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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68265
Location: Seattle, WA
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 Re: June 6-8 Predictions bl1222 wrote: Edge of Tomorrow ... I'm thinking $29M OW for this one. LOL. _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
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| Tue Jun 03, 2014 9:37 pm |
 
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35227
Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Quote: 'The Fault In Our Stars' On Track To Smash All Twitter Records
By Alex Edghill
Tuesday Morning Update: The Fault In Our Stars has taken Twitter by storm over the last few months and driven levels of buzz that have simply never been seen before. For instance its Sunday and Monday numbers here are by far the largest ever on record over the last five years. Its Monday number was almost double the next best, The Twilight Saga: New Moon's 94,789. Not that long ago I thought the Twilight tweet records were untouchable but the appeal of this film seems to be resonating with a massively wide female demographic which is very vocal about the film and their support/eagerness to see it. To put its 190k Monday into perspective, Divergent had just 54,315 on the same day before release. I think it is going to have no trouble besting New Moon's tweet record mark for the entire week given this start and regardless of how this translates to box office (though I have a hard time seeing this not break out massively), this level of interest means that John Green has become the new Nicolas Sparks and his other books and future books will be much sought after commodities by studios.
Edge Of Tomorrow was miles behind with 12,657 tweets on Monday, good enough for 6th spot on the day and up 70% from Sunday's 7,458 tweets. Tom Cruise has done very well in the Sci Fi arena over his career and while his appeal with the ladies has taken a hit in recent years his draw of males (albeit now skewing much older) remains strong. By comparison, Elysium had 2,176 tweets its Monday before release while Oblivion had 4,041 tweets. Edge Of Tomorrow did open in quite a few territories this past weekend which will serve to boost its numbers but I am still liking that it is pushing 10k tweets on Monday. Last time Cruise opened a film in June was Knight & Day which limped its way to $20 million over its first weekend. Given the change of genre and how well Oblivion did for Cruise I think $25 million should probably be the basement though there is definitely potential for something more if it continues to do well buzz-wise.
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| Wed Jun 04, 2014 12:15 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35227
Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Chef expands to 1,298 theaters.
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| Wed Jun 04, 2014 12:16 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35227
Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions 1. THE FAULT IN OUR STARS - 57.2 MILLION (New)
2. EDGE OF TOMORROW - 33.783 MILLION (New)
3. MALEFICENT - 33.3 MILLION (-52%)
4. X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST - 19.2 MILLION (-41%)
5. A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST - 7.22 MILLION (-57%)
6. GODZILLA - 6.364 MILLION (-47%)
7. BLENDED - 5.64 MILLION (-36%)
8. NEIGHBORS - 5.41 MILLION (33%)
9. CHEF - 3.1 MILLION
10. MILLION DOLLAR ARM - 2.22 MILLION (-38%)
11. THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 - 2 MILLION (-47%)
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| Wed Jun 04, 2014 12:34 am |
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movies35
Forum General
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:53 pm
Posts: 8627
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions I hope Chef does well in its expansion. It was such a delightful little movie. I saw my first TV spot for it today.
_________________
Top 10 Films of 2016
1. La La Land
2. Other People
3. Nocturnal Animals
4. Swiss Army Man
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. The Edge of Seventeen
7. Sing Street
8. Indignation
9. The Lobster
10. Hell or High Water
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| Wed Jun 04, 2014 12:34 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
Posts: 7195
Location: Wisconsin
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Of the May movies that I've tracked on movietickets, I think Godzilla is probably the best to compare TFIOS to because of the upfront demand it had from great marketing and it's fanbase.
Wednesday morning before release.
Godzilla 39% share
TFIOS 43% share
Thursday
Godzilla 64%
TFIOS as of 7pm Wed it's already at 59%.
It's not apples to apples, but it may give some indication to how strong it's opening day might be.
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| Wed Jun 04, 2014 8:04 pm |
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Bishop King
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sun May 19, 2013 2:05 pm
Posts: 354
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Boxoffice.com has Fault opening 49m. They've actually been pretty good but for last weeks call for Million
Ways Seth should stick to Ted.
I was thinking 55 was in the cards but twitter slowed a bit, the presales are good
But not ridiculously good. I think it comes close to Divergents open.
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| Wed Jun 04, 2014 8:44 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35227
Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Top Ticket Sellers on MovieTickets.com
1. The Fault In Our Stars - 60%
2. Maleficent - 14%
3. X-Men - 5%
4. Edge of Tomorrow - 3%
5. A Million Ways To Die - 2%
What will Fault be at tomorrow? 70? 80? This will absolutely be another Sex & The City at the Box Office. I can't really see it opening less than that film.
