So we've had so many what went wrong threads, so if the early Christmas #'s are true, what went right for Valkyrie? This film had huge odds against it but could potentially be Tom Cruise's comeback film.

I think it looks really good. I guess other people do too.

It was well promoted as a thriller over last few weeks. I guess this was the best choice for action film fans.

Hopefully it does not drop too hard 2morow.

There was a LOT of advertising for this on Comedy Central, so I'm guessing marketing was mostly aimed at the male demo, a demo that's been fairly underserved since Quantum of Solace (With the exception of The Day the Earth Stood Still). I guess people have also slowly gotten over Cruise's personal antics since he's been largely under control since 2005.

well nothing says X-mas better than killing Hitler

X2

I can't wait to check it out.

Um, the studio spending 70M to market the film is what went right. The B-
yahoo grade is troubling though. Most likely the second most frontloaded of
the openers this weekend (ahead of Spirit).

It looked good, no one cares about Tom Cruise's "antics" from years ago (did they even care back then? M:I-3 and Lions for Lambs had other reasons for under-performances), lots of marketing.

I wouldn't be surprised if that B- rises in the coming days. There's only been 409 reviews so far.

Grades decrease more often than increase. We will see.

I think it was marketing.

That's true. But the sample is too small at this point. We'll have to see how the grade behaves as more reviews come in.

X3

i think our expectations were lowered by how unpopular Cruise has become and how war movies haven't done well recently, when in reality this movie was heavily (and well) marketed, and did a good job presenting itself as good adult entertainment.

I think Cruise saved his appeal with Tropic Thunder. That was his comeback movie.

From the crowd reports thread Valkyrie isn't getting very positive WOM.
So this may be too premature, but we'll see.

Or seen as having become...

Although in 2000 I'm sure this movie's gross would have been disappointing (unless legs are really good).

But so much has changed, you can't possibly compare. It's so much more difficult to get teens or people in their 20s who tend to go to comic book movies and others like that. That would be the difference for a movie like this between a successful gross and a major hit.

I find all this talk about "comeback" somewhat funny. The last time Cruise played a starring role in a movie, it made 134 million domestically and 397 million worldwide. The movie he did before that made 234 million domestically and 591 million worldwide.

...So where was the need for comeback? He did both of those two mentioned movies AFTER he supposedly lost his star status, and they didn't do too shabby...

Lions For Lambs was a low budget indie movie in which Cruise played a supporting role (even in the marketing he was 3rd billing). That was one of his Magnolia-type pet projects, and was never supposed to make big money anyway.

If someone is referring to the fact that he simply hasn't taken any big movie projects in a while, well, it's not the first time. He didn't do any big projects from 97 to 99, and still nobody talked about a "comeback" when M:I came out in 2000. He did have his first child in 2006, which is when his recent break started.

It'll stay the same or decrease - - some audience mambers seemed pretty disgruntled as they were leaving, and there were even about a dozen walk outs (out of a full house of 500) during the show...

I think the perception of cruise needing a comeback had a lot to do with just how low LFL grossed given the budget (I'm pretty sure it was a lot higher than Magnolia). Plus just how publicized MI3 was and its disappointment. More than anything it just coincided with the whole media storm, and I think many want that to make all the difference for a star.

I agree...I think this thread may be a bit premature. Low Audience grade + possible frontloadness could equal an ALI situation. Not ready to call this one till I see today's numbers.

Btw, a 75-100M budgeted film with an additional $70M in marketing really needs to do $100M+ to really not be considered a disappointment (unless it goes like gangbusters overseas). Also, Cruise, no matter the b.o., is getting some of the most scathing reviews of his career. While his name still carries weight and gets the curiosity factor up, I think people are seeing the movie more for the concept and thriller elements rather than for him.

Yes they did. Its just that he hasnt gone to the talk show circuit and make an ass of himself with that Ratatoulie ray-band pose

LFL was also the first release of the revived United Artists banner and a commercial flop. So it's not like everything was cool and there was no pressure for Valkyrie to perform well at the box office.

I agree. In 2000, Tom Cruise was box office gold and this would've done twice as well.

Twice? The only openings for Cruise coming near that were the MI films and War of The Worlds. (and maybe Interview adjusted) Pre public hoopla over Cruise and couch jumping films like Vanilla Sky and Last Samurai opening the same time of year, (and both those films were adult skewed R rated films) opened similarly. How is this film's opening not in line with most other non special effect/big action Cruise films? Is the subject matter and tone of Valkeryie considered more mainstream than Collateral? I don't think so.


