I dont see how that is possible considering average ticket price is going down bcos 3d share is definitely on the downside. Plus I have not seen number of imax growing on the domestic side. It has plateaued out compared to growth in late noughties. So its impossible for Avengers to open to 250M OW with just same number of tickets.

Thor was a fairly prominent character too. And it doesn't matter anyway, because The Avengers' audience watching these solo features go by without attending will create a sense that 'eh, this franchise isn't so great' and they may not be so enthusiastic to attend the sequel because they haven't kept up with the timelines of the individual characters.

Well, I assumed a sharp increase in IMAX tickets.



That's how TA broke down on OW. In 2012 TA opened to 16-17M (~1M tickets), TDKR managed 20M without 3D (~1.3M tickets), so I figured by 2015 30M should be possible (~1.8M tickets in estimated 2015 prices).

"Other premium formats" made up 4% of the TA OW gross, which is about 8.3M dollars, or roughly 500K tickets assuming that the prices are inline with 3D IMAX. I expect an increase there as well, though we have no way of gauging what kind. For the sake of comparison, let's keep it the same (500K tickets). All that is left now is 3D share. Matching TA's 40% share would put 250M in 2015 at 23.5M tickets (with the above scenario). With a 45% share ~23.0M and with a 35% share ~23.9M. With a 30% 24.4M. Considering the decline of 3D, those last scenarios look more likely by 2015.

So, yes I think I jumped the gun a bit in that earlier post. I did rough calculations in my head then, and now I just ran everything in my spreadsheet and it was clearly a bit off. I have TA at 22M tickets sold, so its going to need at least 5-10% jump in admissions to realistically be breaking 250M.

I don't think this will happen

OUT

Out. I think the 3D share will drop and the film won't have the novelty of the first one. Plus most of the post Avengers heat is starting to die off. Not to say this won't do well, but I don't see an increase of over 40 million. The avengers had a multiplier of 3, which I think there should be about the same opening weekend demand as the first.

225 maybe. 250 probably not.

It won't even make 200M on OW.

TDKR with inflation, 3D, and no shooting isn't too far from 250m. Not impossible.

I don't think the shooting really affected TDKR.

OUT.

Not having the novelty factor of the first will definitely hinder the anticipation a bit, but the hype/buzz will still be BIG come OW.

I dont think it happens, but it isn't impossible.

IT DID

This will pull another THG:CF type of OW and stay relatively flat over OW. I think the first one already tapped into its potential four quadrant audience and gave it a great IM over OW.

At this point, I'm thinking $250m TOTAL.

The Dark Knight Rises with 3d would have gotten it to maybe 175 million, inflation to 180 and w/o the shooting maybe 195-200. In no way is that 250 million.

lol. This guy thinks he can travel between alternate timelines.

In China, yeah.

So you literally just argued with yourself. And then proved yourself wrong.

Bravo.

In the USA.

I believe the novelty for Avengers was a big factor but it gained quite a few audience which will balance the decline and then ofcourse a little bit of inflation or increase of IMAX share will help it get close the original's OW.

OUT

Of course it will match the original's opening. It just probably won't be by 50 million.

Ya'll saw the epic trailer, time to join.