It's looking like all three blockbusters this winter are going to wind up short of 300 million.

HP4 opened great but burned off as expected, taking in just around 20 million this weekend. With Narnia stomping down, HP4 will probably lose at least half of the screens. Expect sharp dropoffs the next two weekends, then a slight uptick for the end of the year, despite even more competition from Cheaper by the Dozen 2 and Fun with Dick and Jane.
This ain't gonna do much more than 280 million.

Narnia is poised to open HUGE. Churches are supporting it, fans of the book are supporting, it's gonna have a HUGE opening in line with the Two Towers methinks. However, Kong should definitely kill its legs from under, and family movie after family movie is going to be coming out after that, so don't expect Narnia to top 300 million so easily. I see it opening 70 million and have a good 4 multiplier. 280 million again.

Kong, I definitely see hype for Kong, but the hype may not be as far reaching as LOTR. It's definitely got this website's demographic by the balls, but it's really not a standard epic movie, so it may turn off some viewers. It's like Jurassic Park trying to be Titanic, uuuuh. So I expect a similar opening to Narnia, with similar legs. Narnia will inhibit Kong from opening with record-breaking numbers, but they will probably stil do very well together for the rest of the year. I see an 85 million 5-day and a 280 million total. Not too shabby.

So does anybody fit into this category? The just shy of studios pushing it to 300 million club? hehe

AWESOME!!!

another Kong/Narnia thread

Meh, Cant goin this club.

Narnias headed for a massive 300m+ total and Potter 4 still ahs a shot the ape lost its chance some time ago but it still ahs a shot at lighting up the BO with Narnia.

Imagine it, TW films making 300m+ comming out only 5 days apart, it would be awesome then 3 300m smashes all comming out within a month of each other, it would be unheard of, and most likely untopable ever again

yup, Narnias exclusive crushing of the Ape will be broadcast everywhere

Im hoping Potter will cross the 300 line - though it looks like $285m at this stage.

Narnia I see opening big and having good legs - still say $300m

Now Kong - I can see opening huge - I get better vibes by the day but i think it will fall short of $300m - maybe $260-$280m

Aren't the legs for december openers usually better than for most other months? I thought you guys had some box office rule of thumb about that.

HP4:272
KK:235
CON:233

Cant join this club.

Harry Potter will land there fore sure, but I don't see any of the other two breaking $265 million.

Last chance

I think King Kong will appeal to even more people than LotR did, actually. However, it certainly won't get repeat viewings from hardcore fans.

I'm 100% sure that every little boy in the country will want to see big kong beating up big bad dinos. It will also have stronger female appeal than any LotR film, with the main character being a woman, involved in a very sentimental thingy.

And because it is far less fantasy-ish than LotR (more like Jurassic Park), I think it will appeal to a larger percentage of adults.

So, yeah, overall, I'm pretty sure it'll bring in more people than LotR, but most of them will see it only once. I dunno how it will play out. We've seen non-fanboy movies do extremely well (Shrek 2, Fockers), but KK may end up needing repeat viewings to crack $300M.

King Kong has a growing potential as an Oscar nominee. How does that potentially change things considering... if the buzz keeps going, we won't know the nominees until late January.