You are totally correct. WB has an appalling track record over the last decade. The only films to not underperform are Harry Potter and the first two Matrix, but even WB couldnt screw those up (though they almost did - HP3 release date, Revolutions release date).

The next summer kickstarter is Spiderman 3..... so that will break records all over again. X3 should have swapped places with MI3 and opened the summer instead.

I miss Spidey so much

I know - same here - cant wait for the return of Spidey - bringing Venom and co with him!

Well Batman Begins, it was a hit regardless if it didin't make as much as some people thought. It made less because people weren't sure if they should go to it after the awful Batman and Robin. Poseidon failed because Disaster movies are just out. If Twister came out now if it would flop too . People aren't just interested in those kind of movies any more, I think 9/11 caused that.

Though DAT showed people could still pay to watch NY decimated after 9/11....

Regarding Batman Begins, it managed what IMO is a superb gross due to its quality. Its opening weekend suffered due to Batman and Robin more so than WB marketing, but still WB generally misses more than it hits.

You know what still baffles me a lot? That Ice Age: The Meltdown won't make it to $200 million despite such an opening. This is probably the first really frontloaded CGI animated flick to be released. It looks to finish around Madagascar's gross at about $192-194 million.

Exactly.

Quality saved WB last year. Batman Begins and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory were both superior films, and therefore both were 200m+ hits. BTW, that CatCF teaser still gives me nightmares

The same thing will be repeated this year. If SR isn't at least as good as Donner's original, WB can kiss 180m goodbye. Although when I first heard about it, I thought it could do 250m+.

And IMO, Lady in the Water is beyond saving. Everything is against it. The bad WOM of the village, the trailer (what a mess), and the poster (an even bigger mess).

Lady in the Water is M Night, the man wants no promotion for the movie. He is wanting people to go in expecting nothing. I have no idea why, maybe it will be a heck of a film and have amazing legs. It could be who knows with M Night's films. I think Superman Returns will do over 200 easily. If it will do 250 or not I don't know. I thought the trailer was very good and also there is superman stuff everywhere. Go down a cereal isle I was shocked to see him on so many cereal boxes.

You're totally right about M Night. But don't you think people like to expect what they'll be getting for their money? Lady might be a very good movie (and I hope it is), but either way, with that marketing, it won't be a BO hit. The trailer is awful (gives away too much), and the poster is even worse. When I showed the poster to my friend, the first thing she said was "Isn't that the Narnia 2 teaser poster?"

About Superman, I think it could do 200m if it's really good. But I highlt doubt 250m

I see it this way:

Adults - Depends on reviews and WOM. Nostalgia will help, but not much.
Teens - POTC2 will kill it.
Kids - If anything, I think that's the demographic that could get SR to 200m. In fact, if I were WB, I'd go as far as reedit the film to give it a PG rating. I think POTC2 won't be as kid-friendly as part 1. Davy Jones looks too creepy.

Oh, and sorry for the late reply, I just noticed your post now