Weekend Estimates (Pirates 2: $35.05 million)
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm Posts: 10266 Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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 Weekend Estimates (Pirates 2: $35.05 million)
http://www.entdata.com/charts/
Pirates 2 - $35.05 million
Monster House - $23.00 million
Lady in the Water - $18.21 million
You, Me and Dupree - $12.79 million
Little Man - $11.00 million
Clerks II - $9.63 million
My Super Ex-Girlfriend - $8.70 million
Superman Returns - $7.46 million
The Devil Wears Prada - $7.42 million
Cars - $4.91 million
BOM (same as Neilson EDI)
1 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $35,049,000 -43.8% 4,133 - $8,480 $321,733,000
2 - Monster House Sony $23,000,000 - 3,553 +2,851 $6,473 $23,000,000 - 1
3 - Lady in the Water WB $18,210,000 - 3,235 - $5,629 $18,210,000 - 1
4 - You, Me and Dupree Uni. $12,787,000 -40.6% 3,134 +3 $4,080 $45,318,000 $54 2
5 - Little Man SonR $11,000,000 -49.1% 2,537 +4 $4,335 $40,611,000 $64 2
6 - Clerks II MGM $9,625,000 - 2,150 - $4,476 $9,625,000 $5 1
7 - My Super Ex-Girlfriend Fox $8,700,000 - 2,702 - $3,219 $8,700,000 - 1
8 - Superman Returns WB $7,460,000 -39.3% 2,826 -939 $2,639 $178,427,000 $260 4
9 - The Devil Wears Prada Fox $7,425,000 -28.5% 2,248 -562 $3,302 $97,571,000 $35 4
10 - Cars BV $4,910,000 -37.4% 2,410 -593 $2,037 $229,449,000 $120 7
PEACE, Mike.
Last edited by MikeQ. on Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:43 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:32 pm |
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Squee
Squee
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm Posts: 13270 Location: Yuppieville
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Ummm... you ok Mike?
_________________Setting most people on fire is wrong.Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee." 
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:32 pm |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm Posts: 10266 Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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Squee wrote: Ummm... you ok Mike?
The printable chart on their site was different from their flash chart. Heh.
PEACE, Mike.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:33 pm |
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Jeff 42
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:44 pm Posts: 763
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With Pirates estimated at a $321.7m total and down 44% from last weekend, does anyone still want to say it's not a lock for $400m?
_________________ My top 5 of '05:
1. Revenge of the Sith (A+)
2. Batman Begins (A)
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (A-)
4. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (A-)
5. Sin City (A-)
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:37 pm |
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Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990
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Jeff 42 wrote: With Pirates estimated at a $321.7m total and down 44% from last weekend, does anyone still want to say it's not a lock for $400m?
Em, well, 
_________________In order of preference: Christian, Argos MadGez wrote: Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation. My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:40 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am Posts: 12119 Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Jeff 42 wrote: With Pirates estimated at a $321.7m total and down 44% from last weekend, does anyone still want to say it's not a lock for $400m?
Do I have to mean it if I say it?
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:43 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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it need 78-79 million more and it will make another 32-34 million from Mon-to next sunday.
It will need 49-47 million after its 4th weekend.
It will pull of 400 million unless it dives a lot like 60% in its 4-6th weekend.
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:44 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table
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 Re: Weekend Estimates (Neilson EDI)
MikeQ. wrote: Superman Returns - $7.46 million The Devil Wears Prada - $7.42 million
That's BS! Prada took top spot over Supes on friday and Saturday, and I see no chance of a romcom (and one being better received) making less than an adult action movie (that wasn't so well received) on a Sunday. Supes number is being fudged. Prada outgrossed it for sure.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:45 pm |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm Posts: 10266 Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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 Re: Weekend Estimates (Neilson EDI)
dolcevita wrote: MikeQ. wrote: Superman Returns - $7.46 million The Devil Wears Prada - $7.42 million That's BS! Prada took top spot over Supes on friday and Saturday, and I see no chance of a romcom (and one being better received) making less than an adult action movie (that wasn't so well received) on a Sunday. Supes number is being fudged. Prada outgrossed it for sure.
