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 Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million? 

Will An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million?
Poll ended at Sat Dec 22, 2012 8:37 pm
Yes 44%  44%  [ 8 ]
No 56%  56%  [ 10 ]
Total votes : 18

 Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million? 
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Extraordinary
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Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
DayHobbitI Am LegendFOTR
Wed--$18,214,211
- / -
$18,214,211 / 1
Thu--$9,703,767
-46.7% / -
$27,917,978 / 2
WK 0--$27,917,978
Fri$37,125,547
- / -
$37,125,547 / 1
$30,059,386
- / -
$30,059,386 / 1
$14,232,941
+46.7% / -
$42,150,919 / 3
Sat$27,739,815
-25.3% / -
$64,865,362 / 2
$28,795,114
-4.2% / -
$58,854,500 / 2
$17,062,771
+19.9% / -
$59,213,690 / 4
Sun$19,751,941
-28.8% / -
$84,617,303 / 3
$18,356,821
-36.3% / -
$77,211,321 / 3
$15,915,778
-6.7% / -
$75,129,468 / 5
Mon$7,738,293
-60.8% / -
$92,355,596 / 4
$7,465,450
-59.3% / -
$84,676,771 / 4
$7,332,948
-53.9% / -
$82,462,416 / 6
Tue$7,855,090
+1.5% / -
$100,210,686 / 5
$6,503,117
-12.9% / -
$91,179,888 / 5
$11,570,303
+57.8% / -
$94,032,719 / 7
Wed$6,327,187
-19.5% / -
$106,537,873 / 6
$6,021,296
-7.4% / -
$97,201,184 / 6
$12,114,102
+4.7% / -33.5%
$106,146,821 / 8
Thu$6,615,027
+4.5% / -
$113,152,900 / 7
$6,064,109
+0.7% / -
$103,265,293 / 7
$11,020,009
-9% / +13.6%
$117,166,830 / 9
WK 1$113,152,900$103,265,293$89,248,852
FriEst. $10,070,000
+52.2% / -72.9%
$123,223,000 / 8
$10,907,907
+79.9% / -63.7%
$114,173,200 / 8
$12,567,729
+14% / -11.7%
$129,734,559 / 10
SatEst. $14,205,000
+41.1% / -48.8%
$137,428,000 / 9
$12,401,806
+13.7% / -56.9%
$126,575,006 / 9
$13,998,713
+11.4% / -18%
$143,733,272 / 11
SunEst. $12,665,000
-10.8% / -35.9%
$150,093,000 / 10
$10,193,488
-17.8% / -44.5%
$136,768,494 / 10
$12,129,140
-13.4% / -23.8%
$155,862,412 / 12
MonEst. $6,910,000
-45.4% / -10.7%
$157,003,000 / 11
$4,401,023
-56.8% / -41%
$141,169,517 / 11
$8,008,803
-34% / +9.2%
$163,871,215 / 13
TueEst. $11,300,000
+63.5% / +43.9%
$168,303,000 / 12
$9,781,154
+122.2% / +50.4%
$150,950,671 / 12
$10,248,284
+28% / -11.4%
$174,119,499 / 14
WedEst. $11,360,000
+0.5% / +79.5%
$179,663,000 / 13
$8,721,349
-10.8% / +44.8%
$159,672,020 / 13
$4,616,413
-55% / -61.9%
$178,735,912 / 15

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Thu Dec 27, 2012 12:19 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Back ahead of FOTR but its definitely not apples to apples comparison. With more than stronger numbers ahead this week TH can make up for the expected-upcoming-bigger drops.


Thu Dec 27, 2012 12:30 pm
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Hatchling

Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 10:06 am
Posts: 11
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
The Hobbit is very comparable to FOTR when you look at the Christmas weekdays. The Christmas Eve Monday drops (-45.4% vs -53.9%), Christmas Day increases (+63.5% vs +57.8%) and the Boxing Day increases (+0.5% vs +4.7%). It is performing much more like FOTR during Christmas than it is performing like I am Legend.

