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 The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release) 
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Killing With Kindness
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatars 2nd Wknd


Rev - 91.6m +17%
BJs Prediction: 80.95m +5%
DIB2 - 75.6m -1%
Lotan - 75m -2%
Chip Munkington - 70.2m -8%
Jmovies - 67.6m -12%
Keyser Soze - 66.6 -13%
Gamaur - 65.0m -15%
Eventine - 64.3m -17%
Corpse - 64.0m -17%
LadiesMan217 - 62.8m -18%
Biggestgeekever - 62.2m -19%
The Dark Shape - 59.0m -23%
Nazgul9 - 58.0 -24%

Average: 68.77m -10%

you have until Friday, 10pm eastern

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:16 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
actual wednesday

16,445,291

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?s ... avatar.htm

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:19 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:


hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:


Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:26 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
LadiesMan217 wrote:
hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:

You see what you want to see...

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:30 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Nazgul9 wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:

You see what you want to see...

indeed

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:32 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Nazgul9 wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:

You see what you want to see...

indeed


oh common I am glad fox will do whatever it takes to make sure Avatar continues dominating

I have a good feeling that Sherlock will not do $200M anymore. Hell even 160M will be hard


Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:35 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
LadiesMan217 wrote:
BJ wrote:


hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:


There is absolutely no evidence of that, and it's certainly plausible that Alvin made 0.2 less then they were expecting. If they gave it to AVATAR, the it would be above their 16.5 million estimate, not below it!!!

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:36 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Bryan_smith wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
BJ wrote:


hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:


There is absolutely no evidence of that, and it's certainly plausible that Alvin made 0.2 less then they were expecting. If they gave it to AVATAR, the it would be above their 16.5 million estimate, not below it!!!

no doubt, both films dropped from estimates, shitmunks just dropped more.

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:38 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
LadiesMan217 wrote:
BJ wrote:
Nazgul9 wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:

You see what you want to see...

indeed


oh common I am glad fox will do whatever it takes to make sure Avatar continues dominating

I have a good feeling that Sherlock will not do $200M anymore. Hell even 160M will be hard

holmes was guaranteed to be third place after release dates were announced.

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:39 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
BJ wrote:
Nazgul9 wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:

You see what you want to see...

indeed


oh common I am glad fox will do whatever it takes to make sure Avatar continues dominating

I have a good feeling that Sherlock will not do $200M anymore. Hell even 160M will be hard

holmes was guaranteed to be third place after release dates were announced.


for shiz. I am just glad it will bring excel down to earth who was predicting sherlock to be bigger than Avatar. Also, even if Sherlock does less than 160M it still will be a big hit because it had only 85M budget


Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:46 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
LadiesMan217 wrote:
BJ wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
BJ wrote:
Nazgul9 wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:

You see what you want to see...

indeed


oh common I am glad fox will do whatever it takes to make sure Avatar continues dominating

I have a good feeling that Sherlock will not do $200M anymore. Hell even 160M will be hard

holmes was guaranteed to be third place after release dates were announced.


for shiz. I am just glad it will bring excel down to earth who was predicting sherlock to be bigger than Avatar. Also, even if Sherlock does less than 160M it still will be a big hit because it had only 85M budget

noticed, the CGI is mediocre at best, T2 1991 levels, easily topped by JP.

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Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:48 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
LadiesMan217 wrote:
BJ wrote:


hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:


That's a ridiculous assumption. Estimates are just that: estimates. It's not that they are numbers that Fox can then manipulate into actuals. Estimates are reported and are not always exact. In fact, openers numbers have continually been less than with actuals as reported by Nikki Finke. To make this assumption now with Avatar is unfounded.

Peace,
Mike


Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:53 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
-

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Last edited by BJ on Fri Dec 25, 2009 10:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Fri Dec 25, 2009 12:12 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
sold out two more shows today than it did yesterday but will still be harmed buy theaters closing early, lost two 3-D showings and half of its 2-D showing about 5-7 lost. I think a 35%-40% drop is in store, staying over 10m could be hard.

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Fri Dec 25, 2009 12:17 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
MikeQ. wrote:
LadiesMan217 wrote:
BJ wrote:


hahah Alvin is $18.8M now. I see they deducted some off alvin and gave it to avatar. Same will happen tomorrow. :thumbsup:


That's a ridiculous assumption. Estimates are just that: estimates. It's not that they are numbers that Fox can then manipulate into actuals. Estimates are reported and are not always exact. In fact, openers numbers have continually been less than with actuals as reported by Nikki Finke. To make this assumption now with Avatar is unfounded.

