2000, and 2005 were disappointing years. 2001 and 2005 were transition years, when the market really changed, while 2002 was a very very strong year led by some high profile films, and I see the same thing shaping up for 2007.

Here are some of the biggies:

February (Details)
• Rocky Balboa (SonR) - 2/9
Ghost Rider

May (Details)
• Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - 5/4
• Shrek 3 (DW) - 5/18
• Used Guys (Fox) - 5/25 - Jim Carrey/Ben Stiller/Jay Roach directing (Austin Powers)

June
Surf's Up (CGI animated)
HP5

July (Details)
• Fantastic Four 2 (Fox) - 7/4
• The Transformers (DW) - 7/4

August
Rush Hour 3 (TBA, but likely will come out in Aug)

November (Details)
• Bee Movie (DW) - 11/2 (Jerry Seinfeld CGI pic)
• Beowolf (Par.) - 11/21 (Similar to the Polar Express)

December
Narnia: Prince Caspian

2007 TBA:

Pirates of the Carribean 2
Indiana Jones 4
Ratouille (Pixar)
Wonder Women
Halo
James Cameron's B. Angel


It already seems like there are 8 movies that will do $200 m:

Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - 5/4 ($400 m possible)
Shrek 3 (DW) - 5/18 ($400 m possible)
HP5
Rush Hour 3 (TBA, but likely will come out in Aug)
Narnia: Prince Caspian
Pirates of the Carribean 2 ($300 m + possible)
Indiana Jones 4
Ratouille (Pixar)

How do you see this turning out, and does this not look like the year that could possibly push the industry past $10 billion?

It's POTC3 so it really depends on how the second performs and how it's WOM is.

wayyy to early to tell...

Early predictions (yes it may be too early, but the fun of predicting is predicting this early and comparing down the line and seeing how you did)!

February (Details)
• Rocky Balboa (SonR) - 2/9 $30 m/$115 m

May (Details)
• Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - 5/4 $118 m/$375 m
• Shrek 3 (DW) - 5/18 $111 m/$415 m
• Used Guys (Fox) - 5/25 - Jim Carrey/Ben Stiller/Jay Roach directing (Austin Powers) $78 m (4day)/$235 m (Bruce Almighty did $86 m over the 4 day long weekend in 2003, this will be 4 years later)

June
HP5 $96 m/$254 m

July (Details)
• Fantastic Four 2 (Fox) - 7/4 $37 m/$125 m
• The Transformers (DW) - 7/4 $39 m/$105 m

August
Rush Hour 3 (TBA, but likely will come out in Aug) $75 m/$255 m

November (Details)
• Bee Movie (DW) - 11/2 (Jerry Seinfeld CGI pic) $31 m/$175 m

December
Narnia: Prince Caspian $75 m/$260 m

2007 TBA:

Pirates of the Carribean 3 $95 m/$295 m (Hard to tell right now, but I'll say this gross is coming off of POTC 2 doing $110 m/$380 m)
Indiana Jones 4 $90 m/$305 m (If it comes out)
Ratouille (Pixar) $66 m/$251 m (This will be coming off a slightly disappointing Cars, so it'll still do solid, but underperform a bit)

Rocky VI: 25/60
Ghost Rider: 30/75
Spider-Man 3: 125/375
Shrek 3: 115/400
Used Guys: 65/230
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: 120/300
Fantastic Four 2: 45/115
Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 90/270
Rush Hour 3: 75/210
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian: 75/300

It'll be a huuuuuuge year.

Are we sure that HP5 is coming out in June '07?

Joy

I think Narnia's opening is being a bit underestimated here. Like it or not, the first had great WOM. And this isn't HP, where it's mostly just the fanbase coming out for it. Now that people know what the series is, and now they know that they lovveeddd it, it'll be really big. Possibly 100 mil+ opening weekend big, IMO.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix will be 100% robust

Opening Wknd: 124m | Fri: 52.46m / Sat: 40.92m -22% / Sun: 30.68m -25%

Domestic Total: 306m (should easily have the worst legs of the franchise)

It will be huge!! Bigger than 2002!!