Vanilla Sky
U.S. opening $25,015,518 12/14/01
U.S. $100,618,344
W.W. $203,388,341

The Last Samurai
U.S. opening $24,271,354 12/5/03
U.S. $111,127,263
W.W. $456,758,981

Collateral
U.S. opening $24,701,458 8/6/04
U.S. $101,005,703
W.W. $217,764,291


Even Minority Report directed by Speilburg with a bigger budget and more action opened to just $35,677,125 with a U.S. $132,072,926 in 2002. Cruise's non action films tend to have better legs than huge openings.

Yes his stock has been down, I think mostly shown by MI3 but even that wasn't a dud so much as a disappointment (and I think it didn't help that MI2 sucked) and even as much as a disappointment Lions for Lambs was it still made $63m WW on a $35m budget when other films about the war struggled far more. I'm not a big or even a medium fan but I think reports of his box office decline have been greatly exaggerated.


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/cha ... cruise.htm

12/25/08 Valkyrie UA $8,350,000 2,711 n/a 2,711
8/13/08 Tropic Thunder P/DW $110,461,307 3,473 $25,812,796 3,319
11/9/07 Lions for Lambs UA $15,000,115 2,216 $6,702,434 2,215
5/5/06 Mission: Impossible III Par. $134,029,801 4,059 $47,743,273 4,054
6/29/05 War of the Worlds Par. $234,280,354 3,910 $64,878,725 3,908
8/6/04 Collateral DW $101,005,703 3,205 $24,701,458 3,188
12/5/03 The Last Samurai WB $111,127,263 2,938 $24,271,354 2,908
7/26/02 Austin Powers in Goldmember
(Cameo) NL $213,307,889 3,613 $73,071,188 3,613
6/21/02 Minority Report Fox $132,072,926 3,001 $35,677,125 3,001
4/19/02 Space Station 3-D (IMAX)
(Narrator) Imax $77,155,526 64 $489,488 24
12/14/01 Vanilla Sky Par. $100,618,344 2,842 $25,015,518 2,742
5/24/00 Mission: Impossible II Par. $215,409,889 3,669 $57,845,297 3,653
12/17/99 Magnolia NL $22,455,976 1,086 $193,604 7
7/16/99 Eyes Wide Shut WB $55,691,208 2,483 $21,706,163 2,411
12/13/96 Jerry Maguire Sony $153,952,592 2,531 $17,084,296 2,531
5/22/96 Mission: Impossible Par. $180,981,856 3,012 $45,436,830 3,012
11/11/94 Interview with the Vampire WB $105,264,608 2,604 $36,389,705 2,604
7/2/93 The Firm Par. $158,348,367 2,393 $25,400,000 2,393
12/11/92 A Few Good Men Col. $141,340,178 2,201 $15,517,468 1,925
5/22/92 Far and Away Uni. $58,883,840 1,885 $10,194,520 1,583
6/29/90 Days of Thunder Par. $82,670,733 2,307 $15,490,445 2,307
12/22/89 Born on the Fourth of July Uni. $70,001,698 1,434 $172,021 5
12/16/88 Rain Man MGM $172,825,435 1,590 $7,005,719 1,248
7/29/88 Cocktail BV $78,222,753 1,462 $11,789,466 1,404
10/17/86 The Color of Money BV $52,293,982 1,205 $6,357,877 635
5/16/86 Top Gun Par. $176,786,701 1,531 $8,193,052 1,028
4/18/86 Legend Uni. $15,502,112 1,187 $4,261,154 1,187
10/21/83 All the Right Moves Fox $17,233,166 909 $1,625,486 442
8/5/83 Risky Business WB $63,541,777 1,137 $4,275,327 670
4/8/83 Losin' It Emb $1,246,141 180 $437,257 180
3/25/83 The Outsiders WB $25,697,647 1,002 $5,068,165 829
12/9/81 Taps Fox $35,856,053 792 $93,005 3
7/17/81 Endless Love Uni. $31,184,024 - $4,163,623 574

If someone thinks that LAST SAMURAI would still be a $111M grosser if released today, then I have some Lehmann Bros. stock to sell you...

I see the case you're making Volpe, and it could definitely turn out to be true and VALKYRIE makes $100M, but I think we're gonna have to look at adjusted figures now of those films. We're looking 30M+ openers for VANILLA, SAMURAI and close to that for COLLATERAL. MINORITY would be 40-45M+ as well. I don't see VALKYRIE getting more than high teens, possibly very low 20s, for the Fri. to Sun. period and definitely won't have the legs of these films.