I think District 9 left a solid amount of good will for this Neill Blomkamp follow-up to exceed Prometheus OW. Plus, it looks way cooler and fresher than the next two sci-fi offerings of this summer (After Earth and Pacific Rim).

So, who's with me?

Members:
2001
Rev
Price
MadGez
Biggestgeekever

Nah don't see it.

How about naming it: Elysium will outopen Prometheus?

Nah. I don't think it'll open above even Oblivion.

I don't see it right now, not with where the ad campaign stands at the moment. I am predicting an opening of around 35 to 40 million and stronger than usual legs for a summer action film.

I'll call your 51m and raise you 60 million OW

Yeah, it's not opening to $50m. Prometheus was Fox's big movie of last summer and the marketing was everywhere. The hype was big. Elysium can do District 9 and Oblivion numbers on opening weekend, but not much more than $40m.

If this does well I don't really think it'll be 'cause of District 9/people knowing who Blomkamp is. (unless they're advertising it as "from the makers of District 9?" idk)

edit: nvm, I just saw the poster and it does say District 9 Don't remember that from the trailers.

It does have potential, so I do not believe this club is absurd in any way. People love Matt Damon in action-hero roles (and he plays them fairly rarely), District 9 is extremely well regarded, the visual effects seem very striking, etc. Sony just needs to nail the second half of their advertising campaign.

I am not sure about that. They love him as Bourne, yes. But Green Zone didn't do well. I know it was a totally different movie, but the marketing for Green Zone certainly made it seem like a very action-y role for Damon. The audiences didn't turn up.

That said, I still think Elysium will at least outdo Oblivion.

Here's hoping for a great movie. If it opens to $51.06m, it will probably not be a great movie. So I'm thinking it will open more in the $37.054m range.

I don't think Elysium is going to open to even Oblivion numbers, and certainly not over 40M. It's box office will probably be somewhere in the vicinity of After Earth, but Pacific Rim will blow them both away, potential grossing more than the two of them combined.

I wanna see a bit more advertising first.

Hopefully it makes more than After Earth.

I'm out.

I'm giving the kiss of death to this club: IN.

This has potential IMO, but I'm not sure about a $50M opening anymore. The hype doesn't seem to be there just yet and this has A LOT of competition with 2 Guns coming out the week before and then the mid/late July lineup.

I just think it will be hard for this to breakout that big with so many male skewing action movies coming out in such short periods of time, but Matt Damon + Jodie Foster + District 9 goodwill should still allow a $35-$40M opening.

Im in.

This is basically the last big blockbuster of the summer and there is a strong chance it will be a good film.

In.

I actually think it could do a lot better (over Signs OW) if the marketing is there, considering how weak July looks outside of the 4th.

Iraq movie. Enough said.

All of these GREAT movies being mentioned is getting me excited for Elysium.

Good point raised here. There's really no mega blockbuster in the mid/late July spot like it used to be. Heck, I don't even see any effects-driven actioner breaking 125m+ after Pacific Rim (not even Wolverine) making the market pretty wide open for a potential breakout.

And let's not forget: District 9 was one of the best received sci-fi films of the past decade.

Damon factor won't hurt it too. Just imagine what D9 would have done had it starred a "known" lead actor.

This has a lot of potential. As many said D9 and Matt Damon are big factors working in its favor. Still though I don't think it will out open Prometheus. It will be close though.

If the club is closing then I am joining otherwise I will refer my judgement to a later point.

As much as you guys all say "goodwill from District 9", outside of it's theater performance it did horrible rental wise at my store when it came out, and it was about a 50/50 love/hate response. I think it has it's devoted fans (I'm one of them), but realistically it's not that much of a factor in the potential for Elysium. I'm definitely out, as I don't know if it can even hit 35M OW.