I don't really follow box office so much anymore, and I'm sure somebody here has already mentioned this somewhere, but I found it interesting that next May hosts sequels to the last three film franchises to top $400,000,000 domestically.

[table][col color=#C0C0C0]May 2007[/table]
May 4th (Friday)
[table][row color=#A52A2A][col color=#A52A2A]Film Title[col color=#A52A2A]Studio/Distributer[col color=#A52A2A]Genre[col color=#A52A2A]Rating[col color=#A52A2A]Release
[row][col]No Reservations[col]Warner Bros.[col][col][col]Wide
[row][col]Spider-Man 3[col]Sony[col]Action/Adventure[col][col]Wide[/table]
May 11th (Friday)
[table][row color=#A52A2A][col color=#A52A2A]Film Title[col color=#A52A2A]Studio/Distributer[col color=#A52A2A]Genre[col color=#A52A2A]Rating[col color=#A52A2A]Release
[row][col]28 Weeks Later[col]20th Century Fox[col]Horror[col][col]Wide[/table]
May 18th (Friday)
[table][row color=#A52A2A][col color=#A52A2A]Film Title[col color=#A52A2A]Studio/Distributer[col color=#A52A2A]Genre[col color=#A52A2A]Rating[col color=#A52A2A]Release
[row][col]1408[col]Dimension[col]Horror[col][col]Wide
[row][col]Shrek the Third[col]Dreamworks[col]Animation[col]G[col]Wide[/table]
May 25th (Friday)
[table][row color=#A52A2A][col color=#A52A2A]Film Title[col color=#A52A2A]Studio/Distributer[col color=#A52A2A]Genre[col color=#A52A2A]Rating[col color=#A52A2A]Release
[row][col]Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End[col]Buena Vista[col]Action/Adventure[col][col]Wide[/table]

should be an interesting battle between shrek and potc. i dont care for any of them though.

wtf?! the aggregate weekend records are going to be shattered.

well, one of them will certainly disappoint...

How are theaters going to have enough screens for all of these wide releases? It's not as though Spidey would disappear to make room for the next one.....

Yeah, good question. I didn't even think of that. Each of those movies are of the 4000+ variety.

It definitely looks to be a frontloaded summer season next year, too.

All I know is that next Memorial Day will probably be the biggest weekend ever.

I can't see how anything much could even play counterprogramming to 3 powerhouses like that, although somebody might want to try to position a chick flick or adult type drama for the May 11th weekend. If nobody does, all the better for Spidey's chances to be king of the summer.

400m+ for all three

Memorial Day Weekend 2007:

(3-Day)
PotC 3- $120 mil
Shrek 3- $70 mil
Spiderman 3- $22 mil
28 Weeks Later- $8 mil

4 movie total of- $220 mil

(4-Day)
PotC 3- $150 mil
Shrek 3- $90 mil
Spiderman 3- $30 mil
28 Weeks Later- $10 mil

4 movie total of- $280 mil

Cool, didn't know they're making a sequel to 28 Days Later. Definitely looking forward to that.

I think Pirates will get the short of the stick, saying it now.

IMO Shrek will take it, but we'll see.

I'm still positive that at least one of them is going to move. If they stay tight, then they will cannibilize each other, and they will ALL ultimately make less.

My vote is that Pirates should move to its usual July slot. Viewers would like that kind of consistency, just like they had for LotR. And it would give Gore Verbinski another month to finish up CGI or reshoots, if he needs it. The scheduling just seems to tight.

and go up against transformers!?!?! hA!

I agree that one of them should move...as for Pirates, I guess it makes sense even though it will face stronger competition than this summer....or don't move, so the other two won't gross as much either, heh.

Exactly! They are no match for the robots in disguise

Ive said this before that one of them should move and if Shrek doesnt move to Nov/Dec - then Pirates should move to its usueal July spot and Potter move to Nov/Dec.

However, as they stand now - I can see Shrek winning out, with the other two very close behind - all in the $360-$390m range.

Spidey 3 is sitting pretty where it is. Its highly aticipated so the opening weekend will be HUGE and it has a 2nd weekend all to itself. It will then drop susbstantially when the other two open - but by then its made the bulk of its money. Personally ,I want this to be No.1 - but most likely it wont be. One negative is that it will benefit least from School being out - but the two weeks alone should help make up for most of that. Its best chance of No.1 is if Pirates and Shrek slaughter each other - which is possible.

Opening $138m, Total $375m

Shrek 3 is smack bang in the middle of the three. However, coming two weeks after Spidey enables it to open as the previous one did - but only higher as it will open on Friday and not Wednesday. However, it will have the lowest opening of the three as the rush out factor isnt as strong as it is for Spidey and Pirates and with kids in School its Friday wont be as strong. However, it will take a bigger hit than Shrek 2 did over Memorial Day but bounce back nicely after that. Remember that even Harry Potter couldnt put a major dent in Shrek 2's run. Pirates will be more formidable in that the previous sequel made over $400m and had the widest demographic appeal since..well Shrek 2!

Opening $125m, Total $394m

Pirates 3 has the tough position of opening 3rd to two of the biggest franchises ever and coming out less than a year after the previous effort. Back to the Future III and Matrix Revolutions werent successful doing this, but Pirates will act more of a LOTR and conclude the trilogy strongly. However, It will have to contend with Shrek's 2nd which is no easy task when you have similar demographics. Pirates skews slightly older and more female - so both should co-exist - but to what extend will these two hurt each other - is one of 2007's great mysteries. Of all the films - this one should benefit most from summer no school days and be strong through June atleast until Ratatouillie/Transformers.

Opening $118m (3 day), $145m (4day), Total $370m

atleast until Fantastic four 2.

Because something is telling me that it will surprise. Ya ya i know lot of people on this board will disagree BUT just wait for the TEASER trailer.

SILVER SURFER sfx and some other special effects in the movie will be done by WETA which is brilliant.

I can see FF4 2 doing atleast $130m. I meant Pirates will still be a major force even if it gets knocked off No.1. Im hoping for the best with FF4 2 - espeically with the Silver Surfer in it!

Yes, definitely, Fantastic Four will surprise. The first one did better than the majority expected this far from the release date, and so will this one.

None of them will pass $400 million with them just hurting each other.

all under predicted:

Spidey3 - 150m | 405m
Shrek The Third - 140m | 490m
Pirates 3 | 165m | 500m

All under-predicted.

Spidey3: 225/756
Shrek3: 195/810
PotC3: 240/989

that would be so kewl

BJ's overpredicting things? Who'd a thunk it?