Peace,
Mike

no doubt :thumbsup:

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Fri Dec 25, 2009 12:18 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatars Thursday


Rev - 14.8m -10%
Chip Munkington - 13.2m -20%
LadiesMan217 - 12.4 -24%
Mark66 - 12,375,000 -25%
Keyser Soze - 12.0m -27%
MG - Casey - 11.3m -31%
Gamaur - 11m -33%
BJs Prediction: 10.95m -33%


Average: 12.25m -25%%

closed

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Fri Dec 25, 2009 12:19 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatars 2nd Wknd


Rev - 91.6m +17%
BJs Prediction: 80.95m +5%
DIB2 - 75.6m -1%
Lotan - 75m -2%
Chip Munkington - 70.2m -8%
Jmovies - 67.6m -12%
Keyser Soze - 66.6 -13%
Gamaur - 65.0m -15%
Eventine - 64.3m -17%
Corpse - 64.0m -17%
LadiesMan217 - 62.8m -18%
Biggestgeekever - 62.2m -19%
The Dark Shape - 59.0m -23%
Nazgul9 - 58.0 -24%

Average: 68.77m -10%

you have until Friday, 10pm eastern, get em in eh

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Fri Dec 25, 2009 1:04 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
After my 2nd viewing i have concluded that Avatar i better than Star Trek with ten times the emotional depth, and the 2nd best film of the year to Inglouious Basterds.

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Fri Dec 25, 2009 1:16 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Keyser Söze wrote:
BJ wrote:
Got some big predicts coming in, remember all, Monday was better than expected do to the storm, and no film has ever made over 10m on Christmas Eve.


i see 2d sellout in nyc. i think imax/3d would ameliorate the drop for avatar. i see few theaters have their last show ~ 730Pm and that should mean loss of 15% of business but strong early business should make up.

http://www.fandango.com/amcloewslincoln ... heaterpage

would be pretty kewl to see Revs prediction hold true :yes:

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Fri Dec 25, 2009 2:38 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Changing my second weekend prediction to 68m.


Fri Dec 25, 2009 4:14 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
The Dark Shape wrote:
Changing my second weekend prediction to 68m.

nice bump but still low :yes:

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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
DayAvatarI Am LegendReturn of the King
Wed--$34,450,834
- / -
$34,450,834 / 1
Thu--$17,019,987
-50.6% / -
$51,470,821 / 2
Fri$26,752,099
- / -
$26,752,099 / 1
$30,059,386
- / -
$30,059,386 / 1
$21,811,549
+28.2% / -
$73,282,370 / 3
Sat$25,529,036
-4.6% / -
$52,281,135 / 2
$28,795,114
-4.2% / -
$58,854,500 / 2
$27,492,053
+26% / -
$100,774,423 / 4
Sun$24,744,346
-3.1% / -
$77,025,481 / 3
$18,356,821
-36.3% / -
$77,211,321 / 3
$23,326,111
-15.2% / -
$124,100,534 / 5
Mon$16,385,820
-33.8% / -
$93,411,301 / 4
$7,465,450
-59.3% / -
$84,676,771 / 4
$13,563,208
-41.9% / -
$137,663,742 / 6
Tue$16,086,461
-1.8% / -
$109,497,762 / 5
$6,503,117
-12.9% / -
$91,179,888 / 5
$12,476,242
-8% / -
$150,139,984 / 7
Wed$16,445,291
+2.2% / -
$125,943,053 / 6
$6,021,296
-7.4% / -
$97,201,184 / 6
$7,544,400
-39.5% / -78.1%
$157,684,384 / 8
Thuest. $11,325,000
-31.1% / -
$137,268,000 / 7
$6,064,109
+0.7% / -
$103,265,293 / 7
$13,986,220
+85.4% / -17.8%
$171,670,604 / 9

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Last edited by Nazgul9 on Sat Dec 26, 2009 2:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Fri Dec 25, 2009 9:21 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Even though I've been predicting $400m + all along I keep having to raise my predictions! $64M for the weekend. I need to see this again.


Fri Dec 25, 2009 9:39 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Revised 2nd weekend prediction- $69.6M (-9.6%)


Fri Dec 25, 2009 12:52 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatars Thursday


Rev - 14.8m -10%
Chip Munkington - 13.2m -20%
LadiesMan217 - 12.4 -24%
Mark66 - 12,375,000 -25%
Keyser Soze - 12.0m -27%
MG - Casey - 11.3m -31%
Gamaur - 11m -33%
BJs Prediction: 10.95m -33%


Average: 12.25m -25%%

closed MG win with a phenomenal prediction right on the dot :thumbsup:

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