HARRY POTTER 5: Order Of The Phoenix (INTL.)





Harry Potter 4: Goblet of Fire (INTL.) - viewtopic.php?t=13821&highlight=

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Potter is back in a big way this year, the 5th movie opens in a couple of weeks and the final book at about the same time. Now that the big three have made their splash (at least domestically), emerging from the shadows is the possibility of Potter taking out one of the Big 3 domestically and claiming the 2007 Worldwide crown. The marketing should kick in now if it hasn't so already, the biggest release for the rest of the year.

In 2005, Potter 4 returned the franchise to winning ways, becoming the 2nd largest of the Potter installments both domestically and worldwide. That year was red hot, receiving the final Star Wars epic and witnessed the hottest battle in December (Narnia vs. Kong) since 1997 (Titanic vs. Tomorrow Never Dies). Potter survived them all making $892.2m (currently the 9th largest of All-Time). 3 Potter films have now made more than $600m (HP1, HP2 and HP4) and the franchise is the undisputed champion overseas. It is now 2 and 2 worldwide, winning in 2001 (HP1) and 2005 (HP4), finishing 2nd in 2002 (HP2) behind TTT and also in 2004 (HP3) behind Shrek 2.

Now that Potter is back in Summer, will it suffer the same fate as HP3? For a start, it's not opening in June, tough month generally. But the competition is still there...some pretty big releases such as Ratatouille and Transformers lie in front. On the positive side, it should have the rest of July should be Potters and we all know how that helped the first two Pirate flicks. On the international front, Shrek 3 occupies late-June and Transformers surrounds Potter by dividing its release strategy into early-July and late-July. Should be an interesting battle, Shrek and Potter at it again, this time with a kinky robot in between. Nice.

The International market has changed dramatically in the year and half since Potter 4, we are definately seeing a major shift in the grosses of most blockbusters. This could only work in Potter 5's favour, its key strength and may well be the dividing factor between it and Pirates 3 worldwide.

Adapting to the conditions, Potter 5 will unspool in at least half of its international markets on the weekend of Jul 11th, and the rest a week latter (with some exceptions of course). This is undoubtedly the most aggressive release strategy for a Potter flick. The first Potter started in about 2 (UK/Taiwan), Potter 2 with 9, Potter 3 with 24 and Potter 4 with 16. Though despite this limited release, its opening weekend figures (eg HP3 at $113.51m) are among the highest of all-time. Spiderman 3 holds the record for the largest opening weekend (regardless of days), though as we know, Pirates 3 is really the stronger opener with $251m in 6-Days vs. $230.5m for Spiderman 3. Without the help of Japan and Russia (among others), it's unlikely that Potter 5 beat these opening figures....but its opening should surpass Da Vinci Code's $155m.

Stay tuned to see who wins, Potter 5 or Pirates 3. Place your bets. (BTW this will be the final INTL. thread for Summer).

Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $300m + $635m = $935m

Titanic - $600,788,188 + $1,244,246,000 = $1,845,034,188
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - $377,027,325 + $741,861,654 = $1,118,888,979
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - $423,315,812 + $642,344,000 = $1,065,659,812
Harry Potter 1: SS - $317,575,550 + $658,900,000 = $976,475,550
Lord of the Rings: TTT - $341,786,758 + $584,500,642 = $926,287,400
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: AWE - $300m + $625m = $925m est.
Star Wars 1: PM - $431,088,301 + $493,229,257 = $924,317,558
Shrek 2 - $441,226,247 + $479,439,411 = $920,665,658
Jurassic Park 1 - $357,067,947 + $557,623,171 = $914,691,118
Spiderman 3 - $340m + $555m = $895m est.
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $290,013,036 + $602,200,000 = $892,213,036
Harry Potter 2: COS - $261,988,482 + $614,700,000 = $876,688,482
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - $314,776,170 + $556,592,194 = $871,368,364
Finding Nemo - $339,714,978 + $524,911,000 = $864,625,978
Star Wars 3: ROTS - $380,270,577 + $469,727,028 = $849,997,605
Shrek The Third - $325m + $510m = $835m est.
Spiderman 1 - $403,706,375 + $418,002,176 = $821,708,551
Harry Potter 3: POA - $249,541,069 + $540,250,000 = $789,791,069

It won't make 300m in US but it will make around 630m $ OS. Overall I predict 910m $ WW.

