You know the drill....

Fun with Dick and Jane (5-day) - $41.5 million
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (5-day) - $27.8 million
Munich - $9.7 million
Memoirs of a Geisha - $8.6 million
Rumor has It (1-day) - $6.5 million
The Producers - $5.9 million

Cheaper by the Dozen surprises and takes the 5-day with $54.1m.

This is a really, really tricky weekend.

Fun with Dick and Jane (5-Day) - $32 million
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (5-Day) - $31 million
Munich (3-Day) - $10 million
Memoirs of a Geisha (3-Day) - $9 million
Rumor Has It (1-Day) - $6 million
The Ringer (3-Day) - $6 million
Wolf Creek (1-Day) - $2.5 million
The Producers (1-Day) - $1 million

***MY EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK'S NEW RELEASES***

CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN 2 - 42.7 MILLION (3-Day)/60.7 MILLION (5-Day)
FUN WITH DICK AND JANE - 37.8 MILLION (3-Day)/55.9 MILLION (5-Day)
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA - 7 MILLION
RUMOR HAS IT - 7 MILLION (1-Day)
MUNICH - 6.3 MILLION
THE RINGER - 6.2 MILLION
WOLF CREEK - 2.6 MILLION (1-Day)
THE PRODUCERS - 2.5 MILLION (1-Day)


Yeah, I agree Libs, it is. I hate predicting these holiday weekends, especially Christmas when theaters close early Christmas Eve.

Yeah, this is going to be incredibly tricky. My work holiday has both Friday and Monday off, so both Friday and Sunday will be high, but Saturday will be quite low with all the theaters closing early on Christmas Eve. It's going to be as "V" shape as we're going to see for a weekend.

24m-26m for Narnia

30m+ for Kong

Two things that scare me:
-I don't think awareness is high enough for Dick and Jane
-Cheaper by the Dozen is bound to succeed seeing that it's Christmas and Steve Martin is in it with cute kids

I have a bad feeling Dick and Jane gets drilled by critics as well

Critics reviews for this will mean exactly jack. Meet the Fockers was 36% at RT and that movie made $279M.

Fun with Dick and Jane (5-Day) - $38 million
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (5-Day) - $32 million
Munich (3-Day) - $9 million
Memoirs of the Geisha (3-Day) - $8 million
Rumor Has It (1-Day) - $5 million
Wolf Creek (1-Day) - $2 million
The Producers (1-Day) - $1 million

What I got so far:

Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (5-Day) - $28 - 30 million
Fun with Dick and Jane (5-Day) - $20 - 22 million
Memoirs of a Geisha (3-Day) - $8 million
Munich (3-Day) - $7 million
Rumor Has It (1-Day) - $5.5 million
The Ringer (3-Day) - $3.3 million
Wolf Creek (1-Day) - $2.8 million
The Producers (1-Day) - $1.2 million

Kong wins the 3-day weekend with around $27 - 28 million.

The thing to remember is that the first Cheaper opened in the weekend *after* Christmas, which is always crazy busy...this one is opening before Christmas when people are finishing school/work, travelling, and Christmas Day isn't a great day for family films. WIth that in mind, I think it will make less opening weekend and ultimately, less in total, than the original movie.

Fun with Dick and Jane is going to hit by the remake backlash regardless of Jim Carrey (who's basically doing his normal schtick).

Munich should do well despite a low theatre count (500-600)...Memoirs will start losing business in the major cities and this will be its last good weekend before Rumor has It and Family Stone eat up all its business.

for those that follow limited releases, can you guys comment on the prospects for BBM? I think it's staying at 69 until January 6th. What would the drops be if you look at trends from other limited releases. Please do NOT factor in the subject. Pretend it's a girl and guy.

You're wrong, it actually opened Christmas day.


And Sam, I doubt it will be adding many more theaters next weekend and that's fine. It should hold pretty well next weekend, though with all of the new movies it obviously won't be in the top 10, or even top 14.

>>You're wrong, it actually opened Christmas day.<<

I meant that it's first weekend (the one where it made $28 million) was after Christmas (which was on a Thursday). I think it won't be able to do as well opening in the week before Christmas because people are generally busy and will wait until after Christmas to see movies.

Ahh, it's the weekend of death.

BOM updated Brokeback Mountain's estimated count next week to 120+.

You know what scares me the most? It's that if Cheaper by the Dozen 2 is a big success, they'll come up with the 3rd movie

They should make the next 12 movies in the series all at once...

my whole chain is not closing early xmas eve since its a sat..only thing we are canceling are the midnights

Does anyone realize it is a four day holiday weekend?

No One is predciting it

Thanks for the info, Animosity. That's helpful. I still expect Saturday gross to be lower than both Friday and Sunday because most people don't go out on Christmas Eve, but having theaters open leaves the option open and just makes it more unpredictable.

Fockers benefitted from great WOM after MTP.

I'm going to go with 2.4 Million next weekend then (depending on the final theater count), it would have been more than this weekend's gross except the gross for Saturday will be smaller because theaters close early so I'm going with around what it did this weekend.

The trailer helped Fockers, I think.

I remember not liking the trailer at all. It didn't show any of the funny scenes of the film, but once I saw the movie, I thought it was hilarious. I think that happened with a lot of people.

Fun with Dick and Jane - 29m 5-day, 19m 3-day, 36m 6-day
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 - 34m 5-day, 22m 3-day, 43m 6-day
Munich - 7.1m 3-day, 9.7m 4-day
Memoirs of a Geisha - 10.7m 3-day, 14.5m 4-day
Rumor Has It - 6m 1-day, 12m 2-day
The Ringer - 4.5m 3-day, 6m 4-day
Wolf Creek - 5m 1-day, 9m 2-day
The Producers - $680,000 1-day, 1.4m 2-day

King Kong - 30m 3-day, 41m 4-day
Narnia - 16m 3-day, 22.5m 4-day