Hmm.

Apocalypto - 17
The Holiday - 16
Blood Diamond - 13
Unaccompanied Minors - 7

1 The Holiday $22.3 m
2 Blood Diamond $13.1 m
3 Accompanied Minors $11.3 m
4 Apocalypto $8.5 m

Who exactly does Apocalypto appeal to? Oh right, NOBODY.

The Holiday - $15M
The Blood Diamond - $13M
Unaccompanied Minors - $7M
Apocalypto - $6M

ghdfd

Eh, well, it seems to be getting pretty good reviews and the movie is supposed to actually be good.

Not that, you know, I want to see it, but still...

It's definitely the big wild card of the week. The Holiday should probably produce identical opening weekend numbers to Something's Gotta Give, Blood Diamond looks like the $13-15M range based on theater count, Unaccompanied Minors shouldn't be more than a blip, etc.

Apocalypto 12 million
Blood Diamond 16 million
The Holiday 13 million
Unaccompanied Minor 5 million

I think the predictions are going to be all over the place, Im unsure on all of them
Apocalypto is going to be a killer because of the Mel Gibson fiasco but Ive heard alot of great reviews and alot of positive prescreenings from those disgusted with Mel's behavior but saying how good the movie was and also how bloody it was too

The Holiday - $19.0m
Blood Diamond - $15.2m
Apocalypto - $9.7m
Unaccompanied Minors - $5.3m

The Holiday - $16 million
Blood Diamond - $11 million
Apocalypto - $10 million
Unaccompanied Minors - $7 million

Apocalypto - 24 million
The Holiday - 15 mil.
Blood Diamond - 14 million
Unaccompanied Minors - 4 million

That's pretty damn funny.

I'll be shocked if this movie makes $14 million next weekend.

This is a DVD movie. With tickets at $10 a pop, people aren't going to lay down that kind of money to see the kind of movie they advertised.

Reviews aren't suddenly going to make people see a movie they can't even understand the plot of from a 2.5 minute trailer. Do YOU know what it's about without reading reviews? The Passion was at least helped by being based on the most recognized story of all time.

I could see The Holiday jumping up to high $20's too. MIM would adjust to $21 m now, and that was anchored on J. Lopez. This has Cameron Diaz, Jack Black, Jude Law, and Kate Winslet. With decent reviews, it could breakout.

Apocalypto:13
The Holiday:18
Blood Diamond:11
Unaccompanied Minors:6

The Holiday - 22m
Apocalypto- 13.5m
Blood Diamond - 12.3m
Unaccompanied Minors - 7.2m

-Happy Feet - 14.7m
-Casino Royal - 9.4m
-Deja Vu - 5.7m
-Nativity Story - 5.6m
-Deck the Halls - 4.1m
-The Santa Clause 3 - 3.6m

The problem being 3 out of 4 of those are varying degrees of box office poison and Jack Black just got off of a huge
bomb and The Holiday is not exactly the kind of film his core audience goes for.

I don't see it doing "bad" but I don't see it as an out of nowhere smash (which would be a 25+ opening) either.

1 The Holiday $16.2 m
2 Blood Diamond $14.8 m
3 Accompanied Minors $9.7 m
4 Apocalypto $13.1 m

Close openings of the medium variety. Good enough for eacg to springboard into solid grosses however I get the feeling atleast one of these will flop.

The Holiday was totally cute and adorable, by the way, although I kind of doubt that would affect predictions.

December 8, 2006 /// Predictions.

The Holiday: $18.7 million
Blood Diamond: $13.1 million
Apocalypto: $11.4 million
Unaccompanied Minors: $6.3 million

Blood Diamond was fantastic. Easily one of the best films of the year. DiCaprio almost never picks bad movies to star in so I should have known. It deserves to be very successful and he and Honsou deserve Oscar nominations.

I dunno... The Holiday has a better line-up, from a date-movie POV, and the added boost of being Christmas themed. I could see it winning the weekend.

The Holiday - $24 million
Blood Diamond - $9 million
Apocalypto - $8 million
Unaccompanied Minors - WTF is this?

I whole-heartedly agree with everything you said.

The Holiday 17.0 million
Apocalypto 12.0 million
Blood Diamond 11.0 million
Unaccompanied Minor 4.0 million

My Early Predictions:

New:

The Holiday- $16.3 million
Apocalypto- $14.5 million
Unaccompanied Minors- $10.8 million
Blood Diamond- $10.5 million

For now, I've got The Holiday as the weekend winner. It's been a while since the last romantic comedy, and each of the four headlining stars has at least some drawing power. It's the big chick flick and date movie of the month (and of the season), and Nancy Meyers has delivered two previous hits in the same genre. Though Holiday may not be as fresh as her previous outings, it will click with women, which is what it needs to do. However, it is somewhat troubling that Sony is only putting it in 2,200+ theatres, as the sneak previews went well last night.

Apocalypto is a big question mark. Granted, it's going to beat my initial expectations (which were that it would flop), but it's tough to see just where it will end up over the weekend. It's depending heavily upon two things: Mel Gibson's name, and the action angle. The former may or may not be a good thing, as Gibson has a reputation as a quality director, but also has the great sting over his headline-making anti-Semitic comments during a DUI in July. As far as action goes, advertisements have tried to make it look like a big, wild action movie, and have done a good job trying to keep hidden the fact that it is subtitled. Even though it has a cast of unknowns, advertising has been solid enough that it could certainly find an audience. This is a movie that could either break out and stun the entire industry or flop massively. With excellent review out of the gate, I'm going with the former- to a certain extent.

Yes, Unaccompanied Minors looks horrible, but there's only one demographic that the film matters to: Kids. And this is the kind of movie that pre-teens are likely to eat up. It's been getting rather solid advertising. It should have some surprise strength, but weak reviews and the presence of Happy Feet should stop it from being the top family pick. Still, it should debut over $10 million and play well with kids.

I know I have Blood Diamond rather low, but reviews aren't solid, and some of the demand has been burnt off by the sneak previews. The theatre count (1,800+) is very low for a movie like this.

BLOOD DIAMOND - $5.5M

Looks terrible!

The Holiday - 22m
Apocalypto - 14m
Blood Diamond - 11.5m