What? I need my drugs What about THE SIMPSONS? You don't think that will be a huge worldwide überblockbuster?

Yeah from what I hear, it is pretty big all around the world.

He is only doing films that can do like 750+ WW.

I have no idea if Potter can beat Pirates, it'll be pretty close I'm sure. Pirates will pass 900 for sure now, and likely fall inbetween 925-950.

Every Potter film has increased from the one before it in the Latin American markets. While none of them are huge, it can obviously help. However, every Potter film has decreased since the first in Japan. Potter 4 didn't even hit 100M there. If it can increase from Potter 4 in Japan significantly, and get Potter 3-Potter 2 numbers there, and maintain Potter 4 numbers elsewhere, then 900 will happen. But I don't know if it can get that extra 25-50 or so to be number 1 WW.

I think it can happen. I see Pirates making 915-920 WW and Potter making about 930. I think it will explode in Europe because of how down the dollar is there.

Oh no it isn't You better make one for The Simpsons

Sorry, please see my explain for the Shrek scenario. I don't like Simpsons and nor do I have interest in tracking it intimately. Though by all means, nothing is stopping you from creating one

I nomite Box for the job of The Simpsons thread

Yes, there must be one created for The Simpsons which could easily top $350-400 million overseas.

Unlikely. I don't think TSM can reach those levels. Too much competition.

I'm thinking 5m admissions in Germany (SIMPSONS)

I see around 4-4.5 million admissions in Germany. It should be huge overall in Europe, though and in many Asian countries as well.

I'm not really sure. It has too much competition. HP5, Ratatouille, BU, TF.

I hope you're wrong, i don't see it passing $300m overseas, it's results in the US will tell all though....

So what are we saying, Simpsons will become the 3rd largest grossing pic this year behind Potter and Pirates

It opens 2 weeks after HP5, and just 1 week ahead of Transformers and Fanastic Four. August 2007 in Germany is looking like a red hot month, plenty of competition there.

What are your projections for Harry Potter?

Japan is strange indeed. There was a sizeable drop from HP4 and the rest. HP3 did extremely well considering the competititon that year and still finished with more than $130m. HP4 on the other hand, had little worthy competition in December 2005 but still couldn't gross more than $100m, coming in at $91.5m. Though there could be something wrong with Japan that month.....Memoirs of a Geisha and King Kong both flopped for some weird reason.

Or perhaps there's something about the direction the movies have taken, i.e. getting darker and less fantasy or child like. The market likes cute and cudly.

Not sure where HP5 will go in Japan really, it's 50-50 chance of beating HP4's $91.5m.....still making up my mind...

The marketplace is filled with much more anticipated films. I don't think $300m is possible for TSM. $250m tops.

The thing is, Simpsons arrives in a pretty tough time, Potter 5 might be the last pic before people say they've had enough of movies for summer and start to become more selective of what they see....

True. Ratatouille also opens in many countries. BU will also pose a problem. Slight, but still problem.

Ratatouille also occupies the same months as Simpsons, late July and August....there'll be a lot of competition between the two. And kids may already be fatigued after seeing Shrek 3, and then Transfomrers and then Harry Potter....

Kids are never fatigued going to the movies... It's like saying kids are fatigued watching tv...

Ok, there parents then after spending so much on family movie tickets....not cheap....

New 'Potter' draws mature rating in Oz

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111796 ... id=13&cs=1

Roadshow will not challenge decision

By MICHAELA BOLANDSYDNEY -- The latest chapter in Harry Potter's journey to adulthood has attracted a mature rating Down Under, effectively ensuring that many youngsters will not be able to see it.
The Office of Film and Literature Classification, whose recommendations carry quite a bit of weight, has suggested that only mature auds see "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," to be released July 11 by Roadshow Films.

Shingle will not challenge the decision despite successfully appealing an initial mature rating for "The Prisoner of Azkaban" in 2004. An appeal against an M for "The Goblet of Fire" in 2005 failed.

The first two "Potter" films received PG ratings in Oz.

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BTW - Our M (or recommended for Mature audiences), is probably equivalent to everyone's PG-13.

Parents are though... Tickets' price?