After seeing the teaser, 170 mil OW!!

You all just set yourself up for a disappointment.

I would be incredibly pleased if it didn't break the record... but it's probably going to.

if it doesn't, though, disappointment would be far from how i feel.

If it's over $100 mil OW, I'll be happy.

I'm just telling you that the market is going to be DEAD and WAITING for this to open. So if it doesn't get over $140 I'll be shocked.

The market was pretty empty when Dead Man's Chest opened too and that didn't make $150 million opening weekend. I'd argue that the first Pirates film was more beloved than Transformers. Moreover, Pirates had one extra year of inflation.

Not pretty empty.

The market is going to be DEAD when TF2 opens.

Transformers had excellent word of mouth no doubt, but nowhere near Pirates level. Transformers was much more like Spiderman 1; it had enormous hype and bonanza marketing and ended up being a well made crowd pleaser.

As for the market being dead, define "dead". The market wasnt dead when Pirates 2 opened. Superman had just opened to over 100 million opening week. Not HUGE, not but far from dead. TDK opened against Mama Mia. The market being "dead" isnt as good of a thing for movies n in the summer as it is in the winter. In the summer, its the whole of movies that drives in audiences. If Transformers open amidst a group of weekend where the #1 film hasnt topped 30 million, itll help its hype, but I am not sure about getting people to the theaters on opening day.

That said, I see high 140's. I dont think/hope it doesnt beat TDK simply because I doubt itll be able to match TDK's midnights and especially its Sunday drop.

Movies that will be in the theaters when it comes out:

Land of the Lost (opens 3 weeks earlier)
Year One (opens 1 week before, likely to open around $20 mil... maybe more, maybe less)
Up (opens 4 weeks earlier)
Terminator (opens 5 weeks earlier)
NatM 2 (opens 5 weeks earlier)

It's gonna be DEAD.

Taking of Pelham 123 (which will be one of the summer's surprise hits).

Yeah... No.

Complicated names does not a hit make.

If it's over $10 mil on Transformers weekend, then I'll eat your socks.

Not getting the hype....I mean it's not like the first TF movie didn't have a fanbase and everything built in, so it's not the mummy or something where it can expand way over the last one. And it was not nearly as wide loved as other reboots or first entries like batman begins or Spider-man or Quantum of Solace. So why would this jump so much from the last entry? It won't. I see 140m OW as a good MAX not min. Even with that it will still cross 400m total, but not by much. There is no chance this movie will pass up SW and become the third biggest grosser of all time.

I think excel has got it right. Empty marketplace will not ensure OW record. It has to have TDK level of hype/anticipation from 6-60 and men/women. I am skeptical TF2 can do that. While Special Effects looked great in SB teaser, I dont see it wowing audience outside its fan base. That would prevent it from breaking TDK's OW record. I think it will open slightly below DMC and make around 350M.

Now it will not even make 100M during its OW. Unlinke Indy 4, TF2 will have front loaded 5-day.

I think it still could, even with the Wednesday start. But if it does crack that mark, it won't be by much.

It'll do at least 40m on its' wednesday, surely have a strong drop on thursday to 20m at least, and then should surge strongly and stand around 160-180m or so for the 5-day. So yes, it still has a chance to hit 100m OW, but won't go much over.
Those are min numbers for the Wed-Thu, however, more likely I see:
Wed: 52m
Thu: 29m
Fri: 35m
Sat: 31m
Sun: 22m
or so, these are still very early guesses though, if the hype machine in the real world catches up to that of the internet than all of these numbers could surge.

WHY DOES THE UNIVERSE HATE ME SO MUCH???

NO.

This thread was in the process of becoming fucking epic.

Now it's fucking EPIC FAIL.

Don't threaten me. Otherwise I will sue your ass.

One neat thing about the move is that Transformers 2 could end up in the 80's which is really rare.

Damnit to hell!!!

You'll be able to tell pretty close what it *would* have made had it opened on Friday. It'll be somewhere in between the sum of the highest 3 days and highest 4 days, but if it's pretty close to the record it may be too hard to tell if it would have beaten it.

I don't think it would have beaten TDK though for the record - the gross will be spread out somewhat over the course of the Jul 4 holiday. People take days off work and plans get shuffled around and activities get spread out. Dead Man's Chest benefited from kind of coming in just after the peak of the holiday activities. Transformers would have had to do something like that or TDK, IMO. It will get a chance to rake in more total bank this way though.