FOTR fell -9% on Thursday 27th, let's see what The Hobbit can do. Christmas Eve and Day drop/increases were better than FOTR but it didn't continue the slightly better than FOTR trend on the 26th. Let's see if it can keep itself above the 10.0 million mark (-12% drop) today, Thursday.

If it continues with FOTR-looking legs it will cruise past $325 million with ease. (With the Christmas numbers it is showing right now there is still a possibility for ROTK total numbers, IF it can keep the FOTR-legs even after Christmas). It's far from over. The battle is on!


Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:17 pm
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Indiana Jones IV
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Posts: 1796
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
I will eat my balls if it makes $377M.

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Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:45 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Well for starters it won't have major Oscar buzz something that the original trilogy enjoyed even if it was majorly for the third movie. Also I don't think TH's legs will be as good as FOTR's after holidays, but then again it does not need to have those kind of legs to get past $325m.


Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:40 pm
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Extraordinary
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Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
$377m? *lol* i'm still hoping it does $300m. Legs won't be anywhere near FOTR post holidays, i'm afraid.

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Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:05 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Yep $377m is not possible even if its numbers are good (borderline great) over holidays.

Just comparing it to TTT and ROTK dailies will seal this.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/ ... s-lotr.htm


Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:19 pm
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Extraordinary
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Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
DayHobbitI Am LegendFOTR
Wed--$18,214,211
- / -
$18,214,211 / 1
Thu--$9,703,767
-46.7% / -
$27,917,978 / 2
WK 0--$27,917,978
Fri$37,125,547
- / -
$37,125,547 / 1
$30,059,386
- / -
$30,059,386 / 1
$14,232,941
+46.7% / -
$42,150,919 / 3
Sat$27,739,815
-25.3% / -
$64,865,362 / 2
$28,795,114
-4.2% / -
$58,854,500 / 2
$17,062,771
+19.9% / -
$59,213,690 / 4
Sun$19,751,941
-28.8% / -
$84,617,303 / 3
$18,356,821
-36.3% / -
$77,211,321 / 3
$15,915,778
-6.7% / -
$75,129,468 / 5
Mon$7,738,293
-60.8% / -
$92,355,596 / 4
$7,465,450
-59.3% / -
$84,676,771 / 4
$7,332,948
-53.9% / -
$82,462,416 / 6
Tue$7,855,090
+1.5% / -
$100,210,686 / 5
$6,503,117
-12.9% / -
$91,179,888 / 5
$11,570,303
+57.8% / -
$94,032,719 / 7
Wed$6,327,187
-19.5% / -
$106,537,873 / 6
$6,021,296
-7.4% / -
$97,201,184 / 6
$12,114,102
+4.7% / -33.5%
$106,146,821 / 8
Thu$6,615,027
+4.5% / -
$113,152,900 / 7
$6,064,109
+0.7% / -
$103,265,293 / 7
$11,020,009
-9% / +13.6%
$117,166,830 / 9
WK 1$113,152,900$103,265,293$89,248,852
FriEst. $10,070,000
+52.2% / -72.9%
$123,223,000 / 8
$10,907,907
+79.9% / -63.7%
$114,173,200 / 8
$12,567,729
+14% / -11.7%
$129,734,559 / 10
SatEst. $14,205,000
+41.1% / -48.8%
$137,428,000 / 9
$12,401,806
+13.7% / -56.9%
$126,575,006 / 9
$13,998,713
+11.4% / -18%
$143,733,272 / 11
SunEst. $12,665,000
-10.8% / -35.9%
$150,093,000 / 10
$10,193,488
-17.8% / -44.5%
$136,768,494 / 10
$12,129,140
-13.4% / -23.8%
$155,862,412 / 12
MonEst. $6,910,000
-45.4% / -10.7%
$157,003,000 / 11
$4,401,023
-56.8% / -41%
$141,169,517 / 11
$8,008,803
-34% / +9.2%
$163,871,215 / 13
TueEst. $11,300,000
+63.5% / +43.9%
$168,303,000 / 12
$9,781,154
+122.2% / +50.4%
$150,950,671 / 12
$10,248,284
+28% / -11.4%
$174,119,499 / 14
WedEst. $11,360,000
+0.5% / +79.5%
$179,663,000 / 13
$8,721,349
-10.8% / +44.8%
$159,672,020 / 13
$4,616,413
-55% / -61.9%
$178,735,912 / 15
ThuEst. 10,120,000
-10.9% / +53%
$189,783,000 / 14
$7,403,217
-15.1% / +22.1%
$167,075,237 / 14
$3,767,510
-18.4% / -65.8%
$182,503,422 / 16
WK 2$76,630,100$63,809,944$65,336,592

