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 June 17-19 Predictions 
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
$30's isn't the floor for The Green Lantern...$20's are. The possibility is there that it could get to Hellboy territory. Though I see high $30's.

Green Hornet $99 m, Thor $180 m, X-men $150 m, and Green Lantern?

I think tracking is way off this week.


Mon Jun 13, 2011 8:45 pm
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Yeah I agree, cant see Green Lantern ourperforming Thor/X Men. It just doesnt have the mainstream support.

What it does have is that its a DC property and the DC fans will come out in force. But thats OW. I still think it can make $30m, but not tracking numbers.

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Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:56 pm
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Pure Phase
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Green Lantern's TV spots are crap. At least the ones I'm seeing. They don't sell the story or character or humor or Reynolds/Lively romance at all. They just promise a shitload of cheesy CGI.

And I keep missing which "critic" was shameless enough to say/write this chestnut: "SUMMER FUN GOES GREEN."

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Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:16 am
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
I got to admit I am suprised at how many people here expect GL to open below $40M. I know he's not Batman or Superman popular, but I'm pretty sure he's more popular than say Ghost Rider and even that opened at $45M. I find it hard to believe that this will open below that considering the agressive marketing, 3D and the fact that kids are just coming out of school. Also funny enough GH looked real crappy too and so did those Fantastic Four movies, but the fans still showed up OW eventhough the legs on those movies were pretty damn bad . It will atleast have a decent opening.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:16 am
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
^ Ghost Rider and Fantastic Four had better trailers and tv spots with better vfx. However, I still see GL opening with 60+m thanks to 3D.

I won't be surprised with a 70m OW. However, legs will be as bad as GR.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:25 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
I see upper 40s for it right now.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:35 am
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
This might be one of those ones where the internet assumes young audiences are much more discerning than they actually are. I think Green Lantern could skew a bit younger... Which may not help. But I'm gonna stay optimistic that this will hit 60 million. :sweat:


Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:58 am
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The Incredible Hulk
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
Nazgul9 wrote:
Keyser Söze wrote:
Also we have seen what 3D does to sequels. Especially ones coming in with meh WOM.

I have seen nothing of the sorts. What i have seen is internet people doing a lot of conjecturing.


if you dont believe Pirates/Panda underperformed bcos of 3d factor, vanilla who works at a theater also confirmed my belief.


Vanilla_Sky_ wrote:
keyser_soze123 wrote:
Fake™ wrote:
keyser_soze123 wrote:
I am confident 3D will pull down the ticket sales and ensure it does not break the midnight record. I am thinking 25M midnights.
Why will 3D pull down ticket sales for midnights?


because of the surcharge. We already are seeing with Shawn's report where he said 2d has a sellout but no sellout for 3D. I am sure theaters will try to force people to see in 3d(by keeping fewer 2D shows) and that will ensure lower ticket sales.


+1000. Working at a theatre during the 3D craze and fall I completely agree with you. The general public just does not like it anymore. However latley I have been noticing theatre showing 2D on 2 screens and 3D on 2 or three. It use to be 1 2D, 3-4 3D for big blockbusters. Its changing which is good.


My comment was about most theatres in general. For example I was looking in the Sunday paper and nearly all the theatre had Panda on 2 screens of just normal 2D and just 1 screen of 3D.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:35 am
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The Incredible Hulk
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Also my early Predictions for Openers this week.

Green Lantern- 46
Mr. Poppers= 16 (Most likley going to be way off my prediction in the summer game.)


Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:39 am
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College Boy Z

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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
MovieDude wrote:
This might be one of those ones where the internet assumes young audiences are much more discerning than they actually are. I think Green Lantern could skew a bit younger... Which may not help. But I'm gonna stay optimistic that this will hit 60 million. :sweat:


I think it'll definitely skew younger and it's probably going to help it reach those $50m heights, maybe more. Father's Day helps too.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:42 am
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
I agree too. Out of all the comicbook / superhero movies coming out this summer this one will deffentially be the safest bet for kids. That appeal combined with the loyal fanbase is the reason why I believe this will atleast reach $50M. After all kid appeal helped out GH and those Fantastic Four movies big time.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:49 am
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Yeah, my young nephews want to see Green Lantern really bad. Seems to have the most kid appeal of the superhero flicks this summer season.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:24 am
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Green Lantern, Super 8, X-Men, Pirates and even The Hangover all seem like they could benefit from Father's Day too.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 11:33 am
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
trixster sucks wrote:
MovieDude wrote:
Green Lantern, Super 8, X-Men, Pirates and even The Hangover all seem like they could benefit from Father's Day too.