I'll put my predix up later but dont forget also released in 07 are:

The Bourne Ultimatum
1000BC (Big Emmirich stone age tentpole)
Indy 4 (slight possibility)

Shrek 3 - 125m | 425m
Pirates 3 - 165m | 420m
Spiderman 3 - 142m | 400m
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - 86m | 350m
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - 124m | 306m
Battle Angel - 50m | 285m
Used Guys - 80m (3-day) | 260m
Rush Hour 3 - 85m | 256m
Ratouille - 60m | 250m
Indiana Jones 4 - 65m | 230m
National Treasure 2 - 55m | 210m
The Bourne Ultimate - 65m | 200m

12m films over 200m.

Rocky Balboa - 25/70
Ghost Rider - 35/90
Spider-Man 3 - 120/380
Shrek 3 - 110/400
Used Guys - 65/240
Fantastic Four 2 - 65/190
The Transformers - 40/120
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 - 95/280
Rush Hour 3 - 75/230
Bee Movie - 60/240
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - 85/320

TBA '07
10,000 B.C. - 55/170
Battle Angel - 40/180
The Bourne Ultimatum - 60/190
Halo - 45/140
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - 95/260 (with a November release)
Indiana Jones IV - 75/280
Land of the Lost - 35/90
National Treasure 2 - 55/200
Ratatouille - 50/220

Shrek 3 - $401m
Spider-Man 3 - $390m
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $303m
Indiana Jones IV - $301m
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - $271m
Used Guys - $259m
The Transformers - $257m
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 - $240m
Ratatouille - $233m
Rush Hour 3 - $191m
Bee Movie - $188m
The Bourne Ultimatum - $181m
Battle Angel - $169m
10,000 B.C - $158m
National Treasure 2 - $152m
Fantastic Four 2 - $133m
Beowolf - $107m
Surf's Up - $103m
Ghost Rider - $101m
Halo -$93m
Rocky Balboa - $76m

Um, what's Ratatouille, and why are people predicting $200M+ for it?

It's a pixar movie........ 'nuff said

I dont know though, it's about a rat. I dont think Cars or Ratolosdgfsdtsg will get much more then 200m, if even. I mean Cars? Kids wont be THAT big on it and a movie about a rat? Well hopefully they're quality stuff, which is what matters. Either way though these concepts are just not nearly as interesting as their other films.

Disney has just added Ratatoullie to it current Pixar distribution list. At this stage before Cars release and before it gets a release date - its hard to predict it.

Pirates of the Carribean 2 - 170m/515m - Depends on the reaction to POTC2, although I'd guess it will be fantastic allowing this one to earn just about as much.
Spider-Man 3 - 162m/415m
Shrek 3 - 108m/390m
Narnia: Prince Caspian - 355m; opening over 100m unless it's late December.
HP5 - 130m/320m - WOM was easily the best for HP4.
National Treasure 2 - 100m/310m
Ratatouille - 65m/265m - Depends largely on the date though; I'm assuming June with this prediction.
Bee Movie - 58m/236m
Indiana Jones 4 - 75m/235m
The Transformers - 83m/217m
Surf's Up - 50m/200m
The Bourne Ultimatum - 62m/190m
Rush Hour 3 - 66m/190m
Used Guys - 55m/185m
Halo - 62m/158m
The Golden Compass - 40m/150m
Battle Angel - 48m/131m
Fantastic Four 2 - 47m/121m
Wonder Women - 35m/90m
I Am Legend - 85m
Ghost Rider - 30m/72m
Spy Hunter - 26m/70m
Beowolf - 17m/65m
Next - 65m
Resident Evil 4 - 55m - Will likely be delayed, but CS already has it listed for 2007 and it's already in the works. I'm guessing the reaction the the second sequel will be similar to RE2.
The Blood Diamond - 53m - My most anticipated as of now.
10,000 B.C - 20m/52m - If historical epics can't do well, I don't think this will.
300 - 15m/34m
Tripoli - 30m - I don't think it will be better then KOH.