Oh boy, here we go again....
PEACE, Mike.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:46 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am Posts: 12119 Location: Adrift in L.A.
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People who think Superman's number is being fudged are wrong. If this was a #1 vs. #2 situation, sure. But you're talking about the eighth and ninth spots in the top ten. Nobody cares, and no entertainment columns/shows are going to pick up on it.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:47 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table
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 Re: Weekend Estimates (Neilson EDI)
MikeQ. wrote: Oh boy, here we go again....
PEACE, Mike.
Shut up and let me pretend like I know what I'm saying!!!!!! 
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:48 pm |
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deathawk
Madoshi
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro
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 Re: Weekend Estimates (Neilson EDI)
dolcevita wrote: MikeQ. wrote: Superman Returns - $7.46 million The Devil Wears Prada - $7.42 million That's BS! Prada took top spot over Supes on friday and Saturday, and I see no chance of a romcom (and one being better received) making less than an adult action movie (that wasn't so well received) on a Sunday. Supes number is being fudged. Prada outgrossed it for sure.
At this point either those Saturday figures from SBD are wrong or else these estimates are too low. These are not the only two that don't seem to add up.
I really wish Mojo would get around to posting some numbers so I at least can get a better sense of which it is. I am thinking it may actually be SBD that is wrong. The 50% increase for Pirates, while welcome, does seem a bit out there.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:48 pm |
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Heinrich Himmler
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 5:17 pm Posts: 2716 Location: Berlin, Germania
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its superman vs. prada? did i miss something?
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:48 pm |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm Posts: 10266 Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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For all I know, these Neilson EDI estimates could be "off". Maybe BOM will show differently, so you could be right in a way dolce. These are just estimates, afterall. Estimates vary across different sources, I think.
We also are unsure of whether SBD is being accurate or not either, so the daily numbers may not seem to correspond, but we just don't know yet. Maybe BOM will be different than both of them (SBD and Neilson EDI).
PEACE, Mike.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:50 pm |
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android
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:44 am Posts: 2913 Location: Portugal
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(about Superman vs. Prada)
this is becoming way too funny...? who cares (besides BKB, of course), really? 
_________________
Last edited by android on Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:51 pm |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
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MikeQ. wrote: For all I know, these Neilson EDI estimates could be "off". Maybe BOM will show differently, so you could be right in a way dolce. These are just estimates, afterall. Estimates vary across different sources, I think.
We also are unsure of whether SBD is being accurate or not either, so the daily numbers may not seem to correspond, but we just don't know yet. Maybe BOM will be different than both of them (SBD and Neilson EDI).
PEACE, Mike.
They're directly from the studios, I believe. And studios often inflate/deflate their numbers for whatever reason.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:52 pm |
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Fulleyes
Aspiring Director
Joined: Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:49 pm Posts: 48 Location: North Carolina
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They are saying a 39% drop on Sunday for Monster House? That seems very high to me. All these numbers seem a little screwed.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:52 pm |
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Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990
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Fulleyes wrote: They are saying a 39% drop on Sunday for Monster House? That seems very high to me. All these numbers seem a little screwed.
Welcome to KJ! 
_________________In order of preference: Christian, Argos MadGez wrote: Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation. My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:56 pm |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm Posts: 10266 Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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Kenspy wrote: MikeQ. wrote: For all I know, these Neilson EDI estimates could be "off". Maybe BOM will show differently, so you could be right in a way dolce. These are just estimates, afterall. Estimates vary across different sources, I think.
We also are unsure of whether SBD is being accurate or not either, so the daily numbers may not seem to correspond, but we just don't know yet. Maybe BOM will be different than both of them (SBD and Neilson EDI).
PEACE, Mike. They're directly from the studios, I believe. And studios often inflate/deflate their numbers for whatever reason.
Hmm, I always thought that different sources had different estimates (actuals were always the same, but estimates could vary), simply because they are estimates. I guess we'll see when BOM's numbers come out. If they're the same as EDI, then you're right.
