That 57% share is impressive. It could very well be #1 in presales for the next 3 weeks.

That won't exactly be hard since none of the movies coming out will be any type of competition especially with online ticket sales.

Hmm, I think it needs to just open to around $131-132 million to beat Alice. Shouldn't be THAT unlikely.

Holy crap! I just checked Fandango and there are already 3 midnight sellouts for HP7 and there not even for IMAX. Not even IM2 and Eclipse have sellouts this early.

I wonder if Potter will top Half-Blood Prince's opening day. I am not so sure about that....being that we're not in the summer. Remember, Goblet of Fire topped $100 million OW coming off a $40 million opening day, so that even a $55 million opening day (which would be around $3 million lower than HBP's) would probably still give it $130+ million 3-day.

There are 2 Midnight sellouts near me. I am very shocked to see them this early.

This is going to have an internal multiplier closer to New Moon than GOF.

Anyway, in by a smidge. $337m.

There's still a good chance that it doesn't even get to HP1 total despite opening alot more than that and Alice.

I'll join.

Members:

Dr. Lecter
Jedi Master Carr
BK
Inny Binny
SolC9
Magnus


Anyone else wana hop on board? Goblet of Fire was at $201 million after ten days. I expect this one to be at around $230 million AT LEAST and that coming off a $60+ milion 2nd weekend. And unlike GoF it won't face a $290+ million grossing Narnia a few weeks later.

Drawing comparisons to 2005, Disney have Tron Legacy instead of Narnia and Universal have Little Fockers instead of King Kong.

The three look to be the biggest of the season, of course the comparison is just that, because Fockers is nothing like King Kong and there actually is a Narnia opening, lol.

I'm just hoping for a good movie.

The club is closed now (with six members in it).


If the $65 million OD number is correct, it'll simply need a 2.4 opening-to-total multiplier to pass Alice. Goblet of Fire, the last November Potter release managed 2.82, so it shouldn't be THAT hard.

Hmm did not new you changed it but the answer would have been still no, so it doesn't matter. I still think this will require a push for 300m without a re-release.

I wonder where Harry Potter will place on this chart:

http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/ ... =10&p=.htm


#6 is pretty much a lock, IMO and #5 is very possible too. I do think it could even make it to #4, though.

Yep with a 130m+ OW it should easily pass 230m. The only question is how big drop it will have on Monday

What is with all the doubt in 300. That's locked but 310 isn't. Same for every Potter isn't it?

I am not sure but other than HBP with a push there hasn't been a 300m HP movie unadjusted. GOF was also more frontloaded with November release but that one also did not reach 300m (with good WOM and considering that it still taken one of the best book of the series other than HP1). Inflation rules do not mean increase in the total gross for HP movies. Upcoming competition is also very strong for HP which makes me think the late legs won't be that great. The IMAX push should also soon wear off, though not completely.

Again I am not saying that it is lock but there are chances of that happening which for me are looking more appealing at this time

GoF was more frontloaded? Wut?

OMG where do you come up with your statements? From your statement I can deduce that HP1 is the best HP book followed by GOF? I can get that is your opinion but it's not really general opinion. Usually POA tops best HP books charts. HP2 is usually the bottom one and HP1 is usually near it. I rarely see it among the top choices in various polls.

GOF had a 2.824 multiplier. Frontloaded by holiday standards yes, but not extreme for Potter. Personally I see maybe a 2.4-2.45 multiplier for Potter and based off a $130M min OW that would be
$312-$318.5M total.

Well this is more of the opinion based on the people across me, nothing official about it

I calculated that factor based on the total to OW ratio. In that sense the multiplier was only 2.8 which is the second lowest among HP series behind POA

Umm, you can't treat the Wednesday releases as normal Friday releases. That makes no sense.

Yep just realized that it was a mistake, I was just blindly following BOM numbers

http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/franchis ... htm&p=.htm