EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $14.75M - $3,588 PTA - $141.38M cume
2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $6.5M - $1,803 PTA - $6.5M cume
3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $6.25M - $1,944 PTA - $6.25M cume4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $2.61M - $955 PTA - $21.2M cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $1.98M - $755 PTA - $36.5M cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $1.32M- $558 PTA - $48.2M cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $1.23M - $547 PTA - $28.7M cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $525,000 - $305 PTA - $46.5M cume
9. Prom Night (Sony) - $490,000 - $334 PTA - $42.2M cume
10. Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $320,000 - $233 PTA - $415,000 cume
11. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $305,000 - $191 PTA - $43.2M cume
12. 21 (Sony) - $240,000 - $245 PTA - $79.8M cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) - $138,000 - $636 PTA - $1.8M cume
*Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $90,000 - $588 PTA - $495,000 cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $70,000 - $483 PTA - $1.1M cume
*Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $31,000 - $861 PTA - $104,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $25,000 - $1,667 PTA - $95,000 cume
*NEW – The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $18,927 - $2,103 PTA - $18,927 cume
*NEW – Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $11,736 - $1,304 PTA - $11,736 cume
*NEW – The Babysitters (Peace Arch) - $7,201 - $379 PTA - $7,201 cume
*Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) - $3,565 - $713 PTA - $27,000 cume
*NEW – Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $1,836 - $1,836 PTA - $1836 cume
*NEW – Surfwise (Magnolia) - $1,774 - $1,774 PTA - $1,774 cume
*NEW – America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $1,325 - $1,325 PTA - $1,325 cume
*NEW – The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) - $1,162 PTA - $1,162 PTA - $1,162 cume
*NEW – Noise (ThinkFilm) - $988 - $494 PTA - $988 cume

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalc ... offic.html

Darling Nikki has IRON MAN at $15m, VEGAS at $6.8m and SPEED RACER at $6.6m...

6.5?

The 1st Flop of the Summer is Speed Racer.

It's just too wacky for the mainstream.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAAHA!!

Gives me immense satisfaction when a a high profile WB film flops or bombs.

Ouch for Speed Racer. Could Iron Man fall below 50%?

come out from your hole excel.

On the plus side to this weekend, this Friday's top 10 is 24.83% higher than the same Friday from last year.

I think that the 2nd weekend of May may be the worst weekend of the summer outside of August to release a film. It has a VERY bad record of making hits! (6 for 28 wide releases over the past 11 years).

The 2nd weekend of May has a TERRIBLE box office history! In bold are the films that appear to have broken out or at least done solid business ($5,000 + avg). Here are the openers for the 2nd weekend of May:

1998:

2 N The Horse Whisperer BV $13,685,488 - 2,039 - $6,711 $13,685,488 - 1
3 N Quest for Camelot WB $6,041,602 - 3,107 - $1,944 $6,041,602 - 1

1999:

4 N Black Mask Art. $4,449,692 - 979 - $4,545 $4,449,692 - 1
5 N A Midsummer Night's Dream FoxS $4,285,620 - 1,080 - $3,968 $4,285,620 $11 1
7 N Trippin' Oct. $2,527,909 - 777 - $3,253 $3,154,641 - 1

2000:

2 N Battlefield Earth WB $11,548,898 - 3,307 - $3,492 $11,548,898 $73 1
6 N Center Stage Sony $4,604,621 - 1,506 - $3,057 $4,604,621 $29 1
8 N Screwed Uni. $3,342,085 - 1,759 - $1,899 $3,342,085 $10 1
10 N Held Up Trim. $1,911,007 - 688 - $2,777 $1,911,007 - 1

2001:

2 N A Knight's Tale Sony $16,511,391 - 2,980 - $5,540 $16,511,391 $65 1

2002:

2 N Unfaithful Fox $14,065,277 - 2,617 - $5,374 $14,118,338 $50 1
3 N The New Guy SonR $9,007,833 - 2,687 - $3,352 $9,007,833 $13 1

2003:

2 N Daddy Day Care SonR $27,623,580 - 3,370 - $8,196 $27,623,580 $60 1

2004:

1 N Troy WB $46,865,412 - 3,411 - $13,739 $46,865,412 $175 1

I don't count Troy as breaking out, even though it got a big average, as predictions were alot higher on this one than it did.

5 N Breakin' All the Rules SGem $5,088,577 - 1,318 - $3,860 $5,088,577 $10 1

2005:

1 N Monster-in-Law NL $23,105,133 - 3,424 +2,508 $6,747 $23,105,133 $43 1
2 N Kicking and Screaming Uni. $20,159,925 - 3,455 - $5,835 $20,159,925 $45 1
3 N Unleashed Rog. $10,900,901 - 1,957 - $5,570 $10,900,901 $45 1
10 N Mindhunters Dim. $1,911,358 - 1,040 - $1,837 $1,911,358 - 1

2006:

2 N Poseidon WB $22,155,410 - 3,555 - $6,232 $22,155,410 $160 1
4 N Just My Luck Fox $5,692,285 - 2,541 - $2,240 $5,692,285 - 1
13 N Goal! The Dream Begins BV $1,921,838 - 1,007 - $1,908 $1,921,838 - 1

2007:

2 N 28 Weeks Later FoxA $9,807,292 - 2,303 - $4,258 $9,807,292 - 1
3 N Georgia Rule Uni. $6,773,870 - 2,523 - $2,684 $6,773,870 - 1
5 N Delta Farce LGF $3,420,645 - 1,931 - $1,771 $3,420,645 - 1
12 N The Ex MGM/W $1,394,229 - 1,009 - $1,381 $1,394,229 - 1

2008:

Speed Racer $6.5 m
Vegas $6.25 m


Other than Daddy Day Care, the only movies that break out this weekend are those appealing heavily to females (understandable since Mother's Day is on Sunday). WB especially has had alot of trouble on this weekend, with Camelot, Battlefield Earth, Troy, Poseidon, and Speed Racer. Out of the past 11 2nd weekend of May's, WB has had a film underperform or flop on 5 of those...

^ good observations.

I've Been saying the Posiedon of 08 all year, quite satisfied. It looked like a funner Sky Captain, thats about it.

I actually liked it quite a bit. Shame it's not doing better. Doesn't even look like it's going to be particularly leggy what with the one-two punch of Narnia and Indy the next two weeks.

There you go. WB should have known better. Its the worst weekend of the summer. The only exception would be the last weekend of August that isnt Labour Day weekend. Other than that - only kids films or rom coms should open on this weekend.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/

According to MCN, FM overestimated IRON MAN by more than $2m...

If MCN is correct, that's not that great for Iron Man. It would make about $40-42m this weekend.

Great for What Happens in Vegas, and about expected for Speed Racer.

BOM has IRON MAN at $15.3m...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -09&p=.htm

I guess MCN's number was mistyped: $15.2m vs. $12.5m...

GFY!