Both are the lone openers on February 9. Both have nothing more than short, vague trailers that would be teasers if there hasn't been a new trailer out. Both involve mostly dead draws (Eddie Murphy, Hannibal). Both lack prediction threads here. And both perplex the shit out of me in how to predict them.

Seriously, both could open in a range as wide as $5M to $30M. Both will probably open slightly on the lower half of that scale, but I wouldn't be surprised if they bombed or became hits.

For now:

Norbit - 19/50
I could see this going as low as $5M (As noted above), but audiences seem gullible to movies with men in drag or fat suits or fat suit drag or what have you, and at this dead time of year I think they'll fall for it. Also, Murphy will have "comeback" buzz from Dreamgirls and his Oscar nom to help, even though this contradicts the idea that he's having a comeback and probably kills his shot at actually winning.

Hannibal Rising - 16/37
No Hopkins, no point in seeing it for non-Hannibal fans. Also, doesn't the simultaneous release of the book hurt more than help, especially when the book itself is getting wretched reviews.

Honestly though, this is also the first interesting weekend of the year, and probably the first with a shot of beating 2006 (Methinks we're going to begin the year with at least a 5-week slump).

Im kind of interested in Hannibal Rising although I dont think it will make any real numbers. I have to say that Eddie Murphy seems to have lost alot of his touch ever since he became a family man. I would avoid Norbit like a plague but strangely enough all this gender bending drag queen roles seems to do big numbers no matter if its Big Mommas House, Mrs Doubtfire or Too Wong fu.

It's amazing how successful both genres can be Look:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/cha ... atsuit.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/cha ... essing.htm

Ya know, I think I'm gonna up my Norbit prediction a bit to 22/56.

If the excellent full trailer of Hannibal Rising had been released already, I think I'd be predicting over 20 million OW.

Norbit will be huge at #1. Hannibal Rising will have a solid runner-up start.

Norbit looks like shit, but it'll be #1.

Norbit will be #1. Hannibal Rising will end up with a similar result to Final Destination 3.