This is mother of devil stuff here. Just really bizarre and sad for a film with so much going for it.

And Elemental is even worse in a way, but at least to me quite foreseeable in how beige it looked. But kids movies - Pixar or not - always get let off the hook.

Budgets are out of control. They aren't in line with the reality of box office performances in 2023 (except maybe Avatar).

The last movie w/ Transformers characters, Bumblebee, was well-received. The last movie with Flash, Justice League, was horribly received. In hindsight we should’ve seen it coming.

Also, anyone notice how Pixar started going downhill after Lasseter left?
Of course he had to leave because of how he behaved but i think it had an effect on pixar.

It's funny that both of Keaton's Batman movies adjusted opened higher.

He left in November 2017 but still dealt with messes like The Good Dinosaur and Cars 3 before that time.

They pulled their biggest hit after he left with Incredibles 2 but that was likely almost already done. Same with TS4 in 2019 as their 3rd biggest.

Pixar also should have kept to 1 movie a year. Their brand started to dilute trying to push out 2 a year as well as the flood of sequels.

You know who I feel most sorry for in all of this, the director of Elemental. He also was the director of The Good Dinosaur so essentially has now directed 2 of Pixar's 4 worst performing movies box office wise with the others being LY and Onward. Though Onward's OW/total were depressed by Covid so almost certainly feels it would have done $124M+ to pass the others.

So he's more or less directed 2 of the 3 worst performing Pixar movies ever. Not a badge anyone would want to have.

So $60M OW with mixed WOM.... we're looking at a likely $150M total, maybe less. Overseas probably won't be massive either. With a $220M budget, this could wind up being a major money losing bomb for WB. Maybe they should've pulled a Batgirl taken a tax write off on it after all...

The more I look at Elemental's $11.8m Friday, the more I don't think it's all that bad. Its preview number of just $2.4m is awful but on a Friday evening who's really going to go see a kiddie pic? Its Saturday and Sunday numbers should be healthier.

Elemental does benefit from most schools ending this week, could pull a real solid multiplier, 3.5 is 41 million.

Luckily for The Flash next weekend is empty. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts could do with it, too. And Monday is apparently a holiday, so more $$$

Indy probably should have released this weekend honestly. Father's day was huge for Maverick last year.

The only good estimates this weekend are here!

Asteroid City: $790K 3-day, PTA $132K. 4-day $890K.
Past Lives: $761K 3-day, 4day $923K. Total $2.06M

Other's:

1 The Flash $55,100,000
2 Elemental $29,500,000
3 Spider-Man $27,800,000 -50% $280,383,000
4 Transformers $20,000,000 -67% $100,622,000
5 The Little Mermaid $11,600,000 -50% $253,559,129
6 The Blackening $6,000,000
7 Guardians of the Galaxy $5,000,000 -31% $344,360,355
8 The Boogeyman $3,800,000 -47% $32,767,747
9 Fast X $1,620,000 -69% $142,003,000

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse drop is good compared to many others which dropped high 60%'s. Probably will recover well next weekend.

Transformers worst 2nd weekend drop for the franchise ever. If they chose a less busy release date probably could have maybe pulled a $200M total. This may miss $150M. The OW clearly showed there was demand for it.

Fast X looks to miss $150M without a push. Globally still making money though and could still pull off $700M+.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie left the top 10 after 10 weeks.

Think Past Lives should play well for rest of summer, hopefully totals well above $10m.

Overall disappointing weekend. Holdovers all dropped pretty hard and openers flailed. Will be interesting to see how they play for rest of their run.

$55.1M for the Flash is the official estimate. Can it miss $60M for the 4day too while we're at it?

Absolutely horrendous. Can this possibly miss $100M if the estimate goes lower? Anything feels possible here. Dropped 36% on a Saturday and 5% on Sunday impacted by a holiday but could certainly be a higher drop than that.

It definitely can miss $100m. It just has that feeling about it now. The tide in the press has changed, and it's getting a grilling. Even with an empty weekend next weekend, it'll probably just benefit Spider-Verse, lol.

