We are in the middle of November and the award season just starts to pick up with Walk the Line's release. Each year there are movies that make quite a good box-office simply thanks to the award buzz surrounding them. Last year, the awards carried The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby just beyond the $100 million mark and helped a small flick like Sideways to actually pass $70 million. As it has become obvious, especially the Best Picture nominees benefit from the awards immensly as well as movies that are surrounded by huge buzz, even though they don't end up nominated (see Cold Mountain as an example). This year seems not so predictable when it comes to possible Oscar contenders and their box-office

The same question has been asked last year around this time and I ask it once again. Which of the potential Oscar hopefuls do you think will be the biggest box-office hit this year? I obviously didn't include movies like Narnia or King Kong, as those would be pretty obvious.


Here is my compiled list of potential Oscar hopefuls this winter:

Syriana
Walk the Line
Brokeback Mountain
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Match Point
The Producers
Rent
Good Night, and Good Luck
The New World
The Libertine
Capote
Pride & Prejudice
Mrs. Henderson Presents


Certainly, not all of them will turn out as much of the contenders as we predict them right now to be. Last year at this point many of us predicted Alexander and The Phantom of the Opera to be huge contenders. We all know how it ended. Nonetheless, from the very beginning they did have some buzz surrounding them and this is the criteria I went by for my selection as well.

As of now I predict that either Munich or Memoirs of a Geisha will end up with the biggest box-office of them, unless The Producers pulls a big surprise and garners many noms.

Right now, I'd give a slight edge to Memoirs of a Geisha.


Here is what I see them making roughly:

Memoirs of a Geisha - $110 million
Munich - $95-100 million
The Producers - $85-95 million
Walk the Line - $75 million
Rent - $70-75 million
Syriana - $55-60 million
The New World - $50-55 million
Good Night, and Good Luck - $35-40 million
Brokeback Mountain - $30 million
Pride & Prejudice - $25-30 million
Match Point - $20 million
Capote - $12-15 million


I really have no clue about Mrs. Henderson Presents and The Libertine, though...

Munich...

Most successful in the end? I have no clue.

Most successful by nomination day? If it's not Narnia or Kong then Walk the Line.

I vote Rent, fallowed by Walk the Line, fallowed by Munich, all three will break 100m

Teh producers is totaly over predicted, Rent will smash it.

Yeah, I dont get some of the predictions for Producers.

Lecter also continues to underr predict P&P

Wait..I thought you predicted WTL to make $216 million and Rent $180 million

Folks. The Producers is light and humorous fun just like Chicago was. The Broadway show is a huge success and it is an Oscar contender like it or not. The Phantom of the Opera crossed $50 million last year, despite mediocre reviews and no big noms at all!

The Producers also has:

- an assload of competition, both from big huge, lumbering family films, family comedies, jim carrey comedies and finally other Oscar aimers. It knows this, that's why it's going limited.

- is a plateaued release that doesn't really benefit from the holiday season like if it went wide on the 23rd (it goes wide on Jan 13).

- Probably won't get a BP nomination, but the Globe should help.

It will make more than Phantom.

I don't think Rent is going THAT wide. I have heard something like 1200 theaters somewhere, but I'm not sure.

Much wider, it seems. 2,500

I changed my Walk the Line Prediction to 154m because I dont see it winning best pic anymore

Okay. That's a bit odd to me though. Rent is a movie that I wouldn't think could support a 2500 theater release, even if it was good, and it's getting torn to shreads in some of the reviews I'm reading.

Indeed, its curently estimated at 2,100, I expect big things, the music in the film is gernerating a crazy amount of buzz, whci Im hoping can traslate into big BO $$$

Wait, why 110 for Memoirs?

Meh, Ive been reading good reviews oh well we shall see in Wednesday what this film can do

because that is most likely the film that is going to win best pic in 2005

And I think Walk the Line will probably be biggest, excluding Kong/Narnia...unless I'm missing something with Memoirs. Munich being a possibility, too.

BJ, the Rent advertising is using critical reviews from web sites. There are no quotes from Time or Ebert and the like. There are some bad reviews floating around, Eugene Levy, David Poland, etc.. It's not getting early reviews from big names, etc.

That's usually a sign of trouble, at least critically.

As long as the film finishes fresh I think it will be fine

Chances are, though, that it won't end up fresh.

Personally, I like the trailers...but...I just cant see it being huge.

And the TV spot uses probably 5 different "raves" from Dark Horizens (I think). Honestly, they put "Spellbinding" or "Amazing" in huge letters, then "darkhorizen" really small and blurry underneath....over and over and over.

BTW Munich will make the most because it's gonna be Spielberg flick that wins best picture, simple as that I think

Probably Munich, Geisha or WTL with 70m-110m. Rent will bomb badly with less then 30m.

Munich

Munich is NOT gonna be successful. Are you people on crack?!?! The Producers will outgross every single one of those movies.