[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 13.3 [col] 19.5 [col] 68.21% [col] 2.36%[row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 17.3 [col] 18.5 [col] 93.51% [col] -3.51%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 9 [col] 15 [col] 60.00% [col] -4.29%[row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13.7 [col] 13 [col] 94.62% [col] -5.38%[row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9 [col] 10 [col] 90.00% [col] 0.89%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.1 [col] 6.7 [col] 94.03% [col] -3.07%[row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.4 [col] 5.3 [col] 98.11% [col] -1.89%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.2 [col] 4.1 [col] 97.56% [col] 4.23%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.4 [col] 2.9 [col] 82.76% [col] 18.76%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.3 [col] 95.65% [col] -0.35%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]87.44%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 86.67% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 79.08% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 93.02% [/table]

I like these projections better so I deleted mine:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.5 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.74% [col] -3.82%[row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 18.9 [col] 18.5 [col] 97.84% [col] 10.34%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.2 [col] 15 [col] 81.33% [col] -5.81%[row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.6 [col] 13 [col] 96.92% [col] 4.95%[row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 10.3 [col] 10 [col] 97.00% [col] -1.02%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [col] 2.81%[row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.7 [col] 5.3 [col] 92.45% [col] -1.99%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.1 [col] 100.00% [col] 8.89%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.0 [col] 2.9 [col] 96.55% [col] 16.55%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.3 [col] 95.65% [col] -0.35%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]94.45%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 91.40% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 91.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 96.45% [/table] Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number.
You've gain a 3.05% in your average.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 18.2 [col] 20.2 [col] 90.10% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 12.8 [col] 16.8 [col] 76.19% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 7.3 [col] 14 [col] 52.14% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 16.0 [col] 13.7 [col] 83.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.4 [col] 10.1 [col] 83.17% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.9 [col] 6.9 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.3 [col] 5.4 [col] 83.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.7 [col] 4.5 [col] 95.56% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.9 [col] 2.5 [col] 44.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.7 [col] 2.5 [col] 92.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]79.97%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 75.41% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 83.01% [/table]

89.04%.

89.14% with the projections entered there. 89.59% with my own projections.

Brokeback Mountain won't have that good of an IM, especially with the snowstorm. It should dip in the 3.8-3.9 range I think.

Anyways:

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.4 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.23% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 22.3 [col] 18.5 [col] 79.46% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.7 [col] 15 [col] 84.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 15.6 [col] 13 [col] 80.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.1 [col] 10 [col] 81.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.4 [col] 6.7 [col] 89.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 7.1 [col] 5.3 [col] 66.04% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 3.3 [col] 4.1 [col] 80.49% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.3 [col] 2.9 [col] 86.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.8 [col] 2.3 [col] 78.26% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]81.49%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 83.34% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 80.26% [/table]

God dammit. Two weeks in a row.

91.50%

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 20 [col] 19.5 [col] 97.44% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19 [col] 18.5 [col] 97.30% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 14 [col] 15 [col] 93.33% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 11.5 [col] 13 [col] 88.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.1 [col] 10 [col] 91.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.6 [col] 6.7 [col] 86.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.7 [col] 5.3 [col] 73.58% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.5 [col] 4.1 [col] 90.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.1 [col] 2.9 [col] 93.10% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.7 [col] 2.3 [col] 82.61% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]89.36%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 94.13% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 86.18% [/table]

Looks like the yearly race continues to be extremely close between Zingaling and me.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.5 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 20.0 [col] 18.5 [col] 91.89% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 10.0 [col] 15 [col] 66.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 14.0 [col] 13 [col] 92.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.6 [col] 10 [col] 86.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.4 [col] 6.7 [col] 89.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.4 [col] 5.3 [col] 79.25% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.1 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.5 [col] 2.9 [col] 79.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.8 [col] 2.3 [col] 78.26% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]85.30%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 85.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.39% [/table]

88.46%

89.76% with projections, and 91.18% with my own projections.

great derby

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.1 [col] 19.5 [col] 87.69% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 17.8 [col] 18.5 [col] 96.22% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 11.4 [col] 15 [col] 76.00% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.8 [col] 13 [col] 98.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.8 [col] 10 [col] 98.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.4 [col] 6.7 [col] 95.52% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.8 [col] 5.3 [col] 71.70% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.2 [col] 4.1 [col] 97.56% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.6 [col] 2.9 [col] 75.86% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.8 [col] 2.3 [col] 78.26% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]87.53%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 89.59% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 86.15% [/table]

Better than the last 2 weeks, although I was insanely high on Nanny McPhee and Hoodwinked.

With BoM's numbers, I think Hoodwinked drops a good .5 from projections, as well as Nanny and FD3. Sadly.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.6 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.23% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19.1 [col] 18.5 [col] 96.76% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 11.5 [col] 15 [col] 76.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 14.2 [col] 13 [col] 90.77% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.5 [col] 10 [col] 95.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.7 [col] 6.7 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.6 [col] 5.3 [col] 75.47% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 3.7 [col] 4.1 [col] 90.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.6 [col] 2.9 [col] 75.86% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.3 [col] 95.65% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]88.57%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 88.36% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 88.70% [/table]

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.2 [col] 19.5 [col] 91.28% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 20.8 [col] 18.5 [col] 87.57% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 13.6 [col] 15 [col] 90.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13 [col] 13 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.6 [col] 10 [col] 86.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.1 [col] 6.7 [col] 94.03% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6 [col] 5.3 [col] 86.79% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.1 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.3 [col] 2.9 [col] 86.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 3 [col] 2.3 [col] 69.57% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]89.21%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 92.38% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 87.10% [/table]

i got screwed up by something new last week and now this week too?!?

Change that Hoodwinked projection!

which is it?!?

It will probably have 2.1m-2.2m this weekend. It had 0.46m Friday.

Damn, Hoodwinked & Nanny McPhee both managed to screw my derby over with their debut weeks and their (presumably)last weeks in the derby. Curse them both.

I think I'm overanalyzing things too much. It all started about 3 weeks ago, when I for the first time worked harder and did all the calculations Friday-Saturday-Sunday individually. I did great, near the top of the list and easily my best of 2006. Then these last 2 weeks I've tried to do the same thing. BAD IDEA. Maybe it was beginners luck, or my mind is warped when it comes to doing it that way now. In any case, I've been much worse than I usually am.

Next week I'm gonna take things eassyyyyyy...smoother. Just common knowledge and common sense.

Calculating individual days' drops and increases has never worked. It's probably the worst way to predict for me.

90.36

works wonders for me I do it for the openers and the hold overs.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 20 [col] 19.5 [col] 97.44% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 18.2 [col] 18.5 [col] 98.38% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 11.2 [col] 15 [col] 74.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 10.2 [col] 13 [col] 78.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.3 [col] 10 [col] 93.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7 [col] 6.7 [col] 95.52% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.1 [col] 5.3 [col] 84.91% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.0 [col] 4.1 [col] 97.56% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.3 [col] 2.9 [col] 86.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.3 [col] 2.3 [col] 100.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]90.61%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 87.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 92.87% [/table]