Bad hold for everything outside of Guardians too. Hopefully Father’s Day gets a bigger than expected bump.

Pisses me off that Elemental and Flash bombing still led to all the holdovers dropping 50%.

Awful weekend at the box office, even if Guardians and Asteroid City are bright spots

Mmm missing $100m is a stretch. It's summer, tomorrow's a holiday. If it does finish below $110m though that'd be.. something

The Boogeyman I'd say is the other winner of the weekend with the best hold outside of GOTG.

$3,800,000 -47% drop of almost 1/3 of its theaters. Also had a new horror movie come out too.

Jun 2, 2023 $12,356,486 $3,855 $12,356,486
Jun 9, 2023 $7,152,614 -42% $2,232 $24,973,509
Jun 16, 2023 $3,800,000 -47% $1,776 $32,767,747

It's PTA dropped only 20.4% It's looking like it could get at least a 3.5X multiplier.

Did I forget to mention it has a $35M budget? It looks like a movie about the Boogeyman is going to be more profitable at least purely on domestic box office grosses than The Little Mermaid ($250M), Elemental ($200M), The Flash ($200M), Transformers ($195M) and FastX ($350M). Will also have a better budget multiple than even GOTG3 ($250M). Though Spider-verse has it beat with a $100M budget and likely $350M total.

Yeah but considering it’s Thursday was down less than 30% I’d say dropping 47% is disappointing

It dropped 39% on Thursday when it had 1000 additional theaters showing it. It had the second best hold of the top 10 with another horror movie opening and when all other holdovers other than GOTG fell off a cliff. It's PTA dropped 20%. It's a solid hold given the market overall.

Its drop has more to do with losing 1,000 theaters. Also why TLM dropped hard (lost 800)

This should be the final nail in Ezra Miller’s Hollywood coffin. I’ll never have to look at his stupid face or annoying voice again

If a film is still in 2000+theaters like the Boogeyman, you’d think it would still be pretty easy to find a showing? I’d think theater drops don’t have that much affect on business till they go a lot lower theater count.

Bad weekend all around.

Flash and Elemental both coming in at the very bottom of expectations. Former may miss $150m, the latter $100m.

And all the holdovers suffered from further premium theater and showing losses just to accommodate the openers. Guardians still held well, but pretty minor win for the weekend.

April was pretty empty. Fast X or Transformers could have opened in Mario's empty 3rd-4th weekends such would have gone a long way into spreading out the tentpoles from the last weekend of May through the first weekend of July.

Mario - April 5th
(Breather)
Fast X - April 21st
Guardians 3 - May 5th
(Breather)
Transformers 7 - May 19th
Mermaid - May 26th
Spider-Verse 2 - June 2nd
(Breather)
Elemental - June 16th
Flash - June 23rd
(Breather)
Mission Impossible 7 - July 3rd
Barbie and Oppenheimer - July 14th
(Breather)
Indiana Jones 5 - July 29th (move Haunted Mansion to fall!)

Something like this. But everyone crowded late May through late June.

Lol what of course losing 1/3 of its theaters would result in a bigger drop. Per theater average drop was around 20%

After all that drama in the press, the PR to fix Ezra's image, cancelling Batgirl..... and now this is a BOMB bomb. Green Lantern levels of bomb. How utterly embarrassing for the studio and this is the final nail in the coffin for Snyder's version of DC. Total revamp going forward.

In hindsight we should've seen it coming tbh. Justice League was a badly received bomb, and no one cares about Michael Keaton in 2023. Why would audiences have come out in droves to see this? I feel like Supergirl was also a negative. To the general public she might've just come across as an annoying woke choice instead of having actual Superman.

I feel superhero movies in general are on a steep decline. You could say Guardians and Spider-Verse but not the same. Guardians is more of a sci-fi adventure film, Fifth Element style but more mainstream, it doesn't feel like a superhero movie in the same way even though it's technically Marvel. Spider-Verse is animated and I do think that adds a freshness.