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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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Those are actually quite reasonable predictions, but Da Vinci Code will rank a lot higher. They were wise to not include Lady In The Water or Poseidon.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 7:53 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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Magnus101 wrote: Though I should point out that Primere Magazine is usually way off.
They had 250m for SHrek 2 & 300m for SM3. 180m for Nemo and 350m for Matrix Reloaded. And they predicted Madagascar would be the no. 2 film of the summer last year(it wasn't even in the top 5)
I know those seem like they underpredicted, but they were pretty in line for expectations. There were people at the time of Shrek 2's release that thought it would struggle to get past the first, Spidy was expected at close to $350 m or so, so $300 m wasn't that off, and Nemo was also underpredicted quite a bit by most, with very few thinking it could take the summer. Matrix 2 was also expected to do $300 m +, so even though they were off, they seem to be a good gauge of expectations of box office watchers, but Da Vinci Code they are definitely off on. The rest are reasonable.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 8:02 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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Magnus101 wrote: O wrote: Those are actually quite reasonable predictions, but Da Vinci Code will rank a lot higher. They were wise to not include Lady In The Water or Poseidon. Are you kidding me? They are even worse than David Poland. At least David had the knowledge to know that these days a summer produces at least one film that grosses close to 350m. And out of all the blockbusters, they predict MI3 to actually preform along what everyone is expecting. They under-predict all the other blockbusters except for MI3, the one blockbuster that has the most potential to dissapoint than all the other ones.
Well they aren't close to what I'd predict, but given what they've got, I'm making the point that they're reasonable. Da Vinci Code and POTC will probably be much higher, but these predictions aren't horrendous.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 8:05 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40591
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No, these actually aren't so bad. I don't agree on a couple like MI:3 and Da Vinci, but they're not flat out retarded like some of Poland's.
I wanna see Travers' picks.  He was unbelievably accurate last year, he even got Wedding Crashers as top 3.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 8:11 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23385 Location: Melbourne Australia
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These are actually decent predictions for Premiere - they have had far worse ones in the past - ie. ID4 - $100m.
Id say they are low on DaVinci and Click - but otherwise nothing shocking.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 8:58 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Losers under predicted ever single film 
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:28 pm |
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RB652
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:23 pm Posts: 403 Location: New York City
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POTC2 300m. Underpredicted. --Agree. it should do about 325-350 million
SR 230m. Underpredcited--------Disagree, I think this will do over 200 million but around 215 million or x2 numbers
Cars 225m. Kind of underpredicted- I actually think this is close. maybe around 240 million max
X3. Underpredicted---------------Agree- It should 230 million-250 million
MI3. Close to over-predicted but I'll give it that its a good predict
OTH. Overpredicted kind of.
DVC. UNderpredicted a lot-----Agree. 250 million finish
Click. a bit overpreidcted but its def. possible
Miami VIce. Again, a bit overpredicted but its def. possible
You, Me, and Dupree. Probably the most accurate predict in the whole top 10.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:57 pm |
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Tuukka
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:35 am Posts: 1830 Location: Helsinki, Finland
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These are all pretty reasonable, IMHO. Much better than Poland's predictions.
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Sat Apr 15, 2006 9:39 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32628 Location: the last free city
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01 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men's Chest [300] - About right
02 Superman Returns [230] - way,way,way under predicted
03 Cars [225] - a little over predicted
04 X-Men 3: The Last Stand [220] - about right
05 Mission: Impossible 3 [210] - about right
06 Over The Hedge [180] - about right
07 The Da Vinci Code [170] - about right
08 Click [150] - a little under predicted
09 Miami Vice [120] - about right
10 You, Me, and Dupree [110] - overpredicted
_________________ Is it 2028 yet?
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Sat Apr 15, 2006 10:55 am |
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Groucho
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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Pirates will be #1 this summer, followed by Cars. So sayeth me.
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Sat Apr 15, 2006 1:48 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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revolutions wrote: 01 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men's Chest [300] - About right 02 Superman Returns [230] - way,way,way under predicted 03 Cars [225] - a little over predicted 04 X-Men 3: The Last Stand [220] - about right 05 Mission: Impossible 3 [210] - about right 06 Over The Hedge [180] - about right 07 The Da Vinci Code [170] - about right 08 Click [150] - a little under predicted 09 Miami Vice [120] - about right 10 You, Me, and Dupree [110] - overpredicted
Are you going to cry when Pirates OWNs up on Sups 
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Sat Apr 15, 2006 5:08 pm |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm Posts: 5868
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O wrote: Magnus101 wrote: Though I should point out that Primere Magazine is usually way off.
They had 250m for SHrek 2 & 300m for SM3. 180m for Nemo and 350m for Matrix Reloaded. And they predicted Madagascar would be the no. 2 film of the summer last year(it wasn't even in the top 5) I know those seem like they underpredicted, but they were pretty in line for expectations. There were people at the time of Shrek 2's release that thought it would struggle to get past the first, Spidy was expected at close to $350 m or so, so $300 m wasn't that off, and Nemo was also underpredicted quite a bit by most, with very few thinking it could take the summer. Matrix 2 was also expected to do $300 m +, so even though they were off, they seem to be a good gauge of expectations of box office watchers, but Da Vinci Code they are definitely off on. The rest are reasonable.
Agreed. It's stupid to look back at massive breakout hits like Shrek and Nemo, or massively disappointing films like Reloaded, and make fun of the "outrageous" predictions people made.
The list is reasonable. I don't agree with many of the numbers, but it's a reasonable list with reasonable numbers. The summer could very well turn out this way. Except for Da Vinci code. There's no way that movie is under 200.
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Sat Apr 15, 2006 7:55 pm |
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