They should. And add the fact that there's no NBA finals this Sunday. The Sunday-to-Sunday drops for X-Men and Super 8 is going to be very small.

I expect better drops than normal with these two factors considered.


You could make the case for most movies holding well on Sunday. Even Imagine That only dropped 15% on Father's Day, suggesting Judy Moody could do the same. I feel bad for the dads that would have to endure it, though.

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Tue Jun 14, 2011 11:44 am
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Given the incredible high percentage of over-25 crowd for Super 8, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Sunday increase.

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Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:16 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
trixster sucks wrote:
xiayun wrote:
Given the incredible high percentage of over-25 crowd for Super 8, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Sunday increase.


:er:

Doesn't the age demographic for Super 8 show that there actually would be very little father/son going out to see it? Seems like the main demo for the film are older males with no families or at least older males who are not bringing their families. If they were bringing their families, it would have balanced out the age difference.

It should see a boost, but I think a film like Green Lantern and Mr. Popper Penguins will benefit more from Father's Day than Super 8.


Not sure about that. Families will be much more accommodating to dads this weekend, so the fact that Super 8 didn't bring out all the families and just had many males watching alone or with male friends boosts the potential this frame. Or families could be waiting for this weekend to see the film with dads and as a result created the big imbalance last week.

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Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:33 pm
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
It's really hard to pin families down to one movie. You don't know what the individual demographics of each family member is. I remember the last time I saw a movie with my whole family it was Up in the Air.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 5:24 pm
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
I'm with MovieDude. It all depends on the family. Hell, sometimes I see families with young kids at R-Rated horror movies. I think all of the movies this Sunday will benefit from Father's Day, at least to an extent. The only one that won't is Bridesmaids, IMO. Unless women decide to get together and go to the movies while their partners have the kids.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 7:34 pm
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College Boy Z

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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
All movies benefit except chick flicks. Look at last year: http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/daily/ch ... -20&p=.htm

Iron Man and Robin Hood increased on Sunday. The A-Team barely dropped. And the kids movies all had better holds than usual, though not quite as much as movies directly aimed at males. I think based on this, Green Lantern, X-Men and Super 8 should get the best of this among newer movies. Hangover, Penguins, and Panda should have really great holds.


Tue Jun 14, 2011 7:47 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Green Lantern - $62M
Popper's Penguins - $25M

Fantastic Four in 2005 exceeded expectations because it advertised itself as fun opposite the darker fare like X-Men. Lack of reviews make bad WOM seem inevitable though.


Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:10 am
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Reviews are starting to pour in and guess what there just as bad as most expected. Now I still expect it to have a solid opening since even the first Fantastic Four movie opened to decent numbers, but I expect the legs to be ALOT worse and it probably won't even get past $130M with so much competition behind it.


Wed Jun 15, 2011 1:19 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
The reviews have been awful. It looks like it is as bad as many of us feared.


Wed Jun 15, 2011 2:02 pm
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
Where are all the WB fans who say they can't do no wrong?

Guess what bitches? They make a movie other than Batman and Superman, and delivered turd.


Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:13 pm
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
RT consensus - Noisy, overproduced, and thinly written, Green Lantern squanders an impressive budget and decades of comics mythology.


Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:05 pm
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Post Re: June 17-19 Predictions
As of 4 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that Green Lantern is responsible for 7% of daily sales. Even though Lantern is being overshadowed by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2's 52% daily haul, 7% is certainly not a blockbuster-level figure.

Link - http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stori ... getting-by.

That's actually worse than I expected for GL, but with such bad advance buzz I can't really see fanboys getting excited and rushing to buy tickets as early as possible anyways.


Last edited by Dil on Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:41 pm
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