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| Wed Jun 04, 2014 9:19 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
Posts: 7195
Location: Wisconsin
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Magic Mike wrote: Top Ticket Sellers on MovieTickets.com
1. The Fault In Our Stars - 60%
2. Maleficent - 14%
3. X-Men - 5%
4. Edge of Tomorrow - 3%
5. A Million Ways To Die - 2%
What will Fault be at tomorrow? 70? 80? It's now up to 63% share, but what makes it even more impressive is that there is another movie that's going to make 25-40M this weekend in EOT, and it's still dominating the online sales by this much. Godzilla didn't have another opener (Million Dollar Arm doesn't count) to compete with.
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| Wed Jun 04, 2014 9:38 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35227
Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions 65%
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:02 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Sex and the City is a good comparison, as the advance online sales for that film pointed to a much bigger opening than the $57 million it did make, much like how this film should be having a $90+ million opening with these pre-sales.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:06 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
Posts: 7195
Location: Wisconsin
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Jon wrote: Sex and the City is a good comparison, as the advance online sales for that film pointed to a much bigger opening than the $57 million it did make, much like how this film should be having a $90+ million opening with these pre-sales. It's a good comparison, but I don't think TFIOS will be quite as frontloaded to opening day as SITC.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:13 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions I think TFIOS can still be frontloaded similar to STIC because of in built fanbase of the book plus the general female appeal.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 2:48 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35227
Location: Minnesota
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions I think it will be just slightly less front-loaded over the weekend.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 2:50 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Yes I agree on that but for comparison sake I believe SATC is better indicator here than say Godzilla.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 3:16 am |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am
Posts: 7041
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Fault has like 67% of sales, Edge only 3% behind Maleficent and DOFP.
Disgusting how audiences continue to turn up for Disney's tripe.
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Calls
Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2
Lorax over Despicable Me
Men in Black 3 Under 100m
Madagascar 3 Under 100m
Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 3:22 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions ^ Fault isn't Disney though
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 3:45 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
Posts: 7195
Location: Wisconsin
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Magic Mike wrote: I think it will be just slightly less front-loaded over the weekend. Yeah, it probably won't be a big difference. SITC had a Friday/WKnd multiplier of 2.13. I'm predicting 2.2-2.3 for Fault. I'm really curious to see what the cinemascore for this turns out to be. Can it get an A+? I also find it interesting on the critic side that it's currently at 76% overall, but "top critics" are at 10-0 for 100%. It won't stay that way, but it's surprising anyway.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 7:30 am |
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Bishop King
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sun May 19, 2013 2:05 pm
Posts: 354
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions I really miss Fandango's Five. One could see a very clear correlation between ticket sales
And weekend grosses. Im still tryimg to get a grasp on movietickets info.
Lasr week Maifecent was 80% presales on Fandango as of thursday-ish. On movietickets it was not that high,
Million ways was under 10%. So clearly not a good sign for Edge of Manana.
Fault is going to crush it, im hoping for 60 will be happy with 54.
Edge of Manana 29 but want to say 22.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 8:01 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Bishop King wrote: I really miss Fandango's Five. One could see a very clear correlation between ticket sales
And weekend grosses. Im still tryimg to get a grasp on movietickets info.
Lasr week Maifecent was 80% presales on Fandango as of thursday-ish. On movietickets it was not that high,
Million ways was under 10%. So clearly not a good sign for Edge of Manana.
Fault is going to crush it, im hoping for 60 will be happy with 54.
Edge of Manana 29 but want to say 22. I think the difference between movietickets.com and the Fandango press releases is that the movietickets Top 5 covers ALL sales over the last 24 hours, whereas Fandango is looking purely at the sales for the weekend.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 10:29 am |
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CowboyFromHell
Your Knife, My Back. My Gun, Your Head.
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 5:23 pm
Posts: 2033
Location: Somewhere, USA
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Here are MTC's numbers for this weekend: Quote: 38.5 fault {nm} notfabio on Jun 05, 06:00 Quote: 23.9 edge {nm} notfabio on Jun 05, 06:01
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 10:54 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68265
Location: Seattle, WA
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions That would be shit for both....and a real blow for Edge of Tomorrow. I sincerely hope that doesn't happen.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
LIBERATE HONG KONG
BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 11:52 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
Posts: 7195
Location: Wisconsin
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions Algren wrote: That would be shit for both....and a real blow for Edge of Tomorrow. I sincerely hope that doesn't happen. Well, it would be less than expected for Fault, but a fantastic gross anyway. Female skewing films are really hard to predict because social media for them is so inflated. 24M for EOT would be disappointing given the gross of Oblivion and the great reviews for this film.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:05 pm |
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Bishop King
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sun May 19, 2013 2:05 pm
Posts: 354
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions MTC is of no use
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:12 pm |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Re: June 6-8 Predictions In the grand scheme of things, anything over $30m is phenomenal for TFIOS. The budget was $12m.
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| Thu Jun 05, 2014 3:06 pm |
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