I'm liking my relatively high prediction for STM

Well, Xia said he's taking some time off from predicting, so seeing that he hasn't really posted the last couple days I'm assuming this is extending to posting on the site, period. bABA went to Las Vegas or something I think for a week.

Xia has been here a bit since he quit predicting, but yeah. Missing in action for sure.

I don't think She's the Man is as great as people are playing it out to be. It's the type of film that typically gets a high ratio, since it is aiming squarely at the age group that do go on the internet and review the film. With a 250 ratio, it's doing okayish.

At the same time, I believe Vendetta will have a smaller ratio than people are projecting. Based on the crowd reports, this is bringing in older audiences too.

PEACE, Mike.

why did he choose to do that? too much competition? get into a fight wit someone?

Believe he was just worn out from it.

V for Vendetta - 1064, +158, B+
She's the Man - 628, +159, B (up from B-)
Find Me Guilty - 71, +10, B

I really don't think V will reach 25m this weekend at this point.

xiayun's out of town at one of the conventions for the site.

Wow, I change my mind about She's the Man.

But I still think Vendetta's doing just fine.

PEACE, Mike.

I still think a 25 million weekend is easily reachable...

Anybody think that St. Patricks Day could be affecting everything? Getting runk instead of going to the movies, so Sat will be a big recovery day and thus big increases...

Last year it didn't seem to have had much of an effect on the box office but in 2003 there was a solid day-after increase, and 2004 definitely saw a bigger than average Wednesday drop. Could be coincidence though, given last year's nil-effect.

V for Vendetta - 1124, +60, B+
She's the Man - 670, +42, B
Find Me Guilty - 74, +3, B

I looked at 2000's stats, which St. Paddy's Day was Friday. The increases on Friday were pretty small (most of them were sub 100%).

But the Saturday increases were massive (most films increased 60-100%). Even horror movies like Final Destination (which opened on this weekend), increased 32%. So yes, Saturday increases will be bigger than usual.

V for Vendetta - 1159, +35, B+
She's the Man - 701, +31, B
Find Me Guilty - 76, +2, B

Final Numbers.

V for Vendetta - 1175, +16, B+
She's the Man - 720, +19, B
Find Me Guilty - 77, +1, B

My projections:

V for Vendetta - This seems really poor for V. It wasn't really backloaded like Sin City, and the number is honestly terrible for a movie that had a front page picture all day. There is an absurd percentage of written reviews, but that just makes me think the ratio will be higher since I doubt it's still clogged that badly. I would usually expect a ratio of 250 for about 4.7m, and that would fit with the 4 hour ratio as well. Honestly I don't see why it couldn't be even lower then that. I'll go with 5.6m, and it might somehow reach 7m, but I kind of doubt it.

She's the Man - It was a bit backloaded which is a good sign, and I don't see this as the type to have a really high 4 hour ratio. 3.1m which makes for a ratio of 232.

Find Me Guilty - It did awful even compared to the expectations. $300,000 would be great with these numbers as a 250 ratio for the day and 20 for the final 4 hours would seem optimistic. I'm going to guess it's something like $175,000, maybe less. What a bomb.

Find me guilty has destroyed my derby, FUCK!@!!! So increadibly dissapointing for V, so dissapointing

Nice for she's the man sheads some light on what I am shure will be yet another shitty derby

Thanks for the back-up, Scott... I doubt it'll have as high an internal as Erin Brockovich (which was like 3.8) but I'm hoping it can at least duplicate Final Destination's internal legs... or at least do better over the weekend than Sin City.

Wow, lol, Nebs is winning the Derby.

Don't forget about me either, I also went low-ish. I have a decent FMG score too, so that should help.

V ratio: 133. Man ratio: 185.

V had a ratio under 135 even with a frontpage picture all day. The frontpage usually more or less doubles the ratio. I'm happy for the movie, but it's weird. It has the 15th best grade ever right now, nearly an A- in fact, but other movies to start out with strong grades did not have low ratios.

Anyone have an explanation? I have no idea.

I had a feeling the ratio was waaaay overprojected. Even with the frontpage, it still seemed a little too slow. I think a lot of people were out last night instead of, you know, grading films. Heh.

Yahoo's ratio has been trended lower this year, coinciding with the fact that the hourly updates are becoming more inconsistent. We may have to re-adjust our thinking again, lowering the standard projected ratios for non-frontpage movies.