PEACE, Mike.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:56 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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Solid drop for Cars considering the strong competition from Monster House. Monster House could have pulled $30 m + 2 years ago, but cg animation is oversaturated now, and Barnyard, and Ant Bully will feel it even more. If Cars didn't have to face three back to back cg animated films, it would have had a better chance at $250 m, but it'll still get past $240 m.
Great for Prada. Under a 30% drop for the weekend. $130 m is still a possibility, but it'll likely get to close to $125 m or so.
Solid hold for Superman (39%). With 900 theaters lost, Imax has definitely helped this film immensely, and chances for $200 m are definitely on the rise again, but Superman needs to keep up nice holds.
Poor Super Ex GF, there was just way too much competition for it with Prada and Dupree and a host of other comedies.
Solid number for Clerks II. It's already tripled the total gross of Clerks 1 in its opening weekend.
Little Man had a decent hold. So Little Man will be heading for a $60 m + total, something that Raging Bull, and a lot of other films haven't gotten to.  This film didn't need to have such a high budget, but I think it will be a big dvd rental, so it'll be more than profitable.
Solid for Dupree. I definitely did not expect it to do well ow, nor total wise.
Terrible for Lady In The Water. It had a better multiplier than The Village with 2.65, but not that great either.
Solid for Monster House. But its definitely feeling the brunt of cg animation dilution.
FANTASTIC hold for POTC 2. 43.8% drop with 4 openers in its third weekend. It is now the 16th biggest film ever, third biggest Disney film ever, and their biggest live action film ever. It also outdid POTC 1 this weekend, and is also the fastest film ever to $300 m (16 days, beating SW by 1 day).
Also, assuming that the dailies have the same drop as this weekend (43.8%)POTC 2 with _ drops for the rest of its run would get to:
65% drops: $365.1 m
60% drops: $371.6 m
55% drops: $379.3 m
50% drops: $388.6 m
45% drops: $399.9 m
40% drops: $414.1 m
35% drops: $432.3 m
30% drops: $456.5 m
Considering a drop of 43.8% against 4 openers, still in its 3rd weekend, I think we could expect multiple weekends with drops under than in the future. That would put it close to $425-435 m levels. But, with a Labor Day bump up, and Disney's eagerness I think to have their film outgross a Dreamworks film, I wouldn't be surprised with them pushing hard to get past Shrek 2, if they are at $437-$438 m or so. But the film would need worse than 45% drops for the rest of its run, to not get to $400 m, and with the Labor Day bump up, that's probably closer to 46-47% drops. If its 3rd weekend drop is 43.8% with 4 openers, I don't see how from this point on, we'll only get 50% + drops, which even with those types of drops, it would get to low $390's anyhow.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:00 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32578 Location: the last free city
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 Re: Weekend Estimates (Neilson EDI)
MikeQ. wrote: Superman Returns - $7.46 million The Devil Wears Prada - $7.42 million
too close for comfort.
_________________ Is it 2028 yet?
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:00 pm |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
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 Re: Weekend Estimates (Neilson EDI)
revolutions wrote: MikeQ. wrote: Superman Returns - $7.46 million The Devil Wears Prada - $7.42 million too close for comfort.
Hey you already got great news this week. That sequel is going to be a huge success with those villains. Too bad it's 3 years away 
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:02 pm |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
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Alright just got way different Saturday numbers from Reel Source:
Pirates - 14.7
Monster House - 8.7
Lady in the Water - 6.4
You, Me, Dupree - 5.1
Little Man - 4.4
Clerks II - 3.2
Super Ex - 3.3
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:08 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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Oh! And I didn't even mention that Disney can probably squeeze an addition $3-5 m of so of money out of POTC 2 by doing a re-releasing it later, with a POTC 3 trailer.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:08 pm |
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paper
Artie the One-Man Party
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm Posts: 4632
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Superman was practically sold out in a 196 theater I went to last night...Lots of rain/hot weather helps.
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Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:10 pm |
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