Okay, what are your predictions? A bit early I guess. But I am pretty certain it will be well received by critics and film goers alike, similar to Peter Pan a couple years back. But albeit its critical acclaim it failed miserably at the box office.

If you ask most people, Peter Pan is more popular than Chronicles of Narnia. Although the stories are very different, the feel and aura are similar (e.g, fantastical setting, with kids being the heroes. Regular children entering a realm of fantasy and imagination and end up combating forces of evil. After the fantasy world is saved they end up back in their homes/beds etc.)

So considering this, and the fact that Harry Potter, which is a lot more popular than both combined is coming out only a month prior to this, not to mention that other huge december film (king kong)... Will Chronicles of Narnia be a box office failure like Peter Pan was? Is Harry Potter the only live action kids movie that is a sure-fire success these days? This seems to be the case at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if CON crashed and burned at the box office, not even reaching 100 million.

What do you people say? I don't think it is too early to make a prediction...Most of you would be familiar with the story/setting/atmosphere so I dont think it's too early to start coughing out numbers.


Perhaps not a failure like Peter Pan, but still less than spectactular. I think it will do better overseas.

Emperor, the reason why Peter Pan did miserable is because it was like the umpteenth remake of that story. (the cartoon, hook, the silent version, and the musical).

How many Narnia movies have you seen. Convinced?

Your Kidding Right? This Movie IMO could gross more than 200 Million.

I think that it will at least gross 50m.

Umm, how is 42/160 in any way whatsoever a bad gross? Do you even realize Peter Pan made like 30 million in its entire run? Seriously, this is pretty much the worst connection ever and you completely disprove your entire point with you prediction at the end. . .

this is almost a laughable topic...in no way will this do anything like Peter Pan...it can pull in all of Peter Pans gross in one weekend easy

Chronicles of Narnia- This year's Peter Pan failure?

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Sometimes you should re-read your argument to make sure it makes sense before posting it. Peter Pan had a $11.1M opening and grossed $48.5M total, and yourself is predicting a 42/160 for Narnia. I know you don't mean it figuratively to the dollar, but at least find a movie that's closer to your own prediction. If it grosses 160M total, that's not a failure, my friend.

hehe! i found your prediction just about right!

and its not a failure at all!!

If $160 million is what it will gross, it will be a box office failure. The movie will probably cost around $170 million (including marketing) so it might have to compensate with Worldwide grosses.

ooh, i didnt know its budget was that high!

well, it will flop....... domesticaly

Movies like Narnia (fantasy/historical/epic) tend to do 65%-75% of their gross overseas. If Narnia hits 160 million in USA, then it's guaranteed to make 400 million worldwide. And that's only the theatrical gross, add another 400 million on DVD sales and rentals.

If it makes 160 million in USA, it's a big success. Personally at this point I see it as a 160-180 million grosser. But it's really hard to know, since we don't know much about the film.

Some statistics:

2 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 66.3%
3 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone 67.5%
4 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 63.1%
8 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 70.1%
9 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 63.9%
14 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 68.4%
22 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 53.3%
37 Troy 73.2%
269 Kingdom of Heaven 77.5%
279 King Arthur 74.5%

...That's a list of similarly themed movies from recent years. The percentages mean overseas business. Pirattes of Caribbean is the only movie in the group which made less than 63% of it's gross overseas. And arguably POTC is more american-themed movie, since pirates are essentially american mythology. The rest of the movies in the list are more european based mythology/history, just like Narnia.

Even Peter Pan managed to make 73 million overseas, as opposed to the 50 million domestic run.

If Narnia fails, it will be more of a Lemony Snicket failure then a Peter Pan failure. (i.e. the low 100's.)

Another remake of the Peter Pan story was totally unnecessary, and that's why nobody went, even if the movie was well made. Narnia had not been endlessly remade, and is a very popular children's story that will feel a lot fresher the Peter Pan. Plus it will have the Disney marketing machine ramped up, which in addition, is hitting up the churches because of the Narnia's Christian allegory.

I personally think Narnia will hit the high 100's because there will be a lot of competition this Christmas with HP & KK. I think that HP will hit the low 200's and King Kong the high 200's.

I could DEFINETELY see it gross less than $70 million.

It will dissapoint big time. People dont want this SHIT in cinemas a the moment.

Same goes for Chocolate Factory!

You, my friend, are an absolute idiot. In fact you are so stupid, that I wont even dignify your moronic post with a proper response, other than calling you an idiot, and urging you (and others) to actually READ what i wrote, instead of immediately jumping from the first sentence to the last and then dribbling out useless excrements of your idiocy.

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and you, my friend, will be asked to actually present argument than go on a rampage about someone's IQ level on this site for no reason what so ever. If I see behavior like this again, i'll put a mod in charge to keep an eye on you.

Same goes for you, my idiot friend.

Okay, i will present my "argument"... My post was about asking the people on this forum whether or not CON will be this year's Peter Pan failure. All along did i question this, asking for other people's opinions, whilst bringing forth my own, thinking that it would do better, but still less than spectacular. Without even reading my post some morons on here immediately jumped to the conclusion that i claimed anywhere in my post that it would actually BE the failure that Peter Pan was. Never did i claim this, i merely suggested that it is a very likely possibility and that although i would not be surprised if it failed, i still think it would gross something reasonable (although being quite low considering its huge budget).

Some people (such as temujin and xiayun) should just have their posts removed if they make these kinds of stupid responses to a completely reasonable and relevant thread. They should be banned from replying for 24 hours if they are just going to cirticise somebody's efforts without actually reading what they wrote, for the sake of putting others down in an attempt to feel better about themselves...which is what those 2 trolls mentioned above did when replying to my post.

If anyone here read your post, xiayun did. I'd bet my life on it.

What they're trying to say is that in your argument you insinuate that a 42/160 figure is a failure along the lines of the Peter Pan bomb. Nothing with a $160 finish is ever a bomb, figuritively or relatively.

I also think Potter will have dropped far by Narnia's opening to boost Narnia's weekend to at least FOTR level. I think it'll be closer to $60 at this point.

I basically have a problem with the way you set up your argument. It's pretty clever, I have to say, since you covered both sides. If Narnia grosses 80M total, you can bump up the thread and say "hey, I'm the first one who suggested such possibility"; if it grosses 150M total, you can also bump up the thread and say "hey, I nail it". So anything below 180M, you will be able to find something in the first post to claim you are right. That's no fun. Oh, BTW, to answer your question, no, I'm convinced that Narnia won't be another Peter Pan, but I'm not going to make a thread claiming that.

Ugh, NO WAY. It will never happen. Chronicles of Narnia will make 20 million more on its opening weekend than Peter Pan made in its whole run. I can't believe people are actually thinking this may bomb. There is absolutely ZERO chance of that happening.

I am so confident in my prediction that Narnia will make at least 200 million that I would bet anything on it. Sometimes I can't even tell if you guys live in the real world. This movie will be huge.

and wahtever your argument is, next time, if i see just a clutter of comments insulting people's intelligence with nothing at all in the post refering to the discussion or what the thread itself was about, the advice that you just gave me will be considered against you.