We will see more franchise films then summer 2003. I think the big budget original movies will mostly bomb.

http://www.comingsoon.net/moviereleases/jun07.php

You really think treasure 2 will make over 300m? I dont even think it'll make as much as the original. One of those movies that just came out at the right time.

It had great WOM. The legs were fantastic, and it was the top rental of the year with some of the most impressive DVD sales. It appeals to all demographics, so there is a lot of room for the fanbase to expand. People always underestimated this one because it wasn't the type of movie to appeal to people on movie message boards. I think the sequel is a lock for at least 270m or so.

Well lets see it's release date, but either way thats a very drastic jump for any sequel. Dont know about it being the biggest rental, depends where you get the info from I guess, VB does have it as the biggest rental and gets its info from a place called Rentrak's. IMDb has some different.

I mean yeah wom was good ( Yahoo - B IMDb - 6.8 is decent ) and had great holds, but again it came out at the right time, not much else to see. Had a second week drop of around 8%, then fell 40% for the next two weeks then had it's 30% drops from then on out. I just cant see it being THAT big, almost to the point of being impossible imo.

That B at Yahoo BTW is as close to being a B+ as possible. It's 20th of the year with MOF at 19 having a B+. So, it's the highest ranked film of the ~50 2004 movies with a B. That includes movies like I, Robot, Troy, Collateral, Kill Bill 2, Friday Night Lights etc. Most of the ones ahead of it were oscar movies, had big fanbases, or were smaller and didn't have a diverse audience rate it and bring the grade down. Among films without those advantages it's 5th behind only The Incredibles, The Notebook, Ladder 49, and Man On Fire.

It has the Shrek effect IMO. It appeals to family, young, and old audiences. It appeals to those who like comedies, thrillers, or action flicks. It pretty much has everything, which will allow it to reach those heights.

I guess its reasonable to assume the next F4 will make less than the first one. I would wait to see actual footage from the Transformers set to either put it above 200 million or under 100 million. The CGI is extremely important for Transformers and its reaction to see it in the make it or break it category.

I dont know about Rush Hour 3 if it would make 200 million. Jackie is in dire need of a hit and Tucker has been absent for so long, maybe if X-3 is successful that they will use Ratner's name to draw in people. I do hope they find a decent villian for the film like the rumored Stephen Segal one.

Other than that I can only see Spiderman 3, Shrek 3 and Indiana Jones passing the 300 million mark. Chronicles and Potter I think would most likely hit the 250 million mark and Pirates 3 success depends on how well Pirates 2 is received because hopefully it doesnt repeat another Matrix 3 or BTTF3. There definately would be alot more movies hitting 200 million, maybe 12

The Rush Hour films have just been so well received. The same arguments came up with Rush Hour 2, with Tucker literally doing nothing in between. The 2nd one opened to $67.4 m, and had a multiplier of 3.36 ($226 m total), which is very good considering the huge opening right in the summer. Adjusted for inflation, with say 3% increases for 2006, and 2007, Rush Hour 2 would adjust to $80.85 m/$271.3 m. It might have been a while, so some people forget, but with a whole bunch of other films expected to make it to the top 3 spots for the summer of 2001, Rush Hour 2 made it to the runner up spot, beating Mummy2, PH, Jurassic Park III, Planet of the Apes, Tomb Raider, and AI. People didn't expect Rush Hour 2 at all to do as well as it did, beating some of those films. But the franchise is very, very well liked by audiences.

National Treasure will not make $100M opening weekend. I could see an opening in the $60-80M range, but it's not an event film that will have people rushing opening weekend.

Can we officially label DP07 the king of high predictions?