. While the general feeling among mainstream moviegoers was dislike for The Da Vinci Code, having nothing else the weekend before Memorial weekend will only help it exceed expectations. Even from a $35 m opening, it'll probably still get to $100 m, just with the long weekend cushion and the fact that it is an adult demographic film.

There's a nifty little search button next to the login button.

Although I posted a 98% chance for A&D yesterday, I can't help but feel that it may be this year's Speed Racer. I'm quite sure WOM for DVC was poisonous? One of the worst films this decade.

I'm not sure it's WOM was poisonous. It was frontloaded, and faced tons of competition, yet it had a 2.8 multiplier, which isn't too bad. It didn't only appeal to adults, teens were also crazy over it. And I honestly haven't heard anything really negative outside of the internet.

That may be true, but what about Pink Panther 2? Pink Panther had a nearly 4 multiplier or something and PP2 now is suffering. Different audiences sure, but same claimed reception to respective audiences right?

DVC was one of its kind. The book is easily the most hyped book of the decade. That was the biggest factor behind its BO.

A&D is not even 1/10 of DVC when it comes to hype. It was published before DVC and did not even do well. Post DVC it did very well though not even close to A&D.

I think Ron Howard/Tom Hanks combo should help it a bit but I think it will just have a mediocre run compared to DVC. I think they should have released it during winter as they originally planned.

So you in?

Yeah...try Search with your name as the author...

30 milish opening with a long, slow crawl to past 100 mil...does Charlies Angels: Full Throttle ring any bells.

HP7 would take that title.

As a series HP has sold more than any other book. But if you take one book DVC sold the highest number. It had sold 60.5Million as of May 2006 and It was in Best seller lists for over 2 years. Plus the hype associated with the book was not there during release but just was a juggernaut.


I just finished reading A&D and I must say A&D has the same feel as DVC. It is a fast paced thriller with enough twist. Also looking at DVC performace OS, I dont see A&D losing too much ground there.