The worst the film will fall is 50% anything more I would consider craptacualr.

Are you going to concede the 100 million?

It's a strong possibility, yeah, but it's certainly not guaranteed. And, you know, I don't lose until it's officially $100,000,000.

$99,999,999 is not $100,000,000, by the way.

*sigh* Comeon... I gave you and Lecter more credit than this, and really expected you guys to concede this pretty quickly instead of wanting to wait for the inevitable.

I'm not actually not absolutely positive it will cross $100M. Zingy is actually right in this case, it's a very strong possibility but not guranteed. It would've only been guranteed if it opened to $30M.

It's not guaranteed. I'll let you know when I think it is.

If you would have been listening to me for months, you would have seen that guarantee much sooner and would have joined the right club.

I think pottermania has something to do with this moment of weakness of yours.

100 MILLION!!! (that's guaranteed!)

I would say it's almost a guarantee IF it is for sure a lock for best picture and the likely winner of the Globes Comedy/Musical award, which I still think it is.

I think we win Mav.

With the reviews identical to Ray, and with crowded death on every weekend from this time out, I don't know if it can acheive a 4.5 multiplier. Ray was 3.75, with lower theatres, expansions, and without the crowding of the upcoming rest of the year. If it had MDB type reviews, like 95% on RT, yeah it could have awesome Oscar-legs. But it doesn't.

After 3rd weekend we'll know if it'll have staying power to reach $100 mill.
Neither side is winning this weekend.

Shack, your arguments are absolutely terrible. Please think this through with some actual logic. You have shown the inability to be quick on the uptake in the past while everyone else finally sees the light, so this doesn't suprise me.

Before the weekend, I was saying it would need to break 25 mil to have a good chance. I predicted 23 mil range, which is exactly where it ended up. I haven't changed my stance.

Shack, you let others do your thinking for you. That's nothing to start patting yourself on the back for. In fact, it's a bit embarrassing that you would.

I'm taking a break from this site. As I told Lecter last night, this is planned, the issue is not Zingaling or Lecter or DP07, it is strictly Shack and the fact that he walks around the boards stalking the same threads that I read and generally making me hate humanity that much more. I enjoy spirited discussion but it's like talking to a brick wall.

My final word on this is... hrm. My last prediction was 26 million, which was lowered due to the general penetration of the movie via theater and screen counts. I still don't think the prediction was even that bad maybe... 12% higher than the final? I have done worse (see Fantastic Four). The box office wasn't quite as good as the people hoping for good numbers, but not as bad as Shack wanted it to be.

As far as Shack's analysis of 100 million (or close to 100 million) possibility goes, I think he's wrong. I did predict like 95 or 96 (I think Dolcevita is right on the money) and I agree with xiayun in that those of us who say it has 100 million potential will not fully emerge until March. Unlike Ray this is not going to be released on DVD in mid-stream and it should, like other films released around this time, weather the holidays better than films released in October.

Today's not really a day for *gotchas* and admissions of defeat because the numbers can really go either way. Today we learned that it's not an absolute failture and it's not a run away rampant success.

Please. I guess getting good derby scores every week it all letting other people do the thinking for me too, right? Oh yeah, thats right, its the infamous 'Tweaking the consenseous!'

Aw. When are you coming back?

And andaroo



I can understand I can be a hassle a lot of the time, but to physically leave the boards just because of me? If it means that much to you, I suppose I could tone it down from now on. Just stay.

I mean it is just a message board. I for one 99% come here just to kill time and for entertainment.

At least Maverikk can applaud me now for not going with the consensus right?

I still don't think it is going to make $100 million. I remember Libs said once it's going to have a run similar to Master and Commander. That seems about right to me now.

Exactly. If you went with your own thinking, you would have predicted WAY low for WTL. You made one bone headed argument after another on why Johnny Cash wasn't popular. Your prediction for that was nothing more than falling in line like a sheep. Derby scores never have and never will impress me for that very reason.

But that's the problem with you, Mav. You never are happy. I am sure you'll blame me for my prediction, but that one was not in the consensus and yet it was not a good one. So how do you call it?

Lecter, don't be salty because you ONCE AGAIN were wrong. Missing BOTH of these this week was not what you wanted, and I understand the bitterness, but trust me, it's not MY problem.

this shit is gonna die quick

Very intelligent commentary from a clueless foreigner. Lecter can explain to you the error of his ways in that regard.

Ok. First of all, just to inform you, I had my predicts in pretty much BEFORE ANYONE ELSE. I posted them at about 5:00 Thursday afternoon. Second of all, if I was going by everyone else, wouldn't it make sense that because I was on the "Anti-WTL 100 mil" side, that I would be close to Lecter and Zingaling? They were at about 18 and 20 mil respectively. Thirdly, if you want I can give you a basis on exactly why I predicted that way. Big theatre count, it showed up on moviefone early, tracking was good, marketing was abundant and well strategized, etc. Like I do with most movies I also spent a couple minutes looking and comparing its numbers on the-numbers.com, looking at Ray's PTA, and so on.