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Fri Dec 28, 2012 12:55 pm
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Hatchling

Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 10:06 am
Posts: 11
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Keep cool my babies, it's an upper limit, not something that is guaranteed.

Before Christmas it looked like it would land somewhere between 290 and 335 million. Taking the Christmas performance, which has been surprisingly good so far, into account I see the span being between 310 and 370 million right now. Most probably somewhere in the middle around 340 million. I am Legend legs from now on would give it 310 million, FOTR legs 370 million.

It managed a 11% drop yesterday, compared to FOTRs 9% on the same calendar day. A FOTR increase of 14% today (Friday) would give it 11.5 million to start the weekend. Let's see if the Hobbit continues to show that kind of spirit.


Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:04 pm
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 15197
Location: Planet Xatar
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Kurre wrote:
Keep cool my babies... I am Legend

With 10 posts since 2005 - - I would have to agree!


Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:35 pm
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now we know
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Posts: 68301
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
It's pulling away like a steam train. Nice.

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Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:22 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Kurre wrote:
Keep cool my babies, it's an upper limit, not something that is guaranteed.

Before Christmas it looked like it would land somewhere between 290 and 335 million. Taking the Christmas performance, which has been surprisingly good so far, into account I see the span being between 310 and 370 million right now. Most probably somewhere in the middle around 340 million. I am Legend legs from now on would give it 310 million, FOTR legs 370 million.

It managed a 11% drop yesterday, compared to FOTRs 9% on the same calendar day. A FOTR increase of 14% today (Friday) would give it 11.5 million to start the weekend. Let's see if the Hobbit continues to show that kind of spirit.


An upper limit is when it can be achieved $370m is NOT possible. $340m could be the upper limit IMO.


Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:30 pm
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Extraordinary
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Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
DayHobbitI Am LegendFOTR
Wed--$18,214,211
- / -
$18,214,211 / 1
Thu--$9,703,767
-46.7% / -
$27,917,978 / 2
WK 0--$27,917,978
Fri$37,125,547
- / -
$37,125,547 / 1
$30,059,386
- / -
$30,059,386 / 1
$14,232,941
+46.7% / -
$42,150,919 / 3
Sat$27,739,815
-25.3% / -
$64,865,362 / 2
$28,795,114
-4.2% / -
$58,854,500 / 2
$17,062,771
+19.9% / -
$59,213,690 / 4
Sun$19,751,941
-28.8% / -
$84,617,303 / 3
$18,356,821
-36.3% / -
$77,211,321 / 3
$15,915,778
-6.7% / -
$75,129,468 / 5
Mon$7,738,293
-60.8% / -
$92,355,596 / 4
$7,465,450
-59.3% / -
$84,676,771 / 4
$7,332,948
-53.9% / -
$82,462,416 / 6
Tue$7,855,090
+1.5% / -
$100,210,686 / 5
$6,503,117
-12.9% / -
$91,179,888 / 5
$11,570,303
+57.8% / -
$94,032,719 / 7
Wed$6,327,187
-19.5% / -
$106,537,873 / 6
$6,021,296
-7.4% / -
$97,201,184 / 6
$12,114,102
+4.7% / -33.5%
$106,146,821 / 8
Thu$6,615,027
+4.5% / -
$113,152,900 / 7
$6,064,109
+0.7% / -
$103,265,293 / 7
$11,020,009
-9% / +13.6%
$117,166,830 / 9
WK 1$113,152,900$103,265,293$89,248,852
FriEst. $10,070,000
+52.2% / -72.9%
$123,223,000 / 8
$10,907,907
+79.9% / -63.7%
$114,173,200 / 8
$12,567,729
+14% / -11.7%
$129,734,559 / 10
SatEst. $14,205,000
+41.1% / -48.8%
$137,428,000 / 9
$12,401,806
+13.7% / -56.9%
$126,575,006 / 9
$13,998,713
+11.4% / -18%
$143,733,272 / 11
SunEst. $12,665,000
-10.8% / -35.9%
$150,093,000 / 10
$10,193,488
-17.8% / -44.5%
$136,768,494 / 10
$12,129,140
-13.4% / -23.8%
$155,862,412 / 12
MonEst. $6,910,000
-45.4% / -10.7%
$157,003,000 / 11
$4,401,023
-56.8% / -41%
$141,169,517 / 11
$8,008,803
-34% / +9.2%
$163,871,215 / 13
TueEst. $11,300,000
+63.5% / +43.9%
$168,303,000 / 12
$9,781,154
+122.2% / +50.4%
$150,950,671 / 12
$10,248,284
+28% / -11.4%
$174,119,499 / 14
WedEst. $11,360,000
+0.5% / +79.5%
$179,663,000 / 13
$8,721,349
-10.8% / +44.8%
$159,672,020 / 13
$4,616,413
-55% / -61.9%
$178,735,912 / 15
ThuEst. $10,120,000
-10.9% / +53%
$189,783,000 / 14
$7,403,217
-15.1% / +22.1%
$167,075,237 / 14
$3,767,510
-18.4% / -65.8%
$182,503,422 / 16
WK 2$76,630,100$63,809,944$65,336,592
FriEst. $10,725,000
+6% / +6.5%
$200,508,000 / 15
$9,285,282
+25.4% / -14.9%
$176,360,519 / 15
$6,783,240
+80% / -46%
$189,286,662 / 17

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Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:54 am
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Indiana Jones IV
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Posts: 1796
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Its score has dropped another point at IMDB. When all is said and done, when it has 500 000+ votes in 6 months, it'll probably be a long way off from TTT (the lowest-rated LotR movie).

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3- Lone Survivor 8.5/10
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Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:33 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
$11m ahead of FOTR and should lead by $25m+ by Jan 1st after which FOTR should start closing the gap.


Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:54 pm
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Extraordinary
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Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
DayHobbitI Am LegendFOTR
Wed--$18,214,211
- / -
$18,214,211 / 1
Thu--$9,703,767
-46.7% / -
$27,917,978 / 2
WK 0--$27,917,978
Fri$37,125,547
- / -
$37,125,547 / 1
$30,059,386
- / -
$30,059,386 / 1
$14,232,941
+46.7% / -
$42,150,919 / 3
Sat$27,739,815
-25.3% / -
$64,865,362 / 2
$28,795,114
-4.2% / -
$58,854,500 / 2
$17,062,771
+19.9% / -
$59,213,690 / 4
Sun$19,751,941
-28.8% / -
$84,617,303 / 3
$18,356,821
-36.3% / -
$77,211,321 / 3
$15,915,778
-6.7% / -
$75,129,468 / 5
Mon$7,738,293
-60.8% / -
$92,355,596 / 4
$7,465,450
-59.3% / -
$84,676,771 / 4
$7,332,948
-53.9% / -
$82,462,416 / 6
Tue$7,855,090
+1.5% / -
$100,210,686 / 5
$6,503,117
-12.9% / -
$91,179,888 / 5
$11,570,303
+57.8% / -
$94,032,719 / 7
Wed$6,327,187
-19.5% / -
$106,537,873 / 6
$6,021,296
-7.4% / -
$97,201,184 / 6
$12,114,102
+4.7% / -33.5%
$106,146,821 / 8
Thu$6,615,027
+4.5% / -
$113,152,900 / 7
$6,064,109
+0.7% / -
$103,265,293 / 7
$11,020,009
-9% / +13.6%
$117,166,830 / 9
WK 1$113,152,900$103,265,293$89,248,852
FriEst. $10,070,000
+52.2% / -72.9%
$123,223,000 / 8
$10,907,907
+79.9% / -63.7%
$114,173,200 / 8
$12,567,729
+14% / -11.7%
$129,734,559 / 10
SatEst. $14,205,000
+41.1% / -48.8%
$137,428,000 / 9
$12,401,806
+13.7% / -56.9%
$126,575,006 / 9
$13,998,713
+11.4% / -18%
$143,733,272 / 11
SunEst. $12,665,000
-10.8% / -35.9%
$150,093,000 / 10
$10,193,488
-17.8% / -44.5%
$136,768,494 / 10
$12,129,140
-13.4% / -23.8%
$155,862,412 / 12
MonEst. $6,910,000
-45.4% / -10.7%
$157,003,000 / 11
$4,401,023
-56.8% / -41%
$141,169,517 / 11
$8,008,803
-34% / +9.2%
$163,871,215 / 13
TueEst. $11,300,000
+63.5% / +43.9%
$168,303,000 / 12
$9,781,154
+122.2% / +50.4%
$150,950,671 / 12
$10,248,284
+28% / -11.4%
$174,119,499 / 14
WedEst. $11,360,000
+0.5% / +79.5%
$179,663,000 / 13
$8,721,349
-10.8% / +44.8%
$159,672,020 / 13
$4,616,413
-55% / -61.9%
$178,735,912 / 15
ThuEst. $10,120,000
-10.9% / +53%
$189,783,000 / 14
$7,403,217
-15.1% / +22.1%
$167,075,237 / 14
$3,767,510
-18.4% / -65.8%
$182,503,422 / 16
WK 2$76,630,100$63,809,944$65,336,592
FriEst. $10,685,000
+5.6% / +6.1%
$200,468,000 / 15
$9,285,282
+25.4% / -14.9%
$176,360,519 / 15
$6,783,240
+80% / -46%
$189,286,662 / 17
SatEst. $11,700,000
+9.5% / -17.6%
$212,168,000 / 16
$9,884,859
+6.5% / -20.3%
$186,245,378 / 16
$10,114,063
+49.1% / -27.8%
$199,400,725 / 18
SunEst. $10,535,000
-10% / -16.8%
$222,703,000 / 17
$8,244,326
-16.6% / -19.1%
$194,489,704 / 17
$6,109,144
-39.6% / -49.6%
$205,509,869 / 19

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Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:30 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
I hardly think it will hold very good but there is still a slight chance it does not completely melt down after holidays. I think it can get to $330m, with over-performance it could get to $340m.

Looking at IAL's IM it should get to $302m-$307m which is the most conservative at this point IMO.


Sun Dec 30, 2012 2:34 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
$300m is not a lock yet.

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Sun Dec 30, 2012 2:37 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
I have stated my reasons multiple times for that and I don't see it missing $300m at this point.


Sun Dec 30, 2012 2:38 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
If it follows IAL from here on, it makes $293m. $300m is not a lock.

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Sun Dec 30, 2012 2:42 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Yes but it is doing a little better than IAL at this point but anyways don't believe me we will see after next weekend it should be at $300m with IAL's numbers as well.


Sun Dec 30, 2012 2:49 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Nazgul9 wrote:
$300m is not a lock yet.


What Nazgul will say when The Hobbit is at $305 million.


Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:07 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Something else.

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Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:25 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
300 is far from locked. It'll be interesting to see what it does this coming weekend. From there I think you'll be ablew to determine if it hits 300 or not.


Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:21 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
$325m definitely looks like a stretch with the lowered weekend estimate.


Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:37 pm
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