It's probably early, but hey, it's fun to call things before they materialize

I see Spiderman 3 getting low to mid 130 mil this weekend. Now the WOM is looking like the worst for a superhero film since B&R, which practically set heavy drop due to bad WOM records at the time. As a frontloaded film with huge competition coming up anyways, the legs are not going to be good, at all. I could see a multiplier in the realm of 2.1-2.2, giving it a landing in the 280-300 mil range.

That leaves Shrek 3 and Pirates 3. I think there's a very good chance that at least one of them falters. If one displeases audiences, competition and natural frontloadedness will eat it up. In particular Shrek 3 could be hurt by the quality being bad.

Hell, there could be no 300 mil films this year. Wouldn't that be a lesson to the studios who made the decision to pack all their guns in May and leave winter with nothing uber.

Finally, Order all of a sudden has a possibility to be a top 2 film of the summer, if not the top with Potter mega hype. The one thing holding it back before was that Spider was apparantley guaranteed 330 mil+, but with the bad quality, it's up in the air. Interesting stuff indeed.

Huh???


CATWOMAN???

How is the WOM bad. Its decent, B - B+ and some bad ones obviously. No, I think all 3 can go over 300.. but who knows which will be the highest.

I don't think SM3 will. It still has a 160m weekend IMO. Maybe only 145m-150, but that shouldn't stop it. A multiplier under 2.0 could be possible though if WOM is really that bad. I think Shrek 3 is the likely one. Pirates 3 will have at least 380m.

Well, ok. Worst WOM for a superhero film people actually cared about, that excludes Elektra as well.

Oooooooverraction.

And even if in the extremely unlikely event that nothing passes $300M this summer, National Treasure 2 will. If MTF can come within $20M of the mark, NT2 can clear it, methinks.

But still, you're getting insanely ahead of yourself.

Silly Shack.

Plus, we don't really know how the general audiences feel about it. And if this site was a good indicator of word-of-mouth, CoM would have made $300 million, not like $35 million.

It really depends at this point on how the general reaction is to a film. Yes, a lot of forums are tearing Spidey 3 apart, but that doesn't always indicate that the general audience thinks it's a disaster. We won't really know until next Friday.

At yahoo it has the hardcore fans voting. Just about every blockbuster will have an A- at this point. A "B" is terrible and likely means a final of C+ or worse. That is Hulk/Godzilla/B&R territory.

You should know better, Shack.

Just remember I said it first.

I agree with some of the other thoughts in this thread. To call it a WOM disaster on the levels of B&R would be a little bit premature at this point. I think mixed or lukewarm would be better adjectives. A 'B' grade for this film is certainly a step down from SM2 but no where close to Catwoman or B&R.

Nope worse case for Spiderman would be low 300 range. If it opens 140-150 there is no way it doesn't make 300. At worse it will have the multiplyer that X3 had.

Does Yahoo give a grade breakdown too? Because isn't it a possibility that the 'anti-fan' such as hardcore fans of Pirates would be giving it all F's?

There are a few anti-fans for every movie, but not nearly enough. There are over 3000 votes, so the haters can't have much of an effect. That's why blockbusters with huge numbers of votes always start out will great grades at yahoo unless WOM sucks. If you look through the written reviews you would usually see rows of As at this point from the fans with a few F's between. There are many B's, C's, and many more D's and F's then usual for SM3.

Well it seems right now that even X-3 had a better grade at yahoo than SM3. Could we be expecting like a 65+% drop next week?

So basically you're saying that a C+/C is very likely to be the final grade for this movie right?

I wager to say that X-3 had alot more anti-fans voting against it than SM3 since X-3 because of the whole issue of Brett Ratner directing it. I dont see how SM3 can have that many anti-fans unless the hardcore Pirates fans are lowering its grade down

I think a long term grade of B- is most likely for SM3. Can't see it approaching Hulk's C level, which is a league in its own.

I saw The Hulk opening weekend (and sort of hated it) and I remember how hostile the crowd was towards it.

Oh, silly Hulk.

it'll get over 300

just

If by "just" you mean clear it by 300 then I agree!

Yeah, I actually doubt it will be any better than C+ after 10 days.

How many hardcore pirates fans are there on the internet really? lol

I think most of them are teenage girls.

never underestimate teenage girls!!

i'm serious about it!! its the one fucking demographic everyone forgets about!! its completely untapped!! all they make are bad films for them. and when that one good film comes out, we all wonder who the hell it happened. well i've got 2 words for you

TEENAGE GIRLS!!!