It has great legs with the best increase this week among films in wide release and might get to 55m as it is. It will need a best picture nomination to get further. NATM and CW look headed for multipliers near 7.5. TBD needs only about 62.5m to match that. That would be all the more impressive since family films benefit the most from the holidays and NATM and CW were released closer to the holidays.

Im pretty sure the queen is having the best run of the year. For wider releases its doing good, thankfully so, its a very good film, and did cost 100 million to make. Hopefully it wins some awards

I don't think you can really compare to The Queen.

In any case, among multipliers I of course meant wide releases.

It's definitley not getting nominated for Best Picture, and it's not headed to 55 mil without boost... it made 5 mil over the 4-day frame to get to 35 mil, that extra 20 past that is going to be tough as nails.

Also Little Miss Sunshine's wide multiplier was over 10.

I'm betting it gets nominated for Best Picture. Where was Crash last year? Or Gladiator in 2000? I don't remember anyone predicting Ray and finding Neverland to get nominated in 2003. I think mainstream WOM for Babel and Dreamgirls is too weak. Letters, U93, and The Queen might all make it, but I'm going to bet against it.

As for LMS it had about a 100% increase in it's TC the following week so you can't count that as it's first weekend. Use the weekend after it was in 1400 and it's a bit over 6, which is still great.

A lot of people were predicting Ray, Finding Neverland, Gladiator and Crash

Not what I was reading. At least until the guild voting began. When is that?

Before that I don't think any of the analysis done before is useful. I'd need some statistical analysis to prove otherwise, but I knew something like A History of Violence would never be nominated, and I bet Babel won't be. B- at yahoo? haha. Hollywood might not be completely mainstream, but more so than the critics or the random early oscar picks. Those 4 movies among others proves it.

And LMS is a lock for a BP nom I think.

The Departed and The Queen are locks, Dreamgirls is almost there.

For the last two spots: LMS, United 93, Letters from Iwo Jima...

The only movie with an RT score as mediocre as Blood Diamond to get nominated was Chocolat and that one had the Weinsteins behind it.

The Departed is a lock to win Best Picture.

I bet Dreamgirls doesn't get in.

I'm sure Gladiator was lower before it won Best Picture. Those reviews don't make it sound like a best picture winner. Crash isn't that high either. Critics don't have a single vote at the academy.

I remember I checked in that section last year and everyone was so surprised when Crash started getting stuff from the guilds in Jan. heh

Wait, what are we talking about here? Blood Diamond? (!?)

Yeah, Blood Diamond has no chance